Final Model 3 reveal may not happen before production begins in July 2017, per Elon

[alseTrick]

I hoping for something more like the Jaguar i-Pace interior.

What?

 

[alseTrick]

I don't think a lot of people honestly believed we would see hundreds of thousands of Model 3s hitting the road this year.

Are you kidding? There were plenty of people who thought just that. It was bizarre.

 

[dgpcolorado]

The differentiators for the S will be forthcoming, but there are plenty of owners who want a larger sedan, not a smaller one. I think that market will remain viable as well.

Yes. I initially thought that the S was too big but after driving one for awhile I really appreciate the liftback and storage space. I can get my rather large mountain bike into it easily. Last weekend I put a sliding screen door into it with no trouble. I can even sleep in it when camping, although my tent has more headroom. Since the S is now my only car, that sort of stuff matters, and having only one car in my garage I have lots of extra space for the first time. My concerns about it being too big are gone (and I don't have to drive it in SF, parking here is really easy).

Then the Model 3 reveal left me very disappointed: no liftback, just a trunk, no instrument cluster, just an awkward center display panel (that is a complete non-starter for me), no space for a bicycle, so that means a hitch mount bike rack with extra hassle and aerodynamic drag. It just made me like my S more, so when it comes to replacing it I am leaning toward another CPO Model S instead of a Model 3. I'll wait to see how the Model 3 shakes out before deciding; no hurry since I am much too low income to qualify for the federal tax credit so I'll leave that to the folks who can use it.

 

[ohmman]

Last weekend I put a sliding screen door into it with no trouble.

The cargo capacity aspect of the S isn't lost on me, either. Last weekend, I went to the lumber store and had them rip a 4x8 sheet of plywood into 2x8. And yes, that fits with the passenger seat all the way forward. It won't fit in my X, and it likely won't fit in the 3.

 

[Model 3]

Yep, 60, 70, 75kWh versions of S and X will get much less love when 3 is real.
I expect the demand for them will drop so much that Tesla will cancel them.

The 70 is already long gone. And X60 too. I guess you are right about the S60, but I think the 75 is safe for now. At least as S.

 

[ecarfan]

Yep, 60, 70, 75kWh versions of S and X will get much less love when 3 is real.
I expect the demand for them will drop so much that Tesla will cancel them. If not immediately then after MS redesign for 2170 battery.

I do not for a moment believe it remotely possible that when the Model 3 is readily available that the smaller battery versions of the S/X will be "cancelled". The S and X are very different cars from the 3 and are targeted at very different markets.

My expectation is that as large numbers of Model 3's start to be delivered that will raise public awareness of Tesla cars and S/X sales are likely to rise even faster than they are now.

As for the idea that there will be a "MS redesign for 2170 battery", as you wrote, changing the cell type in the pack does not constitute a "redesign" in my opinion. It's just a cell type change which is invisible to the buyer except for it potentially adding slightly more range. Nothing else in the car has to change except for the firmware. The car will look and operate the same, it will just go farther on a charge. And in fact Tesla could choose to change the cell type but use fewer cells and keep the range the same, while increasing their profit margin per car and reducing the vehicle weight. Will Tesla take that approach? I have no idea.

 

[dgpcolorado]

I do not for a moment believe it remotely possible that when the Model 3 is readily available that the smaller battery versions of the S/X will be "cancelled". The S and X are very different cars from the 3 and are targeted at very different markets.

My expectation is that as large numbers of Model 3's start to be delivered that will raise public awareness of Tesla cars and S/X sales are likely to rise even faster than they are now.

That's a novel idea, at least to me.

As for the idea that there will be a "MS redesign for 2170 battery", as you wrote, changing the cell type in the pack does not constitute a "redesign" in my opinion. It's just a cell type change which is invisible to the buyer except for it potentially adding slightly more range. Nothing else in the car has to change except for the firmware. The car will look and operate the same, it will just go farther on a charge. And in fact Tesla could choose to change the cell type but use fewer cells and keep the range the same, while increasing their profit margin per car and reducing the vehicle weight. Will Tesla take that approach? I have no idea.

