jelloslug
Active Member
I don't see why not. It would be unlikely though, IMO.Can they request 2017 VINs and not build all the cars?
RT
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I don't see why not. It would be unlikely though, IMO.Can they request 2017 VINs and not build all the cars?
RT
I don't see why not.
What would be even more meaningful (but only at this particular time of the year) was whether those were 2017 or 2018 VINs. I suspect 2018, but if they were 2017 that would be very telling indeed. I'll have to see if I can dig up the discussion thread on that VIN query tool and see if they mentioned.
I suspect that the VINs are tied to parts tracking on the factory floor, that must pull the parts from the wearhouse and stage them when they're preparing the next batch of builds, and VIN is likely used to track which parts are assigned to which car. The block of VINs that they're requesting each time could be linked to the limit of how many parts they can stage on the factory floor. If they do hit a few thousand a week in Dec, we'll see new VINs registrations coming fast and furious for sure.
I don't know how fast the VINs become public though...there may be a substantial lag there. They may become public even AFTER delivery.
Do we have any certainty on this? (eg. the registry MUST be searchable at least from day one of delivery by law).
So, has anyone searched for any 2018 VINs? I would think that they could still reserve a block of them since they won't be doing dual motors until later in the year. And, searching for a dual motor VIN to show up would give a good indication on them getting ready to introduce dual motors.Tesla will begin assigning MY2018 VINs on December 22nd, 2017. Here's the VIN decoder posted by NHTSA a week ago for MY2018 (10th digit corresponds to the model year). H = 2017, J = 2018.
I ordered my Model X in September 2016, but requested delayed delivery to March 2017. My car was first assigned a 2016 VIN, but the VIN was subsequently altered (the character representing model year changed, the sequence number and everything else was left untouched) to reflect that it was manufactured in jan 2017.Agreed.
Also VINs include several digits that are dependant on configuration (e.g. dual or single motor etc.), production, and model year. So they can only be assigned once the configuration has been confirmed by the client and production has been planned.
Otherwise the car might end up having a VIN with the wrong configuration, fall into the wrong model year (if used too far in the future) or assigned to the wrong plant (in the future...hopefully).
So VIN assignation should be a good general indicator at this stage. At least to signal significant production start.
I don't know how fast the VINs become public though...there may be a substantial lag there. They may become public even AFTER delivery.
Do we have any certainty on this? (eg. the registry MUST be searchable at least from day one of delivery by law).
I ordered my Model X in September 2016, but requested delayed delivery to March 2017. My car was first assigned a 2016 VIN, but the VIN was subsequently altered (the character representing model year changed, the sequence number and everything else was left untouched) to reflect that it was manufactured in jan 2017.
In other words, I don't think we should rule out that assigned 2017 model 3 VINs could magically change into 2018 VINs if the production doesn't ramp swiftly enough.
IMO the most likely scenario is that Tesla reports the VINs when they stage parts and start producing a batch of cars, and use the VINs to track parts assigned to each car. I suspect that they have room to batch ~1200 cars in the Fremont factory at a time. In late Oct they registered the next batch of 1000 cars beyond #1134, then shortly after we started seeing VIN > #1000 delivered in early Nov. My guess is that Tesla was (mostly) done with the cars up to #1134 in late Oct, and they were moving those out of the factory to start on the next batch (>#1134), and registered the new VINs then.Agreed. That's why those indicators should be used only to asses the GENERAL trend. Certainly not an indication of precise numbers of units due to all the uncertainties we have discussed.
Yeah, most of all - if 2017 or 2018 year. Which begs the question - Can it be a 2017 VIN, but delivery happens after Dec 31st? And IRS requests VIN number so that may be the qualifier for the tax credit.I’ll be interested to see when the non-employees who just received their invites get assigned a VIN.
I don’t think the IRS cares about VINs, they want to know when the car is put into service.Yeah, most of all - if 2017 or 2018 year. Which begs the question - Can it be a 2017 VIN, but delivery happens after Dec 31st? And IRS requests VIN number so that may be the qualifier for the tax credit.
Well they do care about the VINs, or at least they ask for it. I don't think they decode it to determine the year of the vehicle. They ask for when the vehicle was placed into service, and I think this is the determining factor they care about. After all, you could purchase a 2017 model year vehicle (with 2017 VIN) in 2018 and not be eligible to file for your tax credit until 2019.I don’t think the IRS cares about VINs, they want to know when the car is put into service.
The wording is 200,000 qualifying vehicles sold in the US, not 200,000 vehicles claimed to the IRS (unfortunately)I had orignally thought/hoped that they would use the VIN numbers to uniquely identify credits claimed and would use that number to count up to the 200,000 vehicle mark rather than US sales reported by the manufacturer (who would have no idea whether the buyer actually went through and claimed the credit). This would mean, for example, that even though Tesla sold 160,000 vehicles in the US to date, if only 140,000 had claimed credits, that we are farther from 200K than we think. But in the end, I think they just use the VIN as a tracking number to make sure that the credit is not claimed twice for the same vehicle.
The past week sure has filled in the gaps!For those who are interested where we are with VIN count : Model 3 VINs
July: NADA, except some hand built RCs as they have now. Tesla may claim that they're off of the line, but that's a bit fuzzy. These cars will be a mix of hand & machine assembled, using some production components and sub-assemblies and some prototype parts.
August: Same as July, but a higher proportion of assy and parts from production processes.
September: 100 - the first cars completed almost entirely on the actual production line, with all going to key employees
Month of October: 500 - employees
Month of November: 1000 - employees
Month of December: 2000 - employees and California
Month of January: 5000 - California
Month of February: 10000 - Start of general release
By June 2018, you'll see production of about 5,000 per week.