FSD rewrite will go out on Oct 20 to limited beta

[mikes_fsd]

Actually they do.

LMAO!
No, my friend, you just read that in a press release.
In reality:

• Only folks that were already in the NDA controlled beta program are allowed to schedule rides (but now without an NDA and they get to bring other humans as pets)
• All others have to get on a waiting list -- like I am -- and wait for that glorious day of being deemed worthy by Waymo.

 

[outdoors]

On the limited beta with expert drivers/careful drivers:

Wonder what the criteria is. Maybe some:

1. Low number of disengagements for not interacting with steering wheel
2. Miles driven with low number of above
3. Experts that regularly race up Pike Peak
4. 10 and 2 drivers via the interior webcam for careful drivers
5. Low number of hard braking events (sorry for those track days now)

 

[diplomat33]

LMAO!
No, my friend, you just read that in a press release.
In reality:

• Only folks that were already in the NDA controlled beta program are allowed to schedule rides (but now they get to bring other humans as pets)
• All others have to get on a waiting list -- like I am -- and wait for that glorious day of being deemed worthy by Waymo.

Are those people you mention part of the general public? Yes.
Will more people who are part of the general public be able to ride very soon? Yes.

But we are going way off topic for this thread. If you want to argue about Waymo, we should probably take it to the Waymo thread.

 

[Myfirstone]

Please “Elon” push it to my car please!! MS AP1 MCU1 it’s terrible with software 2020.36.11 ccacdb181f16 .........

my mcu is crashing after I visit the new adres and when I’m stepping in my car and select the new navigation location it’s
**** crashing. (E mobile connection in the EU)

 

[powertoold]

How about someone who paid for FSD leasing a car in 2016, then in 2019 returned the car after paying off 60% of the FSD price plus interest and got ABSOLUTELY NOTHING from the FSD feature? Elon says the car is more valuable, but Tesla leasing department says the feature depreciated while in vaporware state. I guess when you say "I don't think any of us actually lost anything as consumers" you don't include money, and dismiss "nothing to complain" by saying "it's only money, I have unlimited supply of it", right? Perhaps there are people out there who don't have an unlimited supply of money and don't consider "it's only money" as a valid excuse?

At the time you paid for FSD, other premium driver assistance packages were just as costly, were not as good, and had nowhere as much potential.

The reason I said that we didn't lose anything as consumers because Tesla's driver assistance system was and is currently the best you can buy for the money. And at this point, it may become even better than we expected with the rewrite.

 

[boonedocks]

That is not true. We have videos from real people not under NDA anymore. We also have blogs that detail how the tech works. We also have reports from real users on reddit who are not under NDA anymore.

Tesla has a real video of a Model X doing a completely autonomous drive including dropping off the passenger and parking itself. Doesn't make it true tho. LMAO

 

[diplomat33]

Tesla has a real video of a Model X doing a completely autonomous drive including dropping off the passenger and parking itself. Doesn't make it true tho. LMAO

Your mean the 2016 video? I thought that was a Model S.

 

[diplomat33]

Please “Elon” push it to my car please!! MS AP1 MCU1 it’s terrible with software 2020.36.11 ccacdb181f16 .........

my mcu is crashing after I visit the new adres and when I’m stepping in my car and select the new navigation location it’s
**** crashing. (E mobile connection in the EU)

The FSD beta is only for AP3 with FSD. It is not eligible on your AP1 car.

 

[powertoold]

What Elon said about local maximums is intriguing. So the 2016 demo with the X and 2019 demo with the 3 can be assumed as local maximums. The rewrite will look totally different. Exciting.

 

[boonedocks]

Your mean the 2016 video? I thought that was a Model S.

Definitely a model X.

Tesla Self-Driving Demonstration

 

[diplomat33]

Definitely a model X.

Tesla Self-Driving Demonstration

Thanks. I stand corrected.

 

[diplomat33]

Just for fun.

I predict the FSD beta next week will do turns at intersections, will do a full route on NOA, will have new visualizations like what we saw on Autonomy Day, and will be more reliable than our current AP but still require active driver supervision.

 

[boonedocks]

Just for fun I predict that NOA on turning at intersections while trying to keep the proper "weight" on the steering wheel to hold the nag at bay will "look" white awkward.

 

[diplomat33]

Just for fun I predict that NOA on turning at intersections while trying to keep the proper "weight" on the steering wheel to hold the nag at bay will "look" white awkward.

I still wonder if Tesla will do a nag right before the turn to confirm driver attention but not have a nag during the turn itself so as to avoid this issue. Similar to how we get a nag before an auto lane change on NOA but not during the lane change, or how we get a nag or stalk confirmation before going through a green light but not during. Could also explain why Tesla wants expert and careful drivers because they will need to be trusted to pay attention during the turn when there is no nag.

 

[RTPEV]

I still wonder if Tesla will do a nag right before the turn to confirm driver attention but not have a nag during the turn itself so as to avoid this issue.

