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How long before the X becomes Outdated?

Discussion in 'Model X' started by tanner, Oct 2, 2015.

  1. tanner

    tanner Active Member

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    I purchased my Model S about a year after the car entered production (I took delivery in June of 2013)... At the time, the car was brand new and Tesla had made virtually no significant changes to the car. However, shortly thereafter, updates started flying in faster than Apple refreshes their products: first with the p85+, then Auto Pilot / dual motor variant, now the P90D with ludicrous mode, etc. How long until we reach a similar scenario with the X? If it's anything like the S, roughly a year or so from now? I fully expect a P100D soonish (especially with Elon claiming crazy-high 600 mile range bumps). Would it be best to wait for new variations of the X? Any thoughts?
     
  2. trils0n

    trils0n 2013 P85

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    Elon was talking about max range driving in epic hyper-mile mode, aka driving at 24 mph. Not real world range. He was discussing range record (currently 550 miles) and was just riffing on that idea when he made that statement, which it seems every article is glad to take completely out of context.
     
  3. timf

    timf Member

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    I don't think you'll see nearly the number of changes to Model X that Model S went through. There will be smaller and larger battery packs rolled out over time, but in terms of performance they are already pushing the platform about as far as it can go. Most of the enhancements introduced on Model S were a direct result of Model X development.

    Tesla's focus over the next 2 years will be bringing Model 3 to market, and since that's a separate platform I don't see many major changes happening to the S/X platform. Once Model 3 is out I see them making more technological enhancements to the S/X platform in order to maintain a premium over the Gen 3 platform besides just size.
     
  4. Mark Z

    Mark Z Active Member

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    I have friends who use obsolete iPhones when they could get a new one for free. Technology is always changing, but the great news with the Tesla Motors Model S and X are the software updates that give you the latest feature if new hardware is not required. My Model S Signature Red car from November 2012 is preforming better today than when new! I am not alone in that assessment, as many other Signature owners report the same thing. Tesla Motors has replaced items that required an updated version or any part that was defective. With over 54,000 miles in almost 3 years, the vehicle sounds great. The early squeaks in the Panoramic roof were solved years ago and have never returned. The body integrity is far superior to some of the GM Cadillacs I have driven. Performance is better too, as software updates have tweaked the way the car operates and is optimized as never before. While new hardware is inevitable, IMHO, Tesla Motors may have installed some wiring we don't know about for future upgrades. And even if they didn't, then there is always the possibility of modification in the future. When that was not possible, early owners decided to trade up to a P85D when the dual motor cars were manufactured. While it required ordering a new Model S, they received great resale value and the cost was minimal. Learning from them allows me to face the future with confidence that the Model X purchased today will be a wise choice now, and an excellent path to the day when more autonomous driving features will be added over time. If the newer safety features of Model X can prevent an accident or injury, then I consider the investment of a new Tesla EV the best financial move I can make, now and for the foreseeable future.
     
  5. eloder

    eloder Member

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    Personally, I don't see continuous product improvements as bad. Whether they do or do not happen, you still have the product you originally bought. (And with Tesla, you still get some new features for free so it's all good!).
     
  6. wdolson

    wdolson Active Member

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    At this point I think the hardware technology other than the batteries is fairly stable. There may be a few changes in creature comfort features like they already introduced a 6 seat option for the Model X, but I don't think there will be the level of hardware tech change the Model S saw. There will be bug fixes and batteries will improve. Tesla has said the 85/90 battery packs will be upgradable to new battery capacities in the future and that's where there will be the most tech change. The same technology that makes battery swap possible also makes battery upgrades easy.

    The Model S was an experimental car in 2012. It was well developed, but they learned a lot when the cars were out in the world and made a lot of changes because of that. All those lessons are already incorporated into the Model X. I believe the Model S has only gone through one change this year (with three changes announced in one day), but that's a slower rate of change than previous years.
     
  7. tanner

    tanner Active Member

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    I suppose, but like the elimination of the P85 and the implementation of the D / autopilot killed the resale value for my model s, which is in mint condition with less than 7,000 miles. I bought it for ~115,000 new once everything was said and done (tax, etc.) and now it's worth $70,000? To me that's just not right...
     
  8. andrewket

    andrewket 2014 S P85DL, 2016 X P90DL (soon 100)

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    This is my concern with the X shipping with auto pilot v1 hardware. You know v2 is right around the corner. We've seen mules with extra sensors, and Elon even said the X would do more. I think tesla decided fairly late to ship the X with v1 hardware.

    There is a reason AP was not mentioned at the X event.
     
  9. Joel

    Joel Active Member

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    Or X could have autopilot v2.0 and Elon did not want to mention it when it has literally been a year (October 9, 2014) when Autopilot v1.0 was announced and it is still not out in production. I don't believe Tesla went as far as they did technology-wise with X and did not push the envelope with Auto pilot.
     
