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FSD Beta 10.11

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#961
Still nothing for us 10.10.2 peasants

B9E41549-F676-4BCD-9EC9-73FCD5D278B4.png
 
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#964
Ramphex said:
Still nothing for us 10.10.2 peasants
Click to expand...

I'm not a peasant. I'm a valuable source of data. That's the deal for being a beta user--early access for me, giving up privacy to be a data source for Tesla.

Start from the premise that the people deciding what versions of FSD beta to roll out to the fleet are motivated solely by what's in the interests of Tesla. It's not a product yet, they're not trying to deliver it yet, so as a FSD beta user I shouldn't have any expectation or feel any entitlement to the latest and greatest version.

Given those premises, ask yourself: what is in the interests of Tesla?

First, as a software developer, I want to know whether or not my new version of software is actually an improvement over my old version. The best way to do that is A/B Testing (go look it up). You move a small number of users to the new version and then watch carefully whether the new version is better than the old version. You can't just move everyone to B after a small period of time before you know the A version is better, because in a dynamic environment (to include things like changing seasons) you want to hold constant as many variables as possible.

So what we're seeing is consistent with 10.10.2 being a pretty good release, with a known and reasonable rate of disconnects. 10.11 throws a lot of new tech into the stack, plus adds Canada. It's not too surprising that 10.11.1 and 10.11.2 are being pushed to the 10.11.0 users, as that's consistent with the 10.11 stack needing some serious refinement before it's better than 10.10.2 by metrics that (likely) include disconnects, collision alerts, and so forth.

My interpretation (as a 10.10.2 user) is that I'm in the B (scientific control) group. I'll only get upgraded after the 10.11.x branch both stabilizes and is demonstrated to Tesla management through objective measurements to be better than 10.10.2. That might happen next week if all goes well, but they might not reach that bar until 10.11.3, 10.11.4, etc. My continued use of 10.10.2 is still useful to Tesla to provide that solid baseline, so it doesn't do me any good to sit and stare at the app waiting for upgrade notification for at least a week.
 
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#965
wknickless said:
So what we're seeing is consistent with 10.10.2 being a pretty good release, with a known and reasonable rate of disconnects. 10.11 throws a lot of new tech into the stack, plus adds Canada. It's not too surprising that 10.11.1 and 10.11.2 are being pushed to the 10.11.0 users
Click to expand...
It looks like 10.11 was released as a 10% sampling of FSD Beta population (roughly 6k vehicles). 10.11.1 was released to another random 10% of the full FSD Beta population (so also around 6k vehicles but now also pulling 10% of those who got 10.11), and it also added new Canadian testers roughly 20% of this version's population. So in terms of absolute numbers, before 10.11.2, the FSD Beta population was roughly:
  • 1k Canada 10.11.1
  • 6k US 10.11.1
  • 5k US 10.11
  • 49k US 10.10.2
For reference, FSD Beta 10.2 back in October likely had a total population of around 6k, so even these "small 10% rollouts" have similar statistical/confidence intervals except there's true-r experimental comparisons that can be made now instead of potentially faulty observations comparing "last week's disengagement data to this week" (e.g., maybe weather / precipitation was different across time).

Similarly, if Autopilot team wants to test out new behaviors, e.g., vector predictions of intersections, maybe a population of 6k vehicles like the original full 10.2 population is sufficient to evaluate it without "risking" the full 60k population to unproven changes.
 
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#967
wknickless said:
I'm not a peasant. I'm a valuable source of data. That's the deal for being a beta user--early access for me, giving up privacy to be a data source for Tesla.

Start from the premise that the people deciding what versions of FSD beta to roll out to the fleet are motivated solely by what's in the interests of Tesla. It's not a product yet, they're not trying to deliver it yet, so as a FSD beta user I shouldn't have any expectation or feel any entitlement to the latest and greatest version.

Given those premises, ask yourself: what is in the interests of Tesla?

First, as a software developer, I want to know whether or not my new version of software is actually an improvement over my old version. The best way to do that is A/B Testing (go look it up). You move a small number of users to the new version and then watch carefully whether the new version is better than the old version. You can't just move everyone to B after a small period of time before you know the A version is better, because in a dynamic environment (to include things like changing seasons) you want to hold constant as many variables as possible.

So what we're seeing is consistent with 10.10.2 being a pretty good release, with a known and reasonable rate of disconnects. 10.11 throws a lot of new tech into the stack, plus adds Canada. It's not too surprising that 10.11.1 and 10.11.2 are being pushed to the 10.11.0 users, as that's consistent with the 10.11 stack needing some serious refinement before it's better than 10.10.2 by metrics that (likely) include disconnects, collision alerts, and so forth.

My interpretation (as a 10.10.2 user) is that I'm in the B (scientific control) group. I'll only get upgraded after the 10.11.x branch both stabilizes and is demonstrated to Tesla management through objective measurements to be better than 10.10.2. That might happen next week if all goes well, but they might not reach that bar until 10.11.3, 10.11.4, etc. My continued use of 10.10.2 is still useful to Tesla to provide that solid baseline, so it doesn't do me any good to sit and stare at the app waiting for upgrade notification for at least a week.
Click to expand...
Long post to just say “hey, I don’t get jokes”

Good ol west coast
 
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#974
SK360 said:
I needed a good laugh today.
Click to expand...
Ok, ok, this Tesla walks into a bar, the bartender says, what are you drinking, the Tesla says I've been drinking 10.10.2 but I'd like to try 10.11.2 today. The bartender says, get out of here punk, we don't serve pheasants round these here parts. Ok.........you had to be there........from The Piano Has Been Drinking, Tom Waits
 
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