General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Dan Detweiler]

You guys need to stop

Here ya go:

Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk has ‘zero doubt’ about 10,000 units per week in 2018, corrects reservation tally



Stop being blind to the timelines everyone. Just don't be a fanboy over it. I'm a super long, but come on.....

2018 ain't over yet but, fair enough. I wasn't aware of that quote. Point taken...however.

First and foremost, I absolutely detest the term "fanboy". It's insulting, degrading and implies an intellect incapable of seeing past their own emotions. Let's try to remember that we are trying to have civil discussions with people that may or may not share your particular views.

Secondly, while I admit that Elon has stated his opinion regarding production goals that have not been met, I see this as a motivation...not manipulation. By this point we all are aware of how his mind works and how he motivates his companies to produce phenomenal results. While some see these "missed" targets as a negative, I see them as a tremendous positive. I see it as a positive because what DID they achieve while striving for that goal that they probably never would have if that goal hadn't been so challenging? Taken from a motivational standpoint, this strategy is very positive. Taken from an outsider looking in point of view it is frustrating for sure. Perhaps it is a change of perspective to long term corporate achievement and people will begin to see the genius of the strategy.

Plus...that's who the guys is. You know it, I know it, the press knows it, everybody knows it. Some are going to be inspired by it while others are going to use it as fodder for spouting his demise. Why continue beating yourself up over this reality? Yeah, it comes with negative side effects, but that character trait is what has seen the company to this point. I, for one, am willing to see it through.

Not a "fanboy", just somebody with a different perspective.

Dan

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

FYI. CNBC has Linette on. Go to twitter to see and reply. They had no equal time or alternative view.

CNBC on Twitter

I hate slimeball reporting like that. They word all their statements as being neutral, but never gave the opposing views to ANY of the fallacies that Linette aired. Whoever thought that CNBC would offer a fair platform to "debate" the issues were correct in being cynical. That would be like voluntarily walking into a den of wolves.

 

[dc_h]

FYI. CNBC has Linette on. Go to twitter to see and reply. They had no equal time or alternative view.

CNBC on Twitter

Linette got buried with more teslove today. She’s marketing gold. Mostly just refuting bs and showing cars and reviews.
A couple of harsh remarks that don’t help any cause, but mostly just fun intelligent and humorous response to negative bs.

 

[bdy0627]

Wow. She doesn't even make sense. What does that mean production lines are straight instead of rectangular? Journalist Elon Musk questioned over Tesla reporting speaks

Wow. As nauseating as it was to sit through that interview, I think everyone should view it because of its potential influence on the market. That is some scathing criticism of Elon from a couple of interviewees besides Lopez. It wasn't just Lopez, but the respected author Bethany McLean of the Enron book as well as Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, the associate Dean of the Yale School of Management. Enron and Theranos were brought up in the discussion, as analogs to what is going on with Elon and Tesla. They brought up the comparison with John Carreyrou, the author of Bad Blood, the book about the journey of exposing Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos of fraud. He was ruthlessly attacked by Holmes while investigating Theranos. Bethany directly compared Elon to the angry belligerent behavior of the Enron crooks when they were being investigated. Sonnenfeld agreed with their characterization of Elon. He cites examples of CEOs under attack who came out and just corrected the facts without personally attacking others. He was extremely critical of Elon while being very supportive of Lopez.

They characterize Lopez as a reporter under attack for just trying to get the facts out, which obviously seems to ignore the tone of her articles. Many watching the interview wouldn't know what the tone of her articles is like though. Bethany says Elon's behavior is indication that Lopez is right and that she is on the right track. She commends Lopez for her courage.

Sonnenfeld then talks about "poor Jim Chanos" bering in the middle of Enron and now Tesla. He says it's unfortunate that Elon so fundamentally misunderstands Jim Chanos, who is "a very honest smart guy." "For Musk to somehow say there is some trading taking place from Chanos on this information is ludicrious." (love that choice of word!) They all then agreed with how honest and open Jim Chanos is, and that he speaks openly with all of them frequently. Sonnenfeld indicates that he agrees with Lopez that investors should be worried, and that Elon is holding Tesla's board of directors hostage, while making $2.5 billion this year. Sonnenfeld referred to Lopez as a "brilliant" reporter.