Exactly! I'm not sure where the idea came from that you will need to put a precise amount of torque on the wheel during the turn itself (as @boonedocks predicts). I don't wonder at all. I think that's exactly how it will happen.

I guess it's possible they could be using the internal camera as an attentiveness check, but I doubt it. I do suspect that FSD users will have to enable the internal camera, even if it isn't actively being used for attentiveness checking, rather for training purposes, and then eventually for attentiveness.

Segueing back to the liability question: until the laws and regulations catch up with autonomous driving, even a fully autonomous privately owned vehicle is still going to be the responsibility of the vehicle owner, regardless of who is insuring it. This will require some kind of statement/signoff that the user of the vehicle is paying attention and enforcing it (through active monitoring of sign kind) in a way that will satisfy regulators. Maybe it's camera based, maybe it's steering wheel based, but there will certainly be some kind of monitoring.

We will not see an end to that until the day that the state the vehicle is being driven in enacts legislation that specifically regulates autonomous vehicles and defines exactly where the liability lies when the vehicle is being operated in autonomous mode--and I believe that will be transferred to the provider of the autonomous system, although yes, with exceptions for mechanical faults and acts of God (tire blowouts was the example given). But to be clear, this is just speculation on my part. Nobody knows at this point exactly how it will play out.

I also think it will be many many years before it does play out, regardless of how complete this FSD rewrite is. So I would not be holding my breath on this one.

 

[boonedocks]

Exactly! I'm not sure where the idea came from that you will need to put a precise amount of torque on the wheel during the turn itself (as @boonedocks predicts). I don't wonder at all. I think that's exactly how it will happen.

I guess it's possible they could be using the internal camera as an attentiveness check, but I doubt it. I do suspect that FSD users will have to enable the internal camera, even if it isn't actively being used for attentiveness checking, rather for training purposes, and then eventually for attentiveness.

Segueing back to the liability question: until the laws and regulations catch up with autonomous driving, even a fully autonomous privately owned vehicle is still going to be the responsibility of the vehicle owner, regardless of who is insuring it. This will require some kind of statement/signoff that the user of the vehicle is paying attention and enforcing it (through active monitoring of sign kind) in a way that will satisfy regulators. Maybe it's camera based, maybe it's steering wheel based, but there will certainly be some kind of monitoring.

We will not see an end to that until the day that the state the vehicle is being driven in enacts legislation that specifically regulates autonomous vehicles and defines exactly where the liability lies when the vehicle is being operated in autonomous mode--and I believe that will be transferred to the provider of the autonomous system, although yes, with exceptions for mechanical faults and acts of God (tire blowouts was the example given). But to be clear, this is just speculation on my part. Nobody knows at this point exactly how it will play out.

I also think it will be many many years before it does play out, regardless of how complete this FSD rewrite is. So I would not be holding my breath on this one.

So all of us Model S & X owners are screwed?

 

[RTPEV]

So all of us Model S & X owners are screwed?

Good question! Clearly Tesla is planning on doing something with the internal camera beyond the original stated purpose of "passenger monitoring". An alternate attentiveness method could ultimately be used for Model S/X I suppose.

 

[Mardak]

I want to believe the hype, but now I think I need to lower my expectations.

If you weren't around when the original hardware launched with 8 cameras capable of supporting full-self driving in October 2016, here's the initial software release in January 2017:

Tesla rolling out Autopilot to cars built since October, will limit Autosteer to 45 mph

Autopilot/Autosteer was limited to 45 mph, and for about 4 months before this release owners with HW2 had no Autopilot functionality. And even then, there were calibration issues with resulting in wobbly lines and steering. I would think the rewrite targeting HW3 is on an even greater scale than Tesla's initial Autopilot software release targeting their own HW2, but back then it was a brand new codebase vs this case Tesla is able to leverage the existing code to collect data and tests for the new code.

 

[Mardak]

Tesla is the only company that can actually do a rewrite, deploy it to their fleet, and then regather all the necessary real world data / miles within a reasonable time frame.

It's probably more of other companies don't have customers that would notice or even care about a rewrite that should add new functionality to their existing vehicles. (To be fair, many of these Tesla customers already paid for these features that they haven't gotten in years.) Google Self-Driving Car Project started long ago early 2009 over a decade ago when there wasn't as much deep learning -- in fact ImageNet wasn't even published until several months later in June 2009.

Tesla has an interesting challenge and opportunity in that they need to maintain and improve functionality for existing customers while getting the next generation capabilities ready. If one thinks of the current Autopilot purely as a bootstrapping mechanism for getting to FSD, it probably was one of the best ways Tesla could gather data needed to train FSD neural networks to find all the complex situations that could only be addressed with a rewrite.

 

[Dutchie]

Definitely has NOT fixed phantom braking. I had 3 phantom braking events this am drive on my daily commute.

Huh?! You are part of the super super secret tester who now already has the rewrite? I thought the first batch of the rewrite FSD would go out next week.