General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[wnorris]

ValueAnalyst on Twitter

$TSLA If GA3 "alone can reach a production rate of 5,000 Model 3s per week soon," GA4 is already at 1,000 per week, and the goal is to get Model 3 to 6,000 per week by late August, then for what will @Tesla use GA2?

Please vote and retweet for larger sample size.

Ship GA4 to GF3 in China.

 

[mongo]

The large reported gap between production and deliveries seems to me to indicate that they did hold back deliveries in the US to come in under the tax break limit. Sure, part of it is explained by smoothing out export flow too.

Agree!

11,166 Model 3 vehicles and 3,892 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of Q2, and will be delivered in early Q3.

Just over 15k in transit.

Ship GA4 to GF4 GF3 in China.

Where is GF3? (are you including Fremont?)

Edit: the post I quoted was updated to GF3 (was GF4), thus the question regarding the missing GF3 in the sequence.

 

[mikevbf]

For me just as big news from press release is:

"We also reaffirm our guidance for positive GAAP net income and cash flow in Q3 and Q4, despite negative pressures from a weaker USD and likely higher tariffs for vehicles imported into China as well as components procured from China."

It's amazing to pull off 5k production rate, but just as impressive to do so at sustained good enough margins to stay cash flow positive and not need to do capitol raise despite china headwinds.

 

[wnorris]

Where is GF3? (are you including Fremont?)

Shanghai, China. No, just using the standard GF nomenclature. I cannot see Tesla keeping three Model 3 GA lines at Fremont as they establish new GA lines at future GFs.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

This is key: "We expect that GA3 alone can reach a production rate of 5,000 Model 3s per week soon"

This is beyond any expectations, and bodes well for how much Tesla will need to spend to ramp to 10,000 and beyond in 2019.

Tesla may be able to apply GA3 tech to GA2 and GA4, if not already done, to reach 14,000+ with minimal incremental CapEx for general assembly.

 

[Paracelsus]

As I read it, the 730 MWh PG&E battery announced late Friday night looks more certain than the 350MWhr UK battery also announced during the same weekend, because anti-environment "environmentalists" are fighting the UK one (thanks to Communism, which wants the issue of the environment, not any solutions, and definitely never anything that improves their target country). Also, the PG&E battery could grow to 1.1GWh. Neither news has hit the US stockmarket yet, that I know of (besides very low volume extended hours foreign trading in Germany which even there already popped almost +7%). That's multiple levels of pathetic. I bet it rolls in corners. That makes me sad and disgusted at the same time.

This post from @Ulmo might be very insightful...........and there is the potential for California solar to become a similar target from this environmental perspective too. To that point, the USGS recently solicited bids for a study that is looking in-part at the link between bird fatalities with California solar fields. TSLA is going to have a tremendous day/week/month and today is the first day out of the gate on a string of good news. But this topic should be revisited since it has potential to effect Tesla Energy and Solar growth in the US. This was taken from the recent USGS solicitation:

USGS OAG SACRAMENTO ACQUISITION BR.

Bird impact study The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting market research to determine the availability of qualified small businesses capable of providing assessment of the impacts to birds of industrial-scale solar energy in southern California by documenting birds¿ use of these areas and any associated mortality as described in the attached Statement of Work......................

Statement of Work Background: Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center are leading a large multi-collaborator research project examining the impacts of industrial-scale photovoltaic (PV) solar energy in southern California on flying animals. Existing bird fatality data from utility-scale PV solar energy facilities suggests birds are attracted at above-background rates to these facilities. How and why solar facilities attract birds and potentially incur mortality is largely unknown. To address this, the project is divided into three tasks: 1) measure the light polarization and irradiance properties of PV surfaces under varying conditions and test how these characteristics may attract birds to solar facilities, 2) establish whether birds in-flight respond behaviorally to solar facilities, and if so, how that response varies with altitude and distance from the facility, and 3) determine what characteristics of solar facilities and individual bird species together explain variation in mortality and behavior exhibited across sites..................

