This is a severe error. It's quite likely cell weight went up with the upgrade. if anything it's unlikely that it's the _same_ weight as the old cells.
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Extent of Tesla's battery advantage
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This is a severe error. It's quite likely cell weight went up with the upgrade. if anything it's unlikely that it's the _same_ weight as the old cells.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
That's kind of the whole point about increased energy density, capacity goes up while weight stays the same.
What if the volumetric energy density increases, but the gravimetric energy density increases by less.
Great post, 32no. I just want to note that Tesla, before the last pricing changes, was charging $7,000 for the upgrade between a 60 kWh battery pack and a 85 kWh battery pack. That's $10,000 nominal, minus $2,000 for the supercharging access and $1,000 for the Michelin tire upgrade. Divide $7,000 by 25 kWh and you get $280/kWh. Given that Tesla has gotten upper 20's percent gross margin, it is likely that the gross margin on this battery pack is also near that amount since the battery pack is such a large price component of the car. Back out 28% gross margin, and we're looking at roughly a cost of $220/kWh for the battery pack. Add back in about $10/kWh for the battery enclosure structure, we are looking at $230/kWh for the overall pack.
As for the cells, there is a lot of complexity in the actual sheets/bricks, so the actual cost of the cells is far lower. This industry report:
Global Li-ion Cell Shipments to Increase 9% in 2013: IEK-ITIS | CENS.com - Taiwan Industry Updates | Industry In-Focus | HTML |Ta1-CaE-Dy2012/12/03-Id42230
indicated that the 18650 cell market in late 2012 was selling cells at $120 to $200 per kWh to large OEMs given the soft demand from the PC industry. Note that the high end of that spectrum is where the Panasonic NCR18650B sits at that time which is the closest cousin to Tesla's cells available for retail purchase. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that at very high volume, Tesla is paying less than $200/kWh for their cells and that the likes of Lux, Navigant, and others were just completely wrong in their price projections when it comes to Tesla's cells. They may have it right for other cells for other manufacturers.
Overall, the math just about works out. In 2012, before Tesla was shipping in significant volume, the various financial analysts "in the know" were guessing that Tesla's 85kWh battery pack costs Tesla somewhere around $22,500. That goes with the 1/4 the price of the car comment. Then Tesla hit a volume target and Musk noted that they achieved a volume where they hit a lower price for the cells. I believe that is when the cell pricing went below $200/kWh. At $195/kWh for the cells, we're talking $16,575 for the 85kWh battery pack. Add back in $35/kWh for the sheet structure including cooling, battery enclosure, and sheet/battery assembly, we're talking $20,000 for the 85kWh battery pack now.
The Gigafactory should improve cell pricing costs down to the $150/kWh range. Hopefully that drops the cost to Telsa by another $4,000, which brings the 85 kWh pack price down to around $15,000. For the Model 3, looking at 55 kWh of battery, we're looking at about ~$170/kWh for the whole battery which means $9,500 or so (cost to Tesla). Let's say they can do the drive unit at that point (BMS, motor, drive reduction gearing, 3 phase inverter) for $6,000 cost. That's $15,500 for the drive unit and the battery. That leaves around $18,000 for the rest of the Model 3.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Sure, that can happen, but with EV's gravimetric is usually more of a concern, and adding a significantly heavier pack to an existing vehicle such as the Roadster would mess up handling and possibly safety.
Later on in that thread the idea that there was goo in the Model S pack was disputed by someone who had physically touched the cells. CapitolistOpressor conceded that, although they have a patent on it, they may not use it after all
Additionally it was determined that's a RAV4 pack, not a Model S pack. Source: Inside the Tesla battery pack
You can see that the packaging is indeed different than the Model S teardowns: HERE and HERE.
You can see at that coppermotor site the pictures show an individual module with cells removed and no appearance of goo-like coatings.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
The differences aren't that huge:
UR18650A 3.6V 2250mAh 43g
UR18650EA 3.6V 2350mAh 46g
NCR18650 3.6V 2900mAh 45.5g
http://industrial.panasonic.com/www-cgi/jvcr21pz.cgi?E+BA+4+ACA4000+5++WW
Even if you assume the 43g cell for the original 53kWh/56kWh (I have seen both numbers) Roadster and the 45.5g cell for the 70kWh pack, that is a difference of 2.5g per cell. At 6831 cells, that works out to 17kg extra weight.
