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Highest production VIN in the wild

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How about the X number of employees who ordered a month or two ago? I can understand being skeptical on numbers but coming up with an estimate that is fewer than November seems a little silly.
Whatever the exact number will be, 161k - 163k is probably the score up until Q4'17. The important question is whether the steep rampup Panasonic announced recently will actually occur. If so, then Q1 is a certainty. If not, then Q2 is most probable.
 
Okay, then...

Allan Pep on Facebook said:
Drove by the Fremont Delivery Hub today to check out the latest batch of M3’s being prepped for delivery.......and it’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas!
All the the available colors were there! The VINs varied (1xx - 1xxx) which is encouraging, as the reworks are making it out the factory doors. The highest VIN I saw from the ones I’ve looked into was as high as 1910!

Vin1910.jpg
 
it's December 1, which means 4 weeks is December 29, and we're talking Tesla time. I am highly doubting anyone ordering now would get their car this month. I'd love to be wrong, but that's realistic in my opinion.

I estimate 300 based on ~30 people on the forums saying they got their invitation, and guessing based one someone else's number that 10% of people would get on the forum to post that ( I actually think a higher percentage would, but I'll use the low end). Maybe there are a few more employees waiting, but they've had their invitations open for months, so I'd guess many would have already placed their order and had it fulfilled. I would think MOST employees would either wait for AWD/Performance (if they're high paid) or wait for standard battery (for the regular Joe working in store/factory). Maybe double that 300 to 600, but I'm doubtful at this point, and I was the one saying over and over that I was sure I'd get mine before end of year for months now. I only accepted that I wasn't last week. (non owner, 20th in line east coast).


I think the ramp up MIGHT start this month, but I don't think anyone ordering beyond this week should expect their car before January 1. I'd love to be proven wrong.
How do you like you 300 Dec delivery estimate now?
 
What's your point? VIN 1090 was spotted 3 weeks ago, yet as of end of November they've delivered just 712.

Side note, very glad to see a higher VIN finally, but it doesn't mean anything is moving any faster.
712 deliveries is an estimated number, it is not a fact...
VIN1910 is not a sign of a faster ramp up? Hmmm think you are too pesimistic
 
712 deliveries is an estimated number, it is not a fact...
VIN1910 is not a sign of a faster ramp up? Hmmm think you are too pesimistic

LOL! A few days ago I was accusing @McHoffa of being way too optimistic!

While it's a good sign, only one occurence of a VIN between 1910 and 1131 may just mean that they are working their way backwards again for some reason. Point is we just don't know. It is encouraging, but until we see a slightly larger sample size it's probably too early to read too much into the steepness of the ramp yet. Nonetheless, we are more than likely on the brink of seeing another step up in the production rate. I am hopeful we will see the evidence soon.
 
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VIN1910 is not a sign of a faster ramp up?
One VIN that's high isn't a sign of anything yet (as we've seen a few times already)... show me hundreds.

Hmmm think you are too pesimistic
Yeah, well, I was the optimist for the past 18 months about the production numbers, arguing that they would meet their goals for 100-200k this year, then arguing that they'd meet the new goal of 5000 per week by December, then arguing that they'd definitely meet the latest goal of "thousands per week" in December (each time positive I'd get my car this year for my 40th birthday on Christmas). Now I don't get my car this year, don't get the tax credit for this year's taxes (which really sucks for me), and probably won't get the tax credit at all now either.

So I've been turned into a realist, not a pessimist :)
 
Yeah, well, I was the optimist for the past 18 months about the production numbers, arguing that they would meet their goals for 100-200k this year, then arguing that they'd meet the new goal of 5000 per week by December, then arguing that they'd definitely meet the latest goal of "thousands per week" in December (each time positive I'd get my car this year for my 40th birthday on Christmas). Now I don't get my car this year, don't get the tax credit for this year's taxes (which really sucks for me), and probably won't get the tax credit at all now either.
It is hard to claim any targets upfront when production even hasnt started.
But now where are in the middle of it. First VIN 1090, now VIN 1910 and first non employees getting their car in about three weeks.
When they publish their received VIN's, it will show the ramp up so far.
I am still optimistic :)