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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I don't use the past to predict future. I look at what exactly happened and try to predict what will happen based on the details. Relying on spreadsheet data is not a good way to predict the future.

Most shorts don't understand why there were big losses and they won't understand why profit is coming. Tesla is rapidly becoming the most capable car manufacture in the world. Take a look how they produce the car seats. They are producing thousands of seats per day in their own factory, through automated production lines. These seats are heated, 12 way power adjustable. It's not easy to automate the production, but once they are done, they are so efficient. Pretty soon people will realize all the spending was well worth it. Duplicating this kind of lines will cost much less than the first time. My rough estimate is the second line will cost 1/3 money and time compared to the first line. All the R&D is already done. I just keep accumulating cash and keep adding shares whenever I want.

Tesla is one of the few car companies that has 12 way passenger's seat at any trim level... If one's significant other travels with them a lot, that alone can be a driving force to go T.
 
Tesla-Model-3-performance-1-e1532026342714.jpg
 
Trapper John M.D. on Twitter

What's up with all these cars roasting in the sun in LA?
As noted, Tesla has two primary distribution lots , Richmond for rail and Lathrop for trucking. They also have a local lot for Fremont distribution center. Other local sales/delivery sites have offsite storage where real estate is at a premium or just not available onsite. That was before the three, but much more obvious now.
 
First you don't believe Tesla was stockpiling cars to avoid hitting the limit in Q2. Now facing the evidence showing you are wrong, you guys are still in denial. Of course Tesla have a logistics problem when it comes to the stock piled cars, cause it's a one time thing, it does not make any sense to beef up the whole delivery pipeline just for this.

You guys pretend to care about financials yet have no idea how business deal with peak vs steady demand to maximize profits. How lame!

Trapper John M.D. on Twitter

What's up with all these cars roasting in the sun in LA?
 
re getting different tires for P M3 to improve performance

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk 55m55 minutes ago
Replying to @DMC_Ryan
Definitely. We gave up some grip & width in exchange for range. Would recommend stickier tires & wider on rear for best performance. You might get 3.3 sec 0-60 mph or better with optimized rims & tires.


and, re Needham note today suggesting cancellations are outpacing orders,


Replying to @vincent13031925 @bonnienorman and
Dunno where this bs is coming from. Who knows about the future, but last week we had over 2000 S/X and 5000 Model 3 *new* net orders.

this is quite good for a car barely available (North America) to not available (rest of world) for test drives, from friends or Tesla, which is about to change. I'd imagine we will see FUD ignoring all this and claiming demand problems given the goal for a 10K weekly supply next year.
 
I was just reading about The Fox and the Hedgehog. The fox knows a little about a lot and a hedgehog knows a lot about a little. This is oversimplified, there are some aerial hedgehogs or ocd foxes.
Anyhow, I’m generally a fix with some ocd issues. I’m interested in many things but ocd enough to skill up in some specialties. I wonder if most Tesla fans aren’t fox types and skeptics hedgehogs. The discussion noted that hedgehogs were bad predictors, of long term tends. I expect they are better forecasters than predictors, meaning for ongoing trends, they are probably pretty good, but not so much for disruptive change. Perhaps this is pretty abstract to be on track, but I think understanding skeptics and fudmeisters and even haters may not convert any or many, but might help keep them from winning converts to the dark side.
Hedgehogs are going to focus on trailing sales. Nobody grows 80% yoy, so how is Tesla going to grow that fast? How to explain is to get in the car and compare to competitive landscape after a drive. Killers have been right on horizon like a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow for 6 years. If easy why isn’t anyone really here in volume yet?

Tesla doesn’t have auto assembly skills of other mfrs, so they can’t compete? Tesla is not a great Mgr yet, but they are a great battery chemistry leader and pack assembler. This is the key advantage, with software and direct sales. These are hard to understand if you’re not a generalist.

They’ve had the field to themselves but won’t competenwhen the Germans bring it, or the Japanese or Detroit or Chinese. The battery plant, the chemistry and engineering and scale are all driving a pace of innovation that no one is close to yet. There can be some advantages of close competing, you can draft behind the leader who’s spending more on r&d. This works if you have the right staff and can stay or get into a drafting position. Maybe someone will get there, but they’re not going to before 2022, even if Tesla stopped developing and innovating now.

Maybe VA can setup a fox and hedgehog poll. I’d like to better understand the why of the passionate disagreements. I see a bias to liberals with Tesla fans, but overall pretty nonpartor bipartisan love or hate. I noticed I’m aligned with Diogenes politics on twitter, but obviously opposite re Tesla.
 
Someone brought up the short burn comment from Elon. There's been a full court press by shorts, and an own goal since that comment. Obviously, the burn didn't happen.

That said, it is phenomenal what Tesla has accomplished in the past year. It boggles the mind that the stock has gone nowhere in the same time. While the spirits are low, I am feeling more bullish than ever. I am just waiting for 2q results to be behind us, which might have some kitchen sinks in it. I feel it's going to be clear skies from there on, whether the street reads it as good or bad.

The good times are close. Just need to hang tight for a couple more weeks. Cheers to all the longs. This has been a long time coming.
 
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