FSD rewrite will go out on Oct 20 to limited beta

[Thp3]

Thanks @mspisars and @diplomat33 , revisions... yes.

I’m still expecting it to be a couple more(4-6), just historical behavior, but like the stock broker said, past performance is not a guarantee of future behavior or something to that effect as I hung up.

But it is hard being patient after seeing so much improvement over existing autopilot on the beta videos.

 

[diplomat33]

Elon now says two or three rewrites before large scale FSD release. He mostly underestimates the time requirements, so maybe 4 or 5 rewrites. At a rewrite/update every 5-10 days then it’s 25 days to 50 days that we likely will have to wait.

Elon said revisions, not rewrites. They are different. We should be accurate with our words. Having said that, Elon is too optimistic in his timelines. Software development, especially FSD, can have unexpected setbacks or issue that take longer to address than expected. We saw that with Smart Summon where Elon was convinced several times that Smart Summon would be released wide and they missed the deadline. So I do agree that wide release of FSD Beta may take longer than Elon thinks.

 

[mikes_fsd]

I tried tapping my gas but my 3 still braked. How much gas do you have to pass to accomplish this?

Never know but I doubt much work is being done on the current AP since it is legacy. Probably "all hands on deck" for the engineers working on FSD 4D code now.

Maybe we could get a "watered down" version of FSD 4D for city driving that would go through Green Lights and maybe some right turns for now.

The confirmation can be done with the gear selector...
The indicator that Tesla has registered your confirmation to go on green light is when the stop line rendered on the screen changes from red to green.

Note: if you did not notice this before, the rendered stop line is red on a green light when you do not have a lead car.

 

[JulienW]

The confirmation can be done with the gear selector....

Guess you missed the GAS part.

 

[mikes_fsd]

Guess you missed the GAS part.

Sure did !

 

[Mr. Blooregard]

We can play Coconut Sounds out of the Boom Box through intersections

I personally like pretending I'm driving an ice cream truck

 

[run-the-joules]

Elon now says two or three revisions before large scale FSD release. He mostly underestimates the time requirements, so maybe 4 or 5 revisions. At a revision/update every 5-10 days then it’s 25 days to 50 days that we likely will have to wait.

You know, we might get be able to get vaccinations for Covid before we get FSD...

You're actually being more optimistic than you should be. Elon's reply was regarding when it will be released to the Early Access Program, which is still a small group of people (let's set aside for the moment that they straight-up lied about inviting all early FSD buyers), and Smart Summon was in early access for quite a few months before it was released to those of us in the unwashed peasant masses, and it was still garbage when they released it but it was low-risk garbage.

It wouldn't be unreasonable to think it'll be 2-5 months before it goes to Early Access, and another 4-8 months of them using it before we see it.

I personally have my doubts we'll see it released to the public before Q3, and I'm not even particularly confident it'll happen in 2021.

 

[banned-66611]

Revisions are not rewrites.

We have had 8 FSD revisions released so far. His latest tweet says "A few more revisions needed. Probably Beta 10 or 11", each revision has come about 2 weeks apart (earlier ones were one week apart)...

If you are referring to his tweet: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1342909163903455233

Oh, in that case it's a straight up lie. Can't even call it optimistic, that's just bonkers.

The moment they release FSD someone will try to summon coast to coast like they said you could, and film it. So they know it had better live up to the hype.

Maybe he means they will let more people beta test it and it will stay in beta forever.

 

[banned-66611]

It wouldn't be unreasonable to think it'll be 2-5 months before it goes to Early Access, and another 4-8 months of them using it before we see it.

I personally have my doubts we'll see it released to the public before Q3, and I'm not even particularly confident it'll happen in 2021.

2021 is extremely optimistic. Maybe 2025. I'm talking about what they were selling back in 2016, level 5, not some new definition that isn't FSD.

The problem with Early Access is that all you needed to do to get it was to have paid them money. No qualifications at all. They should be using trained test drivers for safety.

 

[Battpower]

It wouldn't be unreasonable to think it'll be 2-5 months before it goes to Early Access, and another 4-8 months of them using it before we see it.

That's a bit depressing on the back of a somewhat lacklustre Holiday update (so far) but has the feel of being quite realistic..... and even then, based on not running into any major difficulties.

And for Europe (and UK) not likely to get wide release until regulatory hurdles have been overcome.

