General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[elasalle]

Given that EM, JB etc core focus in on M3, who is responsible for GF2(Buffalo)? The Solar roof is delayed as hell it looks like ... I think we need someone sleeping on factory floor
(Google Tesla Buffalo and we see articles like Panasonic selling to others due to Tesla delays etc. )
It has been mentioned that second half of year we should see a large progress, but it hasn't happened ..
I was always counting Solar Roof as an X-Factor for the next 2 quarters ..

 

[Teslie]

6,000 Model 3s per week at $60,000 ASP each comes to $360,000,000 revenue per week. Let that sink in before Monday morning...

RT

And 4,000/week x 50,000$ makes 200,000,000 $

 

[Paracelsus]

This is a terrific trend - "After topping out at 7 cents per kWh in 2009, the average levelized long-term price from wind power sales agreements has dropped to around 2 cents per kWh." A tremendous game changer, and ripe for large-scale storage projects

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/report-confirms-wind-technology-advancements-continue-ryan-wiser/

 

[EinSV]

Loup Ventures (Gene Munster’s firm) published an interesting piece showing returns of high revenue growth tech companies have been trouncing lower growth tech companies. Although this may seem obvious the authors note that this is not the case among stocks generally, as value stocks tend to outperform growth.

Their definition of “growth” is annual revenue growth exceeding 20%. Tesla has enjoyed extremely high growth and some best long-term returns on the stock market. With the prospects for ludicrous growth of 50% or more continuing for at least the next five years IMO Tesla is in a great position to continue to enjoy excellent long-term returns.

“Looking back further, an analysis of 5-year returns shows a more dramatic difference. For the same basket of stocks, we looked at average y/y revenue growth from 2013 to 2017 (in place of consensus estimates). Those with average revenue growth of 20% or more were considered growth stocks and the others ‘non-growth.’ This yielded 14 growth stocks and 25 non-growth. The five-year return for the growth group was 485% vs. the non-growth return of 116%, a more than 4x difference.”​

There's Still No Such Thing as a Value Stock in Tech | Loup Ventures

 

[Paracelsus]

Note that wind at $0.02/kWh is less expensive than hydro production in the Pacific NW.......hydro is produced for approximately $0.25/kWh and then sold to PUD's for about $0.04/kWh, who then wheel it to customers for about $0.08/kWh. Hydro capacity is insufficient to provide peak demand in the Pacific NW so natural gas peaker plants are used to supply peak power at 4x to 5x that cost. So a tremendous market was created for wind even at $0.07/kWh in 2009 and it's capacity quickly grew to roughly the same capacity as the NW hydro dams - about 10,000 MW. The NW grid managers are now struggling with cheaper California solar on the same grid during peak hours because there is a tremendous market demand for low cost peak power. And California Solar appears to be threatening to strand the natural gas peaker plant assets as it grows.

The NW response to this of course was not to put Electrical Rate Payers first by embracing new sources of sustainable cheap power, but for Gov Inslee of Washington to write an open letter asking California Solar to be a better partner. That in part is much of my enthusiasm to see large scale wind in the Pacific NW coupled with energy storage opportunities actually able to price itself close to base load hydro pricing even at peak hours. The combination of excess California Solar and NW Wind + Storage has the capacity to completely disrupt the Natural Gas peaker paradigm by offering renewable energy at base load pricing during peak hours. And wind & solar have the capacity to do this without any of the significant environmental effects that Hydro has. There are more forces opposing the development of new battery GF's than we typically stop to think about, and yet once those battery GF's are on line the cost of power to residents and businesses has the opportunity to be reduced dramatically and still be profitable, all while increasing the sustainability of that power. The winners would be the economy, residential & commercial rate payers, and the planet. These must truly be short-sighted Dark Forces to be willing to vote NO in an attempt to slow the victory of that audience.