That changes the number from 70kWh/450kg = 155.56Wh/kg to 70kWh/467kg = 149.89Wh/kg.
Martin Eberhard had indicated the cells in the production car is actually 2400mAh, so it may be that there is no difference in weight as in the 2350mAh vs 2900mAh cell.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Originally Posted by 32no
CHADEMO is capable of 62.5kw, but no car other than Tesla can handle that rate AFAIK.
OK so modify that to
Tesla cars can handle CHADEMO's full output of 62.5kw but no other production car that is sold in more than 15 US states can handle that rate.
I mean really I'd be willing to drive a Kia Soul EV but I can't even buy one within a 1000 miles of my house and I'm not in a rural area.
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There is an awesome new article by Randy Carlson on Seeking Alpha that has amazing information about the future potential of Tesla's batteries. Its an excellent article that anybody who wishes to understand Tesla and their batteries should read.
HERE IS THE ARTICLE
There is a paywall for Seeking Alpha, all they really want you to do is sign up. Out of courtesy for the author, I will not post the body of the article here without his permission.
IN OTHER NEWS, Audi claims that the Audi R8 E-tron achieved 154 wh/kg on the pack level. I'm skeptical. Does anybody have more information?
HERE IS THE ARTICLE
There is a paywall for Seeking Alpha, all they really want you to do is sign up. Out of courtesy for the author, I will not post the body of the article here without his permission.
IN OTHER NEWS, Audi claims that the Audi R8 E-tron achieved 154 wh/kg on the pack level. I'm skeptical. Does anybody have more information?
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
Tesla's current cell cost is believed to be less than $160/kWh. That corresponds to a unit cost of $1.95 for each 18650 cell capable of storing 12.2Wh.
http://articles.sae.org/12833/
The Panasonic cells purchased by Tesla are specifically designed for the automaker and feature a Tesla-patented vent system within the end cap. Battery supplier sources who spoke anonymously estimate Tesla’s cell cost per kW·h to be less than $160.
I have never seen a quote this low.
There is a new article from Anton Wahlman on Seeking Alpha today. It talks about how Volkswagen believes it has reached/will reach cost parity with Tesla. In other words, here is Volkswagen's strategy according to Anton's conversations with insiders. Here are the main points of the article:
-"In terms of the battery technology debate, Volkswagen agrees with Tesla that the shape of the battery cells essentially doesn't matter. The differentiation will be in other technology choices such as chemistry, packaging, thermal management, software and so forth."
-"Volkswagen's strategy to undercut Tesla on battery cost is this: It has standardized on a module size - think a shoe box - into which battery vendors such as Panasonic, LG and Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) can fit either flat/square battery cells, or cylindrical ones such as the ones Tesla has been using.This interchangeability therefore gives Volkswagen the ability to simply play out the battery vendors against each other, without having to redesign the car's hardware. On any given day, Samsung, LG and Panasonic will be willing to sell any of two standardized battery sizes (cylindrical and flat/square) for a different price. At this point, Volkswagen can effectively conduct a "reverse auction" among the suppliers, in order to secure the lowest price."
-"Volkswagen will undercut Tesla on battery cost because it does not put everything on one card, by investing billions of dollars into its own factory whose product has to remain the most technologically competitive, as well as operate at the highest level of capacity utilization in order to be competitive. Volkswagen figures it can consistently pay a lower price per kWh by constantly playing all the battery vendors against each other: Let THEM (the battery cell vendors) make the investment in capex, while WE (Volkswagen) always get the lowest price thanks to competition."
-"In addition to undercutting Tesla on battery CELL cost, Volkswagen will also have it own production of the entire battery PACK. Volkswagen believes it has a reasonable chance to be competitive with the cell vendors, once you go to the pack level. It has its internal battery pack factory that competes with the external cell suppliers such as LG, Samsung and Panasonic."
-[Talking About Audi R8 E-Tron] "7,488 cells in total. You know what that means, folks. It means that Audi is using the same cylindrical cells as Tesla, even though the vendor in this instance is Samsung, not Panasonic."
