Help Fight the FUD

[fhteagle]

I think there's a more important takeaway here than exactly how many miles it takes to offset the extra embodied energy in an EV powertrain vs ICE powertrain. That number of miles is going to vary on vehicle type, battery size, and most importantly grid mix. Going by electricitymaps.com, there's more than an order of magnitude difference between the cleanest and dirtiest BAs in North America, countries in Europe, etc. So the "break even mileage" might vary by an order of magnitude in various grids also. But people don't want to consider complexity, they want a quick and dirty soundbyte as a proxy for proof.

Rather, I think we need to focus on the message that in nearly every situation, the EV will break even way before the median out of service mileage for a car. Sure, if you are one of the tiny percentage of people whose only choice is to buy 80% coal/20% methane grid mix electricity, buying a Toyota Pious instead _might_ be a wash on lifetime emissions. In other words, the best a gasoline powered hybrid can do is about the worst an EV could do. In every other scenario I have looked at, the EV will have lower lifetime emissions starting from a very low percentage of a reasonable vehicle lifetime.

In other words, keep it simple when trying to fight the FUD. The numbers are there and in the EVs favor for the few people who care to run the numbers accurately.

 

[israndy]

I was at an EV show today when someone came up spoiling for a fight "I've been a surfer my whole life and I know there is no sea level rise". Seemed to start to get him to hear me when I mentioned actual facts like "I can't buy Fire Insurance for my cabin because of the increase in wildfires".

Some people you just can't save.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1727366043285549436

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1727894446241362271

 

[willow_hiller]

Direct response from Tesla to WaPo:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1734374558105293081

 

[israndy]

Hmmm... Could this be the start of a PR department?

 

[willow_hiller]

FYI, the Associated Press is reporting that a driver from Virginia who died when his Model Y went under a truck (eerily similar to the crash from 2016) did have Autopilot active. Unfortunately you need to dig through the article to learn he was traveling 70 MPH in 45 zone. The crash investigators said he could have stopped in time if he was going the speed limit; which translates to: it was not possible for him or AP to stop given the speeds.

But of course the AP is blamed despite the excessive speeds and unavoidable accident.

 

[Electroman]

FYI, the Associated Press is reporting that a driver from Virginia who died when his Model Y went under a truck (eerily similar to the crash from 2016) did have Autopilot active. Unfortunately you need to dig through the article to learn he was traveling 70 MPH in 45 zone. The crash investigators said he could have stopped in time if he was going the speed limit; which translates to: it was not possible for him or AP to stop given the speeds.

But of course the AP is blamed despite the excessive speeds and unavoidable accident.

On a 45 MPH zone - which is not a freeway - Tesla's Autopillot will not drive more than 50 MPH. So it is either not on Autopilot or the driver was pressing the accelerator.,

 

[Tiger]

On a 45 MPH zone - which is not a freeway - Tesla's Autopillot will not drive more than 50 MPH. So it is either not on Autopilot or the driver was pressing the accelerator.,

A funny and unsafe thing is that the current Autopilot will (erroneously) assume a speed limit of 60mph on a road with traffic lights. Some safeguards should be in place for misinterpreting the speed limits when circumstances clearly indicate speed limit cannot be so high.

 

[israndy]

I have yet to experience that, although I have experienced where the map data tells the car that a road w/o a speed limit sign is 25 MPH until you finally get to a sign miles on and it turns out it's been 50 the whole time, explaining all the cars piling up behind you. That seems more unsafe as people will do crazy things to get by you quickly when you are essentially blocking the road.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1737228720933409064

 

[UkNorthampton]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1737228720933409064

Eyeballing the graph, it looks like "faster" isn't as fast as it will actually be. "Supercharged" line required.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Eyeballing the graph, it looks like "faster" isn't as fast as it will actually be. "Supercharged" line required.

First note the Tweet says BEVs, but the actual numbers are BEV+ PHEV. The "faster" line shows 19% this year and 28% in 2024. Not likely. This year will come in a bit above 17% and next year probably 22-23%. China is driving this bus (70% of unit growth from 2020-23) and they're now in the linear part of their curve. Europe has one more year of slow growth before the next 95g tier kicks in. US/ROW are still too small to move the needle.

2025 should show strong growth, maybe recovering back up to the "fast" line.

 

[Buckminster]

Some field report on the EV state here in Brazil

Was in São Paulo for two days, the amount of EVs I saw dwarfed my previous visit, lots of BYD “taxi”, some other electric delivery contraptions and a reasonable number of private owners vehicle

But the BYD taxis was a lot, to the point that not even looking for them I saw everywhere

Obviously I took the opportunity of doing a test drive in both the BYD Dolphin and the GWM Ora, both for the equivalent of $30k, pretty nice, but expensive for what it is, but the big fail and what tells me Tesla has nothing to fear, the software in both was absolutely garbage, confusing mess of menus, bad screen and the biggest turn of, there is no built in route planing with charging, none, zip, nada. You are on your own using third party apps to figure it out, no estimate SoC on arrival also even without considering chargers

Both would be ok for urban and short highway trip, but that combined with a low range, doesn’t make it a compelling purchase, which is a shame, because I absolutely loved the Ora and might get one in the future if Tesla takes too long to offer something here

Both can’t do a 250 km trip without charging, the GT version of the Ora can but it’s considerably more expensive, and that only in optimal conditions, bring a little cold, wind and rain and range drops a lot

Sadly I couldn’t find any Teslas, I knew there were some used ones for sale nearby, but they were in the same stores that sell Ferraris, Lamborghinis, Rolls Roxie and similar, and my lack of shame only goes so far

Adding to all that, BYD store was packed, GWM only me there

Tesla has zero competition

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1737893843498864710

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1738173682315370927

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1739836032017903692

 

[ggr]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1739836032017903692

As usual, a beat up piece. It wasn't a "Tesla" robot, it was a fixed robot on the assembly line. probably a Fanuc or Kuka.

 

[Dikkie Dik]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1740097070789198241

 

[DarkandStormy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1740097070789198241

What parts of the Reuters article were refuted?

This seems like a big self-admission / self-own on Tesla's part -> they say they fixed some 120k vehicles with suspension issues. That's some 2.5% of Teslas ever made, yet they never issued a recall (except in China where the government forced them). That's...bad. Any other automaker with that high of a failure rate on a safety critical component would be ridiculed and investigated (well, I guess Tesla is being investigated).

Did they refute the 5% failure rate claim? Nope.

That Tesla went out of their way to say, "ok, yeah it sounds bad, but...it's actually mostly true" tells me the Reuters reporting is largely accurate. They just don't like the negative press from it and are trying to spin it favorably.