 

[gringotuanis]

Given that EM, JB etc core focus in on M3, who is responsible for GF2(Buffalo)? The Solar roof is delayed as hell it looks like ... I think we need someone sleeping on factory floor
(Google Tesla Buffalo and we see articles like Panasonic selling to others due to Tesla delays etc. )
It has been mentioned that second half of year we should see a large progress, but it hasn't happened ..
I was always counting Solar Roof as an X-Factor for the next 2 quarters ..

Solar roof is a joke so far. They have to focus on M3 and mass production. Solar roof too weak revenue. They need to be profitable on the cars first then they can focus on less essential/less profitbale things like solar roofs.

 

[electracity]

Solar roof is a joke so far. They have to focus on M3 and mass production. Solar roof too weak revenue. They need to be profitable on the cars first then they can focus on less essential/less profitbale things like solar roofs.

The Tesla solar business is a joke so far. GTM estimated that Tesla's Home Depot customer acquisition cost was $7000. Here are Australian solar prices in $AUD.

Home solar system prices: Current averages by city - Solar Choice

 

[davecolene0606]

The Tesla solar business is a joke so far. GTM estimated that Tesla's Home Depot customer acquisition cost was $7000. Here are Australian solar prices in $AUD.

Home solar system prices: Current averages by city - Solar Choice

All indications are Buffalo will be on line within the next 365 days and PW production set grow exponentially in the same period. Largest problem will be training enough techs to do installs.

Fire Away!

 

[RobStark]

The five-year return for the growth group was 485% vs. the non-growth return of 116%, a more than 4x difference.”


There's Still No Such Thing as a Value Stock in Tech | Loup Ventures

Family Guy: Cat Meeting re; Value vs Growth Stocks.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Note that wind at $0.02/kWh is less expensive than hydro production in the Pacific NW.......hydro is produced for approximately $0.25/kWh and then sold to PUD's for about $0.04/kWh, who then wheel it to customers for about $0.08/kWh. Hydro capacity is insufficient to provide peak demand in the Pacific NW so natural gas peaker plants are used to supply peak power at 4x to 5x that cost. So a tremendous market was created for wind even at $0.07/kWh in 2009 and it's capacity quickly grew to roughly the same capacity as the NW hydro dams - about 10,000 MW. The NW grid managers are now struggling with cheaper California solar on the same grid during peak hours because there is a tremendous market demand for low cost peak power. And California Solar appears to be threatening to strand the natural gas peaker plant assets as it grows.

The NW response to this of course was not to put Electrical Rate Payers first by embracing new sources of sustainable cheap power, but for Gov Inslee of Washington to write an open letter asking California Solar to be a better partner. That in part is much of my enthusiasm to see large scale wind in the Pacific NW coupled with energy storage opportunities actually able to price itself close to base load hydro pricing even at peak hours. The combination of excess California Solar and NW Wind + Storage has the capacity to completely disrupt the Natural Gas peaker paradigm by offering renewable energy at base load pricing during peak hours. And wind & solar have the capacity to do this without any of the significant environmental effects that Hydro has. There are more forces opposing the development of new battery GF's than we typically stop to think about, and yet once those battery GF's are on line the cost of power to residents and businesses has the opportunity to be reduced dramatically and still be profitable, all while increasing the sustainability of that power. The winners would be the economy, residential & commercial rate payers, and the planet. These must truly be short-sighted Dark Forces to be willing to vote NO in an attempt to slow the victory of that audience.

Electricity is already extremely cheap in PNW compared to most of the nation. Would be nice to see it trending towards almost free as that would really help juice sales of renewable power alternatives out here. Washington State has a very high gas tax because of no state income tax, in fact gas in Seattle metro area costs almost as much as it does in California! A lot of people here would be willing to move to EV's if they actually knew how much cheaper it was to drive an EV instead of an ICE.

 

[elasalle]

Is this possible?
How to Use Twitter to Share Blog Content - dummies

 

[AWDtsla]

I couldn't find the Boring Company thread or I would take this over there. Pointer?