My understanding is that the 2170 cells require a taller battery pack so I would think that a significant redesign is necessary for the S and X to use them. If so, it would also be hard to retrofit a new battery pack in the older cars. I'm just guessing though.

 

[Model 3]

My understanding is that the 2170 cells require a taller battery pack so I would think that a significant redesign is necessary for the S and X to use them.

I think I remember someone that has opened a battery pack said that there was room for the taller cells in the same housing as is currently used.

 

[dgpcolorado]

...What would have changed in the last 3 months to cause such an unconventional deviation from plan? A sharp drop off in S/X orders?

I've been wondering if there has been a drop off in S/X orders since they ended unlimited free Supercharging on January 15th; it is certainly what I would have expected. Tesla delayed the announcement of the 100D until after that date, perhaps to help bolster sales. I think they will release some other updates to the cars in order to keep sales going. Model S and X sales are helping pay for the development of the Model 3, after all, so Tesla really needs the revenue to keep coming in.

 

[Model 3]

I do not for a moment believe it remotely possible that when the Model 3 is readily available that the smaller battery versions of the S/X will be "cancelled".

I think the "new" 60(D) was introduced to try to get TM3 reservation holders to get into the Model S/X instead of waiting in line for the TM3. So I do think that will be dropped as soon as the 3 is in production (or sooner). But they will keep the 75(D).

 

[AustinPowers]

You'd be surprised. Some people in the market for a 3 (like myself) were expecting to spend around $60k on a very well equipped 3. That is getting within spitting distance of a new Model S 60. Granted, the S would be a base model, but I think people here have made that switch. I bought a CPO S for the price I would pay for a 3, and I know several 3 reservation holders here have done that.

You are forgetting that I am not in the US!
The most basic S 60 over here starts at about 82K Euro, which is about 86K USD! Nowhere near 60K USD.
Even the cheapest CPO Model S's over here start at around 72K Euro, and those are four to five years old with dozens of thousands of miles on the clock.

In Germany, Model S (and even more so Model X), are high end luxury vehicles that only a select few can afford, hence the very low sales numbers of those models but very high interest in the Model 3.

 

[AustinPowers]

Until now, only the Model S and Model X fulfilled those requirements. Now the Model 3 will meet those requirements at half the price. Our household has reservations for three Model 3s and we already have one S in the garage and another S on order, replacing one that was just sold last month.

Good for you, but if you are in such an income bracket where you can afford to spend around 200 to 250K USD on cars, you are not what would be the typical Model 3 buyer over here.

 

[AustinPowers]

So, you're saying that you haven't noticed the surprising number of "couldn't wait, bought a CPO" and "couldn't wait, bought a base S60" posts appearing here in TMC as well as in various Tesla owner groups? At least in California (which, as I recall, accounts for something like 25% of deliveries), a brand new base Model S 60 starts at around $61k after incentives. Heck, if the Model 3 had been available a year and a half ago, then I probably wouldn't have ordered my Model S 70D--just because you have the money doesn't necessarily mean that you want to blow it on a car.

Again, I was coming from a German perspective!

 

[McHoffa]

Keep in mind that the first 5,000 or so Model 3 cars are going to employees (my estimate). Since production has to ramp up gradually, that is likely several months worth of production.

He said 1000 per week in July, 2000 per week in August, and 4000 per week in September, then 5000 per week toward end of year. Employees should all have their cars by September if they're on track.

No, that is the final unveil. He has now said that there will be an unveil#3 in the spring, and that the final car will not be shown until around production start in July, whatever that unveil# is.

I didn't hear anything about him saying there would be a reveal #3 in the spring AND a final reveal closer to production. The only time spring was mentioned was last fall. But, maybe they'll do a HUD reveal that's really more geared toward Model S/X in spring like they did with hardware 2.0, and mention that "Oh, and this will also be included in the Model 3"

 

[Model 3]

I didn't hear anything about him saying there would be a reveal #3 in the spring AND a final reveal closer to production. The only time spring was mentioned was last fall.