  10. Mark Z

    Mark Z Active Member

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    Let me add one more assumption. Model X has a higher profile and IMHO Tesla Motors may want real user data flowing into their database so the software can be tweaked to accommodate both vehicles. AP worked perfectly at the D event when all the paint lines were new and perfectly placed. Can you imagine the frustration that every car company is going to have when deciding how to handle the changes that occur to paint lines during road repairs and major road construction projects?

    I will remain positive. Elon Musk now drives a Model X. IMHO, he is testing the latest software every time he drives. When Elon likes it, we will probably get the update soon afterwards. I wouldn't want it any sooner.
     
  11. andrewket

    andrewket 2014 S P85DL, 2016 X P90DL (soon 100)

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    It doesn't have any new sensors, and there are areas where it is fairly obvious that tesla had/has intention of placing one there. The biopic front cameras, for example.
     
  12. CarlK

    CarlK Member

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    #12 CarlK, Oct 2, 2015
    Last edited: Oct 2, 2015
    Sure. Youc can always wait but there will always be better things to come out. That will continue long as we live and after we die. So how long you plan to wait?
     
  13. Joel

    Joel Active Member

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    How do you know it does not have any new sensors or cameras? :wink:
     
  14. tanner

    tanner Active Member

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    Elon talked about how they were able to develop new kinds of sensors that could see through metal (there are sensors on the sides of the falcon wings that are under the metal). It's possible that the extra sensors you're referring to are already built into the first production models.

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    I really hope you're right. I honestly don't want to go through the same thing with the X that I've been through with the S (as far as massive depreciation is concerned).

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    Exactly, that's the golden question.

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    Right, but still... Sounds like there will be pretty significant battery upgrades in the very near future. Maybe once the Gigafactory is complete?
     
  15. MrBoylan

    MrBoylan Member

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    It's called the "Early Adopter Tax." If you want to be among the first to enjoy (and show off!) this gorgeous beast, then buy it without hesitation, but know that it will be "outdated" (note, I did not say "obsolete") the minute you drive off the lot. And yes, it is likely that it will depreciate more quickly than the one they make next year. But you will have enjoyed driving (and showing off!) your Model X for a year, at a time when very few others are doing so. And that's gotta be worth something. You will also be helping pave the way to the Model 3, cheaper, more ubiquitous, more powerful batteries, and other future really cool Tesla products.

    You can be rational, wait for things to settle down, see if there's a 3rd row option some day, maybe improved A/P hardware, a longer range battery pack, etc. Or you can make a leap of faith, and just enjoy it as it is and take a (possible) financial hit on resale. If your number were lower than mine then I would say "WAIT!" but only for purely selfish reasons. :)
     
  16. tanner

    tanner Active Member

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    yeah, but Elon is NOT a basis for comparison. He probably has a fleet of prototypes at his disposal for testing purposes. X, S or Model 3...

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    thats just it though. I'm reservation 15.8k, so I won't be an early adopter so to speak. I'll likely receive mine Q1 - Q2 of 2016. At that point, they may be preparing the P100D or something else entirely.
     
  17. ChadS

    ChadS Petroleum is for sissies

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    If you buy 2 months before something new and cool comes out, yeah your 3-month depreciation will likely be higher than most cars in this price range. But I don't think the 3-year depreciation on the Model S has been abnormally high at all.

    If you plan on selling as soon as something new comes out, this is worth worrying about. But if you're going to hold it for a few years because what you bought has what you need, I don't think this matters.

    It's been a little painful at time seeing all the cool new S features, but I still love my 2012 and it does more than it did when we got it.
     
  18. tanner

    tanner Active Member

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    YES +1 I can't tell you how badly I want the all-wheel drive dual motors, autopilot, etc.
     
  19. MrBoylan

    MrBoylan Member

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    I wouldn't worry about the battery improvements over time. The way battery technology improves, a cheaper, more powerful, more efficient battery is always right around the corner. If 250 miles of range works for you then buy the 90D. Depreciation of the Tesla batteries is so slow that you should still have over 85% battery capacity in ten years (depending on how much you drive). In 10 years, you can trade in your battery for a 120D or whatever they have then, most likely at a relatively affordable cost. I know some 60 kWh owners have upgraded their cars to 85kWh and that's a pretty simple procedure (though still not cheap, at this point).
     
  20. tanner

    tanner Active Member

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    yeah, I don't EVER want to have a Tesla that's out of warranty though. I can't even imagine the cost of replacing the drive unit. I already had to have mine replaced at 5,000 miles and SO MANY OTHERS have had multiple replacements. Must be a nightmare to service out of warranty (tesla also charges about $200/hr to work on them).
     

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