But should be able to release visualisations (as an option? Might encourage subsequent FSD sales / subscriptions if it's any good)

 

[FloridaJohn]

Also, Elon's tweet is answering the question, "When will you expand the FSD beta to the rest of early access program?"

So after a couple more revisions, the code goes to the Early Access Program next, not general release. How long after that before general release is anyone's guess.

Edit: Beaten by run-the-joules!

 

[banned-66611]

And for Europe (and UK) not likely to get wide release until regulatory hurdles have been overcome.

We won't get it until it's level 5 proven, they won't allow this kind of risk in the EU... Well, the UK might do it, in its desperation post-brexit.

 

[Mardak]

Elon's reply was regarding when it will be released to the Early Access Program, which is still a small group of people (let's set aside for the moment that they straight-up lied about inviting all early FSD buyers)

I guess this will be the moment of truth in January assuming FSD beta 10/11 goes to "early access." If early FSD buyers get the update, then Elon can cross off this long overdue promise even if it then goes to general release say a week later. If not, I guess it'll just fall into the bucket of other unfulfilled promises / predictions.

 

[run-the-joules]

I guess this will be the moment of truth in January assuming FSD beta 10/11 goes to "early access." If early FSD buyers get the update, then Elon can cross off this long overdue promise even if it then goes to general release say a week later. If not, I guess it'll just fall into the bucket of other unfulfilled promises / predictions.

This might be considered splitting hairs but honestly I wanted to be in the proper early access group because of my professional background and wanting to be able to give clear, actionable feedback in a test scenario with a product I care about… without having to do it for my actual job since I'm done with that.

Well, that, and to get what I paid for ASAP.

 

[Lindamon]

Very small % of people read manuals / go through any kind of training. If you make online training mandatory, they will just let the training run and not pay attention. Thats is why the industry focuses on making the software "intuitive".

Companies I've worked in have mandatory internal training (mainly for legal purposes) - with questions to be answered at the end of each topic - and yet most people just don't read / don't pay attention to the video and just "guess" (or seach for answers) and answer the questions.

I never said make it mandatory. But I think they should offer it. I have absolutely no idea how many people decline to read manuals or training, because my experience on that is very different than yours, at least in my profession. Just because you believe most people ignore training is not a good reason to not offer it.

 

[banned-66611]

I never said make it mandatory. But I think they should offer it. I have absolutely no idea how many people decline to read manuals or training, because my experience on that is very different than yours, at least in my profession. Just because you believe most people ignore training is not a good reason to not offer it.

It should be mandatory until they get to level 5. Until then the driver must monitor the system and its different from normal driving.

 

[EVNow]

I never said make it mandatory. But I think they should offer it. I have absolutely no idea how many people decline to read manuals or training, because my experience on that is very different than yours, at least in my profession. Just because you believe most people ignore training is not a good reason to not offer it.

Oh yes - they should offer training / extensive documentation - esp. known issues.

But I think - the latter part they won't do because of the negative publicity that can generate.

 

[turnem]

Elon said revisions, not rewrites. They are different. We should be accurate with our words. Having said that, Elon is too optimistic in his timelines. Software development, especially FSD, can have unexpected setbacks or issue that take longer to address than expected. We saw that with Smart Summon where Elon was convinced several times that Smart Summon would be released wide and they missed the deadline. So I do agree that wide release of FSD Beta may take longer than Elon thinks.

While I do agree with what you are saying I think it's also fair to state that even though the FSD Beta is far from complete it appears to be much further along that anyone expected right out of the gate. So in my mind at least, this is the one time that Elon has actually surprised me with such early progress.

I think we will get a broader FSD rollout before the end of March.

 

[banned-66611]

While I do agree with what you are saying I think it's also fair to state that even though the FSD Beta is far from complete it appears to be much further along that anyone expected right out of the gate.

Really though? It was supposed to be ready by 2017 and currently looks years away from being a viable level 5 system, which is after all what they have been selling.

If anything the current beta shows just how much more work they have to do before they can even launch the robotaxi service, let alone fulfil the FSD orders people placed all those years ago.

 

[mikes_fsd]

We have had 8 FSD revisions released so far. His latest tweet says "A few more revisions needed. Probably Beta 10 or 11", each revision has come about 2 weeks apart (earlier ones were one week apart)...

If you are referring to his tweet: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1342909163903455233

Looks like we are up to Revision 9 of FSD Beta.
I really do hope I get a chance to play with the beta soon!