I have to say, if you don't know a lot about Tesla and Elon, this kind of stuff could easily create a lot of concern for investors. This SEC whistleblower situation is making me a little concerned about the shorter term. I sure hope that Elon is squeaky clean and hasn't knowingly exaggerated some things that could be interpreted as an intent to influence investors. I imagine that wouldn't go over well. It's one thing to be eternally optimistic about ramps and future timelines, but it's another thing to knowingly indicate something different than what is occurring in an effort to bring an embattled company through a really tough stretch. I wish I could say that I am 100% confident he has not exaggerated some numbers over this tough model 3 ramp.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Well, regarding 10k M3 per week, this was worse ;-)
Elon Musk on Twitter

I'm actually very ok with Musk missing impossible deadlines by 6 months, I'm less ok with his use of Twitter,
and giving such confident statements to his 22M followers.
The press feasts in things like this, especially if he misses. The press actually feasts on anything Elon Musk says or writes: I have at least 3 friends write to me asking about Musk and the Thai boys, the media coverage, etc.

I guess you can't have both amazing Elon Musk the visionary engineer, and also Elon Musk the moderate twitter user...

 

[MP3Mike]

Well, regarding 10k M3 per week, this was worse ;-)
Elon Musk on Twitter

Yeah, he missed that by ~6 months. (Assuming that they can keep up the 5k/week pace.)

 

[aubreymcfato]

Yeah, he missed that by ~6 months. (Assuming that they can keep up the 5k/week pace.)

Uh, I must say that I read 20k *per week*! So it's really only 6 months. Sorry (actually 6 months is kinda short as a delay in Elon-time...)

 

[Curt Renz]

FYI. CNBC has Linette on. Go to twitter to see and reply. They had no equal time or alternative view.

CNBC on Twitter

I hate slimeball reporting like that. They word all their statements as being neutral, but never gave the opposing views to ANY of the fallacies that Linette aired. Whoever thought that CNBC would offer a fair platform to "debate" the issues were correct in being cynical. That would be like voluntarily walking into a den of wolves.

They chose to air it while Elon was in Beijing at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse where it was after midnight, before he discusses more serious matters with Chinese government officials on Thursday.

 

[Duffer]

They chose to air it while Elon was in Beijing at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse where it was after midnight, before he discusses more serious matters with Chinese government officials on Thursday.

Trying to influence the discussions? Tell me it isn't so.

It would have been much better if the "unnamed source" hadn't alerted the media that Elon was going to Bejing following the Chinese factory deal. The FUD will be layered on very thick for awhile in a, hopefully, failed attempt to either derail the Chinese agreement and/or drastically change the terms against Tesla.

 

[Boomer19]

don’t take lightly - game is on

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

 

[scaesare]

Here ya go:

Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk has ‘zero doubt’ about 10,000 units per week in 2018, corrects reservation tally

"Aug. 3rd 2017 7:46 am ET"

I'm still waiting for the reference to tell me that the accelerated production ramp is a "3-4 year old outdated timeline"... you know, before , orders were actually taken in early 2016...

 

[Reciprocity]

No kidding.

That major brain trust they've got and instead of ramping up to full 500K/yr production an aggressive two years ahead of schedule, it's going to be a measly 18 months.

Lame.

Actually at 7500/w 3s and 2500/w S/X they would be at 500k rate entering 2019. Expect a big push for end of year due to the credits.

 

[generalenthu]

Actually at 7500/w 3s and 2500/w S/X they would be at 500k rate entering 2019. Expect a big push for end of year due to the credits.

No Christmas until January at Tesla.

 

[skitown]

Of course your Tesla is depreciating at about $1/mile so your fuel cost is almost ignorable compared to that. $250/trip. Seems like overspending for "borderline unnecessary".

Given that I have no commute, nor does my wife, it’s highly arguable that owning a Tesla, let alone two is “borderline unnecessary.” Definitely overspending. But I don’t care.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Looks like there was a meeting with big investors at the Fremont factory yesterday,
writeup via reddit here. Main takeaways:

• running at 5000 week
• Q3 5000, Q4 7000, mid 2019 10,000/week
• Nothing new on FSD
• China GF funded like other projects before
  (thus ruling out something like a surprise investment like from Tencent IMHO)
  
• Re-confirmed no equity or debt raise this year

Solid but would have hoped for some positive news on FSD and China GF funding.

(Sorry if posted before, didn´t have the time to catch up)

Actually at 7500/w 3s and 2500/w S/X they would be at 500k rate entering 2019. Expect a big push for end of year due to the credits.

This is encouraging.

5,000 Model 3/week is about 60k units/quarter. @ ASP of 58k, yields 3.48 Billion in revenue.
2,000 Model S&X/week @ASP of 100k, yields 2 Billion in revenue.

5.5 Billion in quarterly automotive revenue is roughly double Q1 '18 (which was 2.735 Billion).

7,000 Model 3 and 2,000 Model S&X by Q4 is 9,000 units/week, or about 450,000 cars/year run rate. I recall that the Paint Shop has a theoretical max of about 500k (please correct me if I'm incorrect about that), so Tesla may need further upgrades there to get Model 3 to 10k/week.