-"Finally, Volkswagen emphasized that the industrial economics of producing all flavors of a car - gasoline, diesel, hybrid, plug-in hybrid and fully electric totally integrated on the same assembly line are huge. With demand for electric car being both small, uncertain and highly fluctuating in the near term, allocating a specific car and production line to a low-volume electric car, is simply a recipe for losing your shirt. Volkswagen is engineering almost all of its cars to be made with all of these powertrain combinations going forward. There will be a plug-in hybrid and fully electric version of almost every single nameplate under the VW umbrella. Volkswagen already offers more plug-in electric models than any other automaker, and it should soon be at 40 different plug-in electric models."
-"The one area where Volkswagen does not want to take as a direct and active role in the electric car food chain, is the charging network. While it dabbles in small initiatives here and there, it basically wants to stay out of it. It wants other entities, such as gasoline stations, parking garages or other independent service providers, to deal with electric car infrastructure."
I have a lot to say in response to this, and I will probably formulate it in my own article.
-"In terms of the battery technology debate, Volkswagen agrees with Tesla that the shape of the battery cells essentially doesn't matter. The differentiation will be in other technology choices such as chemistry, packaging, thermal management, software and so forth."
-"Volkswagen's strategy to undercut Tesla on battery cost is this: It has standardized on a module size - think a shoe box - into which battery vendors such as Panasonic, LG and Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) can fit either flat/square battery cells, or cylindrical ones such as the ones Tesla has been using.This interchangeability therefore gives Volkswagen the ability to simply play out the battery vendors against each other, without having to redesign the car's hardware. On any given day, Samsung, LG and Panasonic will be willing to sell any of two standardized battery sizes (cylindrical and flat/square) for a different price. At this point, Volkswagen can effectively conduct a "reverse auction" among the suppliers, in order to secure the lowest price."
-"Volkswagen will undercut Tesla on battery cost because it does not put everything on one card, by investing billions of dollars into its own factory whose product has to remain the most technologically competitive, as well as operate at the highest level of capacity utilization in order to be competitive. Volkswagen figures it can consistently pay a lower price per kWh by constantly playing all the battery vendors against each other: Let THEM (the battery cell vendors) make the investment in capex, while WE (Volkswagen) always get the lowest price thanks to competition."
-"In addition to undercutting Tesla on battery CELL cost, Volkswagen will also have it own production of the entire battery PACK. Volkswagen believes it has a reasonable chance to be competitive with the cell vendors, once you go to the pack level. It has its internal battery pack factory that competes with the external cell suppliers such as LG, Samsung and Panasonic."
-[Talking About Audi R8 E-Tron] "7,488 cells in total. You know what that means, folks. It means that Audi is using the same cylindrical cells as Tesla, even though the vendor in this instance is Samsung, not Panasonic."
-"Finally, Volkswagen emphasized that the industrial economics of producing all flavors of a car - gasoline, diesel, hybrid, plug-in hybrid and fully electric totally integrated on the same assembly line are huge. With demand for electric car being both small, uncertain and highly fluctuating in the near term, allocating a specific car and production line to a low-volume electric car, is simply a recipe for losing your shirt. Volkswagen is engineering almost all of its cars to be made with all of these powertrain combinations going forward. There will be a plug-in hybrid and fully electric version of almost every single nameplate under the VW umbrella. Volkswagen already offers more plug-in electric models than any other automaker, and it should soon be at 40 different plug-in electric models."
-"The one area where Volkswagen does not want to take as a direct and active role in the electric car food chain, is the charging network. While it dabbles in small initiatives here and there, it basically wants to stay out of it. It wants other entities, such as gasoline stations, parking garages or other independent service providers, to deal with electric car infrastructure."
I have a lot to say in response to this, and I will probably formulate it in my own article.
VW has the profits to pursue multiple strategies, but whereas GM's investor's are too short term focused, VWs investor's are too EU focused.
In both cases (VW, GM) stakeholder consideration are a drag on the company getting a globally competitive EV solution like Tesla or Nissan.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
As usual Wahlman misses the real point of the data he has: Audi may have finally come close to the energy density Tesla had in 2012, and since the ETron is most likely going to be much more expensive than the Model S they have probably failed to meet the price point Tesla had in 2012. On the other hand, VW/Audi has just validated Tesla's vision and methodology.