 

[GreyHair]

This post from @Ulmo might be very insightful...........and there is the potential for California solar to become a similar target from this environmental perspective too. To that point, the USGS recently solicited bids for a study that is looking in-part at the link between bird fatalities with California solar fields. TSLA is going to have a tremendous day/week/month and today is the first day out of the gate on a string of good news. But this topic should be revisited since it has potential to effect Tesla Energy and Solar growth in the US. This was taken from the recent USGS solicitation:

USGS OAG SACRAMENTO ACQUISITION BR.

Bird impact study The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting market research to determine the availability of qualified small businesses capable of providing assessment of the impacts to birds of industrial-scale solar energy in southern California by documenting birds¿ use of these areas and any associated mortality as described in the attached Statement of Work......................

Statement of Work Background: Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center are leading a large multi-collaborator research project examining the impacts of industrial-scale photovoltaic (PV) solar energy in southern California on flying animals. Existing bird fatality data from utility-scale PV solar energy facilities suggests birds are attracted at above-background rates to these facilities. How and why solar facilities attract birds and potentially incur mortality is largely unknown. To address this, the project is divided into three tasks: 1) measure the light polarization and irradiance properties of PV surfaces under varying conditions and test how these characteristics may attract birds to solar facilities, 2) establish whether birds in-flight respond behaviorally to solar facilities, and if so, how that response varies with altitude and distance from the facility, and 3) determine what characteristics of solar facilities and individual bird species together explain variation in mortality and behavior exhibited across sites..................

When the USGS compares this study to the number of birds dying annually in oil field settling ponds I will be worried.

 

[RubberToe]

This post from @Ulmo might be very insightful...........and there is the potential for California solar to become a similar target from this environmental perspective too. To that point, the USGS recently solicited bids for a study that is looking in-part at the link between bird fatalities with California solar fields. TSLA is going to have a tremendous day/week/month and today is the first day out of the gate on a string of good news. But this topic should be revisited since it has potential to effect Tesla Energy and Solar growth in the US. This was taken from the recent USGS solicitation:

USGS OAG SACRAMENTO ACQUISITION BR.

Bird impact study The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting market research to determine the availability of qualified small businesses capable of providing assessment of the impacts to birds of industrial-scale solar energy in southern California by documenting birds¿ use of these areas and any associated mortality as described in the attached Statement of Work......................

Statement of Work Background: Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center are leading a large multi-collaborator research project examining the impacts of industrial-scale photovoltaic (PV) solar energy in southern California on flying animals. Existing bird fatality data from utility-scale PV solar energy facilities suggests birds are attracted at above-background rates to these facilities. How and why solar facilities attract birds and potentially incur mortality is largely unknown. To address this, the project is divided into three tasks: 1) measure the light polarization and irradiance properties of PV surfaces under varying conditions and test how these characteristics may attract birds to solar facilities, 2) establish whether birds in-flight respond behaviorally to solar facilities, and if so, how that response varies with altitude and distance from the facility, and 3) determine what characteristics of solar facilities and individual bird species together explain variation in mortality and behavior exhibited across sites..................

Curtailing PV deployment because of slightly higher bird mortality would be like abandoning indoor plumbing and the entire sewage treatment infrastructure because a maintenance worker lost a thumb when a manhole cover slipped while being repositioned.

Problem solved!

RT

 

[JoaoD]

Tesla didn't hit 5k/week, sounds but the upper 4,000's. Only apology needed is you forum members accusing me of spreading FUD to me.
I'm already expecting the "oh come on! 5k in 7 days and 5 hours is the same thing as 7 days blah blah blah" excuses. Fact is simple: despite pulling all the stops (temp production tent, 7 days/week 24/7 production, 300 fewer welds per car),
Tesla was still not able to achieve 5k/week.