It's going to be a long next few months, but I do see steak rather than sizzle being delivered by the end of the year.

 

[Curt Renz]

Trying to influence the discussions? Tell me it isn't so.

It would have been much better if the "unnamed source" hadn't alerted the media that Elon was going to Bejing following the Chinese factory deal. The FUD will be layered on very thick for awhile in a, hopefully, failed attempt to either derail the Chinese agreement and/or drastically change the terms against Tesla.

Interesting possibility, although it was not my point. It was just that Elon is in China for several days of truly important discussions, and none of his associates is likely to bother him to ask how to respond to any request from CNBC regarding the situation with the Business Insider reporter.

 

[SteveG3]

Wow. As nauseating as it was to sit through that interview, I think everyone should view it because of its potential influence on the market. That is some scathing criticism of Elon from a couple of interviewees besides Lopez. It wasn't just Lopez, but the respected author Bethany McLean of the Enron book as well as Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, the associate Dean of the Yale School of Management. Enron and Theranos were brought up in the discussion, as analogs to what is going on with Elon and Tesla. They brought up the comparison with John Carreyrou, the author of Bad Blood, the book about the journey of exposing Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos of fraud. He was ruthlessly attacked by Holmes while investigating Theranos. Bethany directly compared Elon to the angry belligerent behavior of the Enron crooks when they were being investigated. Sonnenfeld agreed with their characterization of Elon. He cites examples of CEOs under attack who came out and just corrected the facts without personally attacking others. He was extremely critical of Elon while being very supportive of Lopez.

They characterize Lopez as a reporter under attack for just trying to get the facts out, which obviously seems to ignore the tone of her articles. Many watching the interview wouldn't know what the tone of her articles is like though. Bethany says Elon's behavior is indication that Lopez is right and that she is on the right track. She commends Lopez for her courage.

Sonnenfeld then talks about "poor Jim Chanos" bering in the middle of Enron and now Tesla. He says it's unfortunate that Elon so fundamentally misunderstands Jim Chanos, who is "a very honest smart guy." "For Musk to somehow say there is some trading taking place from Chanos on this information is ludicrious." (love that choice of word!) They all then agreed with how honest and open Jim Chanos is, and that he speaks openly with all of them frequently. Sonnenfeld indicates that he agrees with Lopez that investors should be worried, and that Elon is holding Tesla's board of directors hostage, while making $2.5 billion this year. Sonnenfeld referred to Lopez as a "brilliant" reporter.

I have to say, if you don't know a lot about Tesla and Elon, this kind of stuff could easily create a lot of concern for investors. This SEC whistleblower situation is making me a little concerned about the shorter term. I sure hope that Elon is squeaky clean and hasn't knowingly exaggerated some things that could be interpreted as an intent to influence investors. I imagine that wouldn't go over well. It's one thing to be eternally optimistic about ramps and future timelines, but it's another thing to knowingly indicate something different than what is occurring in an effort to bring an embattled company through a really tough stretch. I wish I could say that I am 100% confident he has not exaggerated some numbers over this tough model 3 ramp.

Chanos and Sonnenfeld (the Yale Prof) both teach at Yale School of Management. Chanos has been a speaker at Sonnenfeld’s annual conference multiple times. Sonnenfeld repeatedly dragged in all kinds of off-topic Tesla FUD like he lived the stuff daily.

I saw in another post that Bethany McClain and Chanos involved each other in their Enron investigations.

Guest number 3, Linette.

This would be a good segment for HyperChange, TalkTesla, etc to unpack, raise awareness about conflicts of interest.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Given that I have no commute, nor does my wife, it’s highly arguable that owning a Tesla, let alone two is “borderline unnecessary.” Definitely overspending. But I don’t care.

Same here. Retired. My Model S and Model 3 are definitely indulgences. But I never would have bought them if I hadn't paid for them out of TSLA investing profits. And I don't have any delusions about the cost of operating them: depreciation is by far the biggest expense.

 

[dc_h]

Wow. She doesn't even make sense. What does that mean production lines are straight instead of rectangular? Journalist Elon Musk questioned over Tesla reporting speaks

Maybe one of her sources is JB sending funny ship. Him and Elon giggling over the dumbest leaks.

 

[Boomer19]

Given that I have no commute, nor does my wife, it’s highly arguable that owning a Tesla, let alone two is “borderline unnecessary.” Definitely overspending. But I don’t care.

my friend same.
2012s
signature X
m3p and m3awd on way
(selling S, but in meantime they’ll have a car each, and one for each cat lol)

i guess the cats will need the 3s since they’ll have the FSD hardware hahha