And that's the big mistake because customers would likely wait for an adequate network of fast chargers and 3rd parties may want to wait until there are enough owners to build out. The chicken or the egg problem.
TM knew it couldn't rely on third parties to build a charging network if the Model S were to succeed.
bluenation
Member
yep.
i like VW strategy, and think that's a fair and reasonable way to pursue this.
but the charging part....that's a dealbreaker. Dealers and gas stations have clearly shown they are not the dudes to be depended for EV infrastructure. Let alone, you cant really make money off the charging, unless you charge exorbitant rates. which if that happens , you can kiss EV conversion good bye, TCOO is gonna get shat on pretty hard.
i like VW strategy, and think that's a fair and reasonable way to pursue this.
but the charging part....that's a dealbreaker. Dealers and gas stations have clearly shown they are not the dudes to be depended for EV infrastructure. Let alone, you cant really make money off the charging, unless you charge exorbitant rates. which if that happens , you can kiss EV conversion good bye, TCOO is gonna get shat on pretty hard.
It's funny how what he sees as positives I see as negatives.
Outsourcing is the standard among legacy automakers and it looks like they're banking on the same approach with EVs. It's been pretty clear so far that a lot of Tesla's advantages are coming from vertical integration.
The outsourcing approach appeals to people like Wahlman who seem to believe that the market is a magical thing that produces the perfect product under the correct competitive pressure conditions. In reality, asking others to innovate for you is not going to be consistent with long-term success. I think what ultimately will happen is that instead of making a "shoe box" and trying to outsource the cheapest cells to put in it, they will realize that it is cheaper and more efficient to just outsource the whole battery pack to Tesla.
The problem is that it isn't what Tesla had in 2012. Tesla had an energy density of 141.67 wh/kg in 2012, and using the updated Roadster figures, we get an energy density of 155.56 wh/kg. Audi claims 154 wh/kg energy density and is supposedly using the same 18650 cells as Tesla except from Samsung instead of Panasonic. Also, you say that they failed to meet Tesla's 2012 price point... But this is for the CAR, not necessarily the BATTERY.
Anyway, I am highly skeptical of Audi's energy density claims, and I'm also confident that their price point is above Tesla's. I see other problems with Volkwagen/Audi's "strategy". Mainly, it's not really a strategy at all. It's inane to imply that the innovation that the EV battery industry was looking for was a shoe box design. As we all know, Tesla is looking to approve more battery suppliers currently, and obviously their pack is also a shoe box - just for 18650 cells. So Volkwagen's advantage must be that they are flexible in terms of the form factor, which is a contradiction of the statement that Volkwagen agrees with Tesla that the form factor doesn't matter (Did Tesla actually ever sat this?). Meanwhile, if this shoebox is as flexible as Audi claims, it will not be able to make up the floor pan of the car because that would limit the types of form factors that would be able to fit, especially large format batteries. This is a huge disadvantage because having the battery make up the floor pan of the car saves weight/cost because the battery takes the place of other structural members that would otherwise have to be there, it lowers the center of gravity of the car for better handling, and it adds structural rigidity to the passenger compartment which adds to safety. Having the battery as the floor pan in the car is therefore incredibly advantageous from an engineering standpoint. Moreover, form factor does matter, and the fact that Tesla is working with the best form factor almost exclusively actually gives them an advantage. Cylindrical format is the best because it is the most cost efficient and can potentially be the most energy dense of all the form factors. Finally, as others have mentioned, outsourcing is absolutely not an advantage over vertical integration, since lower costs can be achieved with vertical integration.
I am unsure how VW plans on "undercutting" Tesla on pack costs, so I can't say anything about that.
As for integrating gasoline, diesel, hybrid, plug-in-hybrid, and fully electric cars on the same assembly line for higher efficiency, I completely disagree about the advantages of that. This essentially proves that Volkwagen is not taking advantage of each of the powertrains and does not reap the full benefit. It's a similar situation to when our defense budget guys try to make an aircraft for multiple purposes in a supposedly cost cutting move, and it ends up being mediocre at everything, and extremely expensive. All the most successful EVs - Nissan Leaf, Chevy Volt, BMW i3 are cars that are designed around the EV or plug in platform.
