High mileage model 3 LR battery life expectancy

[Ariel Siler]

I recently got a model 3 LR to work as a taxi.
I drive around 93k miles per year

I'd like to know what would be the sweet spot for me for selling it before having to replace the battery after it gets out of warranty.

How many miles can this car should run without having to replace the batteries?

After how many miles i should seriously consider replacing the car?

Or maybe is it a matter of a certain degregation % rate?

 

[Rocky_H]

I drive around 93k miles per year

I'd like to know what would be the sweet spot for me for selling it before having to replace the battery after it gets out of warranty.

How many miles can this car should run without having to replace the batteries?

After how many miles i should seriously consider replacing the car?

The premise of the question is basically a bad financial perspective. You are talking about intentionally taking on approximately a $30,000 loss (the punch in the face depreciation of replacing the car) to avoid taking on a $15,000 loss (replacing the battery). So the answer for "when" would be: never do that.

Using an electric car for this is a very smart choice because operating costs are cheaper per mile. But the way you should handle something like that, when running extremely high miles, is to drive the hell out of it for a very very long time and just consider the battery as a wear item. Try to get half a million miles or more out of each battery.

 

[Ariel Siler]

I believe that at a point that i have a car with 300-400k miles the cost of replacing a battery would be higher than the value of the car, this means that if the battery dies, it will be more cost effective to buy a new one.

So in my opinion the optimal sale time should be pretty close to the max life expectancy and at least get half of the price while it worth something so i don't have that huge cost.

The question is how many miles will the battery last?

 

[UncleCreepy]

There is no accurate answer to your question, just a very generic one: expect about 1000-1500 full charging cycles. So if your battery lets you go let's just say 265 miles on average, you can expect around 265k-400k miles, possibly more if you drive a lot since calendar degradation is going to be less of a factor.

 

[Rocky_H]

I believe that at a point that i have a car with 300-400k miles the cost of replacing a battery would be higher than the value of the car,

This part is true.

this means that if the battery dies, it will be more cost effective to buy a new one.

No it doesn't mean that. That is not a logical conclusion. The value of the car as a whole is irrelevant.

Look at a long term timeline of 800,000 miles. Let's say you get to that point every 200,000 miles of replacing the battery or replacing the car. That would be 4 total intervals of making this decision.

4 X $15,000 = $60,000
4 X $30,000 = $120,000

You would be spending double the amount to replace the car every time instead of just replacing the batteries. This just doesn't make financial sense to consider the entire car as a disposable item instead of just the battery.

So in my opinion the optimal sale time should be pretty close to the max life expectancy and at least get half of the price while it worth something so i don't have that huge cost.

No, resale value is not a consideration. "worth something" is not something to consider here. You are not being forced to sell off the car, where resale value means anything. The best financial decision is to wring every last bit of life out of the car, and replace the batteries when that becomes necessary.

The question is how many miles will the battery last?

OK, that's a separate question. There are predictions, but hard to have much real data yet. There are estimates of things like 300K or 500K, but hard to see how realistic that is going to be. I would be pretty confident of 200K.

 

[Hiline]

I believe that at a point that i have a car with 300-400k miles the cost of replacing a battery would be higher than the value of the car, this means that if the battery dies, it will be more cost effective to buy a new one.

I doubt this would ever happen. Today, the battery pack replacement cost is $15k. Where would you possibly find a Model 3 for less than $15k?

Let's say in 3 years, the battery pack replacement cost goes down to $10k. Where would you possibly find a Model 3 for less than $10k at that point?

And let's say someone hypothetically does have a $15k Model 3 to sell you right now. Would you ever buy it when you don't know how it's been driven and have no idea how long the battery may last? A Model 3 that cheap is cheap for a reason.

If the only component that fails is the battery pack, it is far more economical than any alternative to just get a new battery pack.

 

[izzzyyd]

Wtf is this even fail basic math? Of course resale value of the used car matters…..

It would almost not matter if the batteries truly got 300-500k range as then you’d get basically nothing for the car, then might as well plop in a new battery control arms and enjoy.

Problem is if batteries shitting happen much more frequently say at the 100k mark, then it might make sense if resale values are high resell get a new car.

 

[izzzyyd]

Every high mileage thing I’ve seen about Tesla includes a repaired replaced battery 2x already.

Haven’t seen a single one that’s 200k+ original battery

Maybe the newer batteries are supposed to have much higher cycle counts, and then Toyota working on solid state batteries might make these points mute

 

[izzzyyd]

Also don’t forget you’re probably going to replace the motor too.

Would be nice if musks claims were true of 500-1M mile teslas on original batteries motors but highly doubt it

Would be highly stupid from a profit standpoint too

 

[FLRifleman]

The answer to that will vary depending on the charging habits. In general, you will gain a much greater cycle life by not charging to full and not depleting the battery too low. That middle ground of ~15%-90% will give the best cycle life. Charging via 240v will also put less stress on the battery than supercharging. Keep the battery happy, and I don't see why you couldn't get 500k+ out of it. Whether or not those charging habits works for your use case is up to you. So the answer really is "it depends".