"PALO ALTO, Calif., July 02, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — In the last seven days of Q2, Tesla produced 5,031 Model 3 and 1,913 Model S and X vehicles."
Your facts are wrong so you are spreading FUD. Tesla did not only achieve 5000 Model 3 in one week they even surpassed it by 31.
The sources you used are just FUD, they said one week ago that Tesla was below 4000 a week, and now saying Tesla did take more than one week to get to 5000.

 

[mrdoubleb]

"PALO ALTO, Calif., July 02, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — In the last seven days of Q2, Tesla produced 5,031 Model 3 and 1,913 Model S and X vehicles."
Your facts are wrong so you are spreading FUD. Tesla did not only achieve 5000 Model 3 in one week they even surpassed it by 31.
The sources you used are just FUD, they said one week ago that Tesla was below 4000 a week, and now saying Tesla did take more than one week to get to 5000.

But, but, Elon lied, they only made 6,944 cars not 7,000!

 

[mrdoubleb]

Also from the release... is this the first time Model X deliveries beat Model S? I think it is.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

But, but, Elon lied, they only made 6,944 cars not 7,000!

You forgot to count these. LOL!

Dan

 

[Dwdnjck]

The last time Ford had large numbers of people waiting for one of their cars was 1964 and 1/2.

 

[ZsoZso]

EDIT Q2 number report is out today!
Tesla Q2 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries | Tesla, Inc.

For me the most important message in numbers is the total Model 3 production (28,578) in 11 weeks (they had scheduled shutdown for 2 weeks in the quarter for tuning up the production for higher rates). It is important to compare that to the exit rate of Q1, which slightly missed the target of 2.5k/week with something around 2400 IIRC. The bears were shouting then too, that it is a miss (like now about the 5am completion of 5031) and also not sustainable just a burst. Now, if you divide 28,578 / 11 = 2598. So the Q2 average production speed exceeded the Q1 exit rate. If they continue this pattern for Q3, that means over 55k Model 3 production in Q3 ! Famous bears and their paid shills at the media will have some sore muscles from all the goal post moving they will need to do to keep framing that as a negative...

 

[Unpilot]

Man watching those talking heads on Yahoo as I watch the SP is funny. They both have this tone of "big deal they made 5k M3"s"
It is like watching a movie about a runaway train (Tesla) and some folks on the tracks saying big deal it's just a little light coming our way.

 

[MartinAustin]

I can't wait to see what Bob Lutz has to say.

I can't wait to see what Jim Chanos has to say.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

For me the most important message in numbers is the total Model 3 production (28,578) in 11 weeks (they had scheduled shutdown for 2 weeks in the quarter for tuning up the production for higher rates). It is important to compare that to the exit rate of Q1, which slightly missed the target of 2.5k/week with something around 2400 IIRC.

It’s actually better than that. The Q1 exit rate was 2020.

If Tesla can get 12 weeks of production in Q3, that should be over 60k Model 3s.

 

[electracity]

Tesla didn't hit 5k/week, sounds but the upper 4,000's. Only apology needed is you forum members accusing me of spreading FUD to me.
I'm already expecting the "oh come on! 5k in 7 days and 5 hours is the same thing as 7 days blah blah blah" excuses. Fact is simple: despite pulling all the stops (temp production tent, 7 days/week 24/7 production, 300 fewer welds per car),
Tesla was still not able to achieve 5k/week.
Tesla reportedly hits Model 3 manufacturing goal hours after its deadline

Small production number differences is trivial. A better criticism is that Musk clearly forecast a sustained rate. They did not meet that goal. From this point forward monthly rates are what matter. If Tesla can produce 20K Model 3 in September they are doing well.
A factory runs a marathon, not a sprint. Lat week was a sprint.

 

[Lhan]

Ship GA4 to GF3 in China.

GA4 makes up for the down time to update GA2 & GA3.

 

[Boomer19]

I can't wait to see what Bob Lutz has to say.

I can't wait to see what Jim Chanos has to say.

gordon johnson just said it for them on bloomberg terminal news - haven’t found it on website yet

he’s a bonafide tool