Boring Company

 

[neroden]

Note that wind at $0.02/kWh is less expensive than hydro production in the Pacific NW.......hydro is produced for approximately $0.25/kWh

That cannot possibly be right. Recheck your sources. Is there something wrong with the hydro dams in the NW? With capital costs paid off (long ago), the operations & maintenance costs of existing hydro are generally estimated at between $0.01 and $0.03 / kwh.

If you've got excess power at peak (from cheap wind + cheap hydro) but are still running natural gas plants during times of low production... you in the NW need batteries. Period. I think most of your hydro plants are not pumped-storage. (Here in NY we have Niagara Falls, which is pumped-storage and already specifically pumps in the day and releases at night, which matches up well with solar.)

 

[neroden]

Boring Company

Oh, hell, I didn't think to look under "SpaceX". Could someone move that thread please?

 

[mongo]

That cannot possibly be right. Recheck your sources. Is there something wrong with the hydro dams in the NW? With capital costs paid off (long ago), the operations & maintenance costs of existing hydro are generally estimated at between $0.01 and $0.03 / kwh.

If you've got excess power at peak (from cheap wind + cheap hydro) but are still running natural gas plants during times of low production... you in the NW need batteries. Period. I think most of your hydro plants are not pumped-storage. (Here in NY we have Niagara Falls, which is pumped-storage and already specifically pumps in the day and releases at night, which matches up well with solar.)

I think they dropped a zero and meant to type $0.025 .

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - Saturday: Tesla Pickup truck could ‘maybe’ come sooner, says Elon Musk as it becomes his favorite upcoming product

 

[Paracelsus]

That cannot possibly be right. Recheck your sources. Is there something wrong with the hydro dams in the NW? With capital costs paid off (long ago), the operations & maintenance costs of existing hydro are generally estimated at between $0.01 and $0.03 / kwh.

If you've got excess power at peak (from cheap wind + cheap hydro) but are still running natural gas plants during times of low production... you in the NW need batteries. Period. I think most of your hydro plants are not pumped-storage. (Here in NY we have Niagara Falls, which is pumped-storage and already specifically pumps in the day and releases at night, which matches up well with solar.)

You are absolutely correct @neroden........that should read $0.025 per kWh, which was my intention. My typo mistake. Thanks for the catch!

And yes, we absolutely need batteries in the Pacific NW. On as large of a scale as anywhere in the country IMHO. I rant about that often here with the operators, but there seems to be a resistance to it at many levels (not just the natural gas industry twisting arms here). It is as if they need to see the peaker plants reach an end of life on the depreciation schedule before the transition, but the 'cost' of waiting will bury them under the cheaper prices of electricity on the grid from California Solar. I am sensing the reluctance to transition to storage is in part because wind could severely undercut hydro here, and there is already a pretty successful information campaign showing that the 4 Lower Snake River hydro dams are already losing a tremendous amount of money each year - especially since much of the transportation by barge that they were designed to facilitate now goes by rail instead. You and a few others might enjoy this podcast by an Idaho economist who has very closely followed that issue..

Streamline episode 3: Economist sees dim future for lower Snake dams

and here is an interesting interview with an ex Army Corps of Engineers Civil Engineer discussing that issue as well.

 

[PaulRocket]

Tesla is on track for incredible production record this quarter albeit being behind on Model 3 goal

 

[Paracelsus]

Another article showing the benefits of Tesla's Hornsdale Power Reserve battery storage project in South Australia

"On his first day as prime minister, Scott Morrison got to test his theory that the Tesla big battery in South Australia is about as useful as the Big Banana in New South Wales. It didn’t work out well."

On first day as PM, Morrison learns difference between Big Battery and Big Banana

 

[Curt Renz]

Reuters - a half hour ago: Tesla wins dismissal of shareholder lawsuit over Model 3 production