You are correct, he did not say that in the Q&A now. It was that from last fall I was talking about.

But, maybe they'll do a HUD reveal that's really more geared toward Model S/X in spring like they did with hardware 2.0, and mention that "Oh, and this will also be included in the Model 3"

Something like that is what I'm thinking yes. Not necessarily a HUD, but something like that...

 

[Jayc]

I hoping for something more like the Jaguar i-Pace interior.

Please no wooden trims from yesteryear. Tesla can do much better than that I'm quite certain.

 

[dhanson865]

I never understood that. No one I know who is interested in a Model 3 would switch to a Model S or X instead, no matter what. I mean, if they could afford a Model S or X, they wouldn't be interested in the Model 3 in the first place.
There is after all a slight difference in being able to afford a 40K Euro car versus a 100+K Euro car, isn't there?

The only factor that shifted is we now know the price of non free supercharging. At the time of reservation that was still an unknown.

Still the price of a CPO or new Model S between then and now vs a 3 later is likely to outweigh supercharging fees so its more emotional than logical I think.

 

[dhanson865]

He said 1000 per week in July, 2000 per week in August, and 4000 per week in September, then 5000 per week toward end of year. Employees should all have their cars by September if they're on track.

those numbers were for individual parts not completed cars, you have to add delay for any missing parts, manufacturing, and QC, then give employees time to transfer funds and accept delivery.

Just getting 4000 pair of headlight assemblies a week in September doesn't mean any employees have taken their final delivery yet.

 

[DarthPierce]

those numbers were for individual parts not completed cars, you have to add delay for any missing parts, manufacturing, and QC, then give employees time to transfer funds and accept delivery.

Just getting 4000 pair of headlight assemblies a week in September doesn't mean any employees have taken their final delivery yet.

While true, the amount of space needed to store raw parts/partially finished parts/ completed but unsold cars is enormous. Expect that raw parts are transformed into shipped cars ASAP. If there is some reason the line is only building 1k/week, the factory will absolutely not be accepting more than 1k sets of parts... Asking for 4k sets of parts/week means that IS the build rate.

Think about the amount of space 4x (4000-1000) = 12,000 extra wheels per week would occupy. (not to mention the other thousands upon thousands of parts...) Tesla will be taking shipments from most suppliers twice a week if not daily for the exact number being built.

 

[dhanson865]

While true, the amount of space needed to store raw parts/partially finished parts/ completed but unsold cars is enormous. Expect that raw parts are transformed into shipped cars ASAP. If there is some reason the line is only building 1k/week, the factory will absolutely not be accepting more than 1k sets of parts... Asking for 4k sets of parts/week means that IS the build rate.

Think about the amount of space 4x (4000-1000) = 12,000 extra wheels per week would occupy. (not to mention the other thousands upon thousands of parts...) Tesla will be taking shipments from most suppliers twice a week if not daily for the exact number being built.

and if not built the numbers ordered will change, 1000, 2000, 4000 numbers he gave were guidance to suppliers not hard and fast orders or actual production numbers.

His goal is to not have a shortage of parts, they actually have a huge amount of space inside and outside for storage and I'm sure they'd rather have to figure out where to put 500 of something than to be short 500 of it and have to sideline 500 partially assembled cars or slow the line.

Cost, complexity, size, weight, and other factors will decide if Tesla is willing to stockpile thousands of parts. They know what they can store or can't and why it would be a bad idea or impossible if it is.

So again, just because he said 4,000 a week in Sept doesn't mean a single car has been delivered by that point. It's just soft guidance for suppliers, which is why I said

those numbers were for individual parts not completed cars, you have to add delay for any missing parts, manufacturing, and QC, then give employees time to transfer funds and accept delivery.

Just getting 4000 pair of headlight assemblies a week in September doesn't mean any employees have taken their final delivery yet.