And the biggest mistake of all, of course, is not making a charging network. Of course your electric cars will be low volume if you don't make any attempt to contribute to the infrastructure with your own fast charge stations. Volkswagen will not get anywhere with their EVs without a fast charge solution. Period.
I think VW's approach is the best conservative approach. It pretty much guarantees VW will not lead on EVs but at same time makes sure they won't be left out.
Their approach is to minimize the cost of building EVs, PHEVs and ICE cars by using the same platform but in that sense they will be making compromises. This is seen in the e-Tron which has a larger battery than Tesla but less range.
On top of that, not participating in the charging network is also a poor decision on their part. They can let private parties do it if they want but they also need to encourage it. But I guess VW is thinking of just letting others do it for them. Supercharger network can be licensed at any time and the CCS is being built out by the others. But again, seems to be in tune with their approach of not leading but following.
Personally I think VW choosing their approach is a good thing overall. The reason is because they will make all their cars available in all options of drivetrains and getting more people familiar with EVs. And if they take the follower approach while supporting EVs, this will actually help Tesla.
From my understanding, the Audi R8 e-tron has a 92kwh battery that weights 600 kg. Tesla Model S has a 85kwh battery that weights 544 kg.
92000 / 600 = 153.33 wh/kg
85000 / 544 = 156.25 wh/kg
Am I missing something?
The thing is, Audi might even be using Tesla cells. If we remember, when Tesla was in talks with Samsung a few years back to supply batteries. But at the time Samsung did not have the capability to make the batteries. So Tesla decided to work with Samsung to get them up to speed technologically.
Samsung is expected to provide 8% of Tesla batteries this year:
Tesla Motors Discussing Battery Supply Deal With Samsung SDI
It is no coincidence that Samsung out of nowhere has 18650 cells with energy densities close to those of Tesla. My guess is Tesla and Panasonic might be licensing their technology to Samsung. Which we would probably know if we can learn about if they use NCA or NMC(used by Samsung and BMW). I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla allows spare capacity of the cells to be sold to 3rd parties like limited production Audi R8 e-Tron.
If Audi's plan is to shoebox and use the cheapest cells, then they are unofficially claiming they plan to use Tesla's cells going forward. Not sure how they plan to undercut them on it though.
Their approach is to minimize the cost of building EVs, PHEVs and ICE cars by using the same platform but in that sense they will be making compromises. This is seen in the e-Tron which has a larger battery than Tesla but less range.
On top of that, not participating in the charging network is also a poor decision on their part. They can let private parties do it if they want but they also need to encourage it. But I guess VW is thinking of just letting others do it for them. Supercharger network can be licensed at any time and the CCS is being built out by the others. But again, seems to be in tune with their approach of not leading but following.
Personally I think VW choosing their approach is a good thing overall. The reason is because they will make all their cars available in all options of drivetrains and getting more people familiar with EVs. And if they take the follower approach while supporting EVs, this will actually help Tesla.
From my understanding, the Audi R8 e-tron has a 92kwh battery that weights 600 kg. Tesla Model S has a 85kwh battery that weights 544 kg.
92000 / 600 = 153.33 wh/kg
85000 / 544 = 156.25 wh/kg
Am I missing something?
The thing is, Audi might even be using Tesla cells. If we remember, when Tesla was in talks with Samsung a few years back to supply batteries. But at the time Samsung did not have the capability to make the batteries. So Tesla decided to work with Samsung to get them up to speed technologically.
Samsung is expected to provide 8% of Tesla batteries this year:
Tesla Motors Discussing Battery Supply Deal With Samsung SDI
It is no coincidence that Samsung out of nowhere has 18650 cells with energy densities close to those of Tesla. My guess is Tesla and Panasonic might be licensing their technology to Samsung. Which we would probably know if we can learn about if they use NCA or NMC(used by Samsung and BMW). I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla allows spare capacity of the cells to be sold to 3rd parties like limited production Audi R8 e-Tron.
If Audi's plan is to shoebox and use the cheapest cells, then they are unofficially claiming they plan to use Tesla's cells going forward. Not sure how they plan to undercut them on it though.
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