 

[izzzyyd]

The answer to that will vary depending on the charging habits. In general, you will gain a much greater cycle life by not charging to full and not depleting the battery too low. That middle ground of ~15%-90% will give the best cycle life. Charging via 240v will also put less stress on the battery than supercharging. Keep the battery happy, and I don't see why you couldn't get 500k+ out of it. Whether or not those charging habits works for your use case is up to you. So the answer really is "it depends".

Maybe the newer batteries with double the life cycle and if age doesn’t brick them pre maturely

 

[MaartenD]

Every high mileage thing I’ve seen about Tesla includes a repaired replaced battery 2x already.

Haven’t seen a single one that’s 200k+ original battery

Maybe the newer batteries are supposed to have much higher cycle counts, and then Toyota working on solid state batteries might make these points mute

It's your last comment that makes the point. I've also seen a lot of high mileage Teslas with replaced batteries. But those are all early Model S. Is there accurate data on battery replacement in Model 3s?

As for the original question: you have 120.000 miles (or 8 years) warranty on the battery. So you know when to sell it if it is warranty that you're afraid of. 120.000 miles is about 1 year 3 months with your driving. But at that point I would have a look at the resale value and the cost of a new vehicle. If you would have to spend more than what replacing a battery cost, I would not sell the car.

 

[timk225]

My early '18 build Model 3 now has 115,000 miles on it. So this battery better fail before I get to 120,000, or it better last forever!!!

 

[izzzyyd]

My early '18 build Model 3 now has 115,000 miles on it. So this battery better fail before I get to 120,000, or it better last forever!!!

Nice hoping mine goes that far given my Tesla is a salvage no warranty haha

 

[dafish]

Ariel:

To answer your questions instead of arguing with you:

if you take the time to learn how to manage the battery you should easily get 450,000 miles out of it.

I doubt there is a sweet spot for resale vs miles. I would expect it to have very little value at 300k.

 

[android04]

Also don’t forget you’re probably going to replace the motor too.

Would be nice if musks claims were true of 500-1M mile teslas on original batteries motors but highly doubt it

Would be highly stupid from a profit standpoint too

The higher failure rates of battery packs and motors (due to bearing failure) were in early Model S. Tesla has learned a lot since then and the newer cars are designed better. There are plenty of Model 3 that are above 200k miles that are on original battery and motor. My Model 3 is over 5 years old and at 119,469 miles. I expect to make it well over 200k with no major issues (which is another 2.25 years with my commute).

 

[Physicslawyer]

I just saw a 1 year update video of a driver who put 100k miles a year and needed to buy a new battery right when it went out of warranty.

We don't have enough high mileage examples yet. My Prius Prime recently hit 300k miles. Our 2007 Prius has 510k miles. I drive 50k miles per year. There is no way I would do this with my MYP. I'm not running that expensive an experiment.

The driver went back to using his Toyota as a taxi.

 

[LowlyOilBurner]

Wow. I complain about driving 25-30,000miles/yr for work.

I replace cars every two years or 50-60,000miles. I’ve been doing this for years, as have other coworkers who pile on miles. 50-60k seems to be the sweet spot for decent trade in numbers, plus, you really don’t have to worry about anything, as the cars are usually still under warranty (50,000 bumper/bumper), or slightly out of warranty.

 

[Physicslawyer]

Wow. I complain about driving 25-30,000miles/yr for work.

I replace cars every two years or 50-60,000miles. I’ve been doing this for years, as have other coworkers who pile on miles. 50-60k seems to be the sweet spot for decent trade in numbers, plus, you really don’t have to worry about anything, as the cars are usually still under warranty (50,000 bumper/bumper), or slightly out of warranty.

We go back and forth weekly between our home and a vacation home, which is 400 miles alone. The other 600 is 120 miles per day for work. The 2007 Prius is my first true commuter car. I had a Jaguar before that and it got awful gas mileage, so I bought a Porsche to drive since it got better gas mileage with the four cylinder, go figure. Jaguar to Porsche to 510k mile Prius that is literally held together partially with duct tape...hah

Does your job cover the cars?

 

[LowlyOilBurner]

We go back and forth weekly between our home and a vacation home, which is 400 miles alone. The other 600 is 120 miles per day for work. The 2007 Prius is my first true commuter car. I had a Jaguar before that and it got awful gas mileage, so I bought a Porsche to drive since it got better gas mileage with the four cylinder, go figure. Jaguar to Porsche to 510k mile Prius that is literally held together partially with duct tape...hah

Does your job cover the cars?

I have a healthy car stipend.