How much are you willing to pay for FSD V12?

[stopcrazypp]

Why waste time discussing level 4 before level 3 has been achieved?

To be fair, I don't think Tesla has any plans for L3. L3 is not a necessary step to take before going to L4. There are quite a few industry players that have indicated they feel L3 is the most dangerous level and that they will skip it.

 

[gflar]

Alright, let’s assume level 2 or 3. How much are you willing to pay?

 

[JB47394]

Alright, let’s assume level 2 or 3. How much are you willing to pay?

There are only two levels of automation: one where I monitor the system and one where I do not. For a system that I must monitor, it should be standard equipment on the vehicle. For a system that I don't have to monitor, I'd pay perhaps $5,000 one time, or $75/month. For commercial use, I'd expect Tesla to go for a slice of the gross.

 

[CDennis100]

There are only two levels of automation: one where I monitor the system and one where I do not. For a system that I must monitor, it should be standard equipment on the vehicle. For a system that I don't have to monitor, I'd pay perhaps $5,000 one time, or $75/month. For commercial use, I'd expect Tesla to go for a slice of the gross.

Agree. I did not buy at 10, 12, and certainly not at 15k. I rent the service once a year just to see the improvement….200 a month that is just for entertainment and curiosity. Nothing else.
I still believe autonomous driving remains 5+ years away, with HW5 and other enhancements. I do not believe my 21 M3LR will get there as is.

I’d pay 5k for it now, or about 2k for EAP. Since neither are happening, I’ll rent FSDb again around Mar/Apr and see what’s new since a few months ago.

Absolutely love my car…for what it is. You dreamers can keep….dreamin.

 

[spacecoin]

What is missing?

In Level 2 the system assists the driver with the OEDR (object and event detection). The driver is always driving in L2 (even though the system assists with OEDR and steering).

In both Level 3 and Level 4 the system performs the full OEDR, so that the driver do not have to watch the road anymore. She can instead watch a movie or do some emails.

The main difference between Level 4 and Level 3 is that there needs to be a fallback ready driver in L3. This means that at any time, the system can ask for you to take over, and while you reorient to the OEDR (stop looking at the movie and start looking at the road), a process that takes 10-15 seconds, the system is still driving at the same high reliability. An L3 system needs to be designed so it knows that it will not handle an upcoming road situation or a weather condition. An L2 will just beep, fail and drive off the road (like FSD does).

In L4 the system will never need you to take over, and you can be asleep in the back seat.

L4 "robotaxi" are typically bounded to a geo-area as a part of the operational design domain (ODD) so that the service provider can validate the functionality and reliability.

For L3 the ODD tends to be narrow, like highway-only, dry roads up to 60 mph for example. Like the MB DrivePilot queue chauffeur is limited to dry roads and 40 mph. There is an existing standard (UNECE R153) for highway autonomy since a few years back that allows for systems up to 130km/h.

To answer your question, the thing that's missing is reliability. Tesla does about 10-15 miles per disengagement right now, and you probably need to do 30000-50000 miles between failures or more to let people not watch the road.

It doesn't seem very likely to me that any camera-only system including Tesla's system (FSDb on hw4 or hw3) will evolve into an autonomous system L3+ with a meaningful ODD anytime this decade unless there are a few major breakthroughs in computer vision.

 

[kabin]

I don't think TSLA's FSD has earned the credibility needed for even Level 2 so I wouldn't hold out hope for Level 3 or 4 anytime soon. The way things are going I wouldn't pay a dime waiting for FSD Level 3 or 4.

I also wouldn't put much weight in Elon's talk about v12. Recall 'one stack to rule them all' (j11) was gonna be incredible but in the end took much longer to release and so far has been a dud. They still need to clean up that mess in aisle 11.

 

[kabin]

Yes, Elon said profit margin could be *huge*.

Yep, also said Tesla's future profitability heavily relies on automation and therefore the need for Elon to overstate and overpromise.

 

[gflar]

Yep, also said Tesla's future profitability heavily relies on automation and therefore the need for Elon to overstate and overpromise.

I don't think Elon is overstating or overpromising. I mean he is from our perspective, but it seems he truly believes what he says. The type of software they are making AI is complex and can grow exponentially in complexity, so you never know how long it takes until you start doing it. I took an AI course back in my college days, and compared to other types of programming. AI programming can get complex very quickly.

 

[johnnycnote]

I wouldn't buy it. I would use it as a monthly feature that I could add and remove as needed. I'm paying $200/mo now for FSDb and, while a bit high, I don't plan on getting rid of it

 

[dbldwn02]

First this is asking about pricing on fairy dust. Elon is just being Elon and offering off the cuff aspirational thoughts responding to a Tweet. Sometimes I believe the super smart part of his brain is time delayed from the mouth controller. Just saying V12 will come out of Beta has 0 context, 0 specifics and 0 details so could mean 100,000 different things or more likely nothing at all.

Yup. Windshield wipers and auto-high beams are still Beta, after 6 years. Tesla will hide behind the Beta tag forever. That way, it never has to fully work.

 

[dbldwn02]

Alright, let’s assume level 2 or 3. How much are you willing to pay?

 

[gflar]

I wonder how much difference HW4 will make. Right now, FSD is a software problem not a hardware limitation problem.

 

[ygtgngr]

If EAP was $2K I would definitely get it. For FSD I guess $5K sounds okay, but I don’t know if I need it, so I will go for it only if it’s tied to the account not the car so I can move it to the next car.

 

[ucmndd]

It does not matter what you would pay for it. Tesla will sell out all its level 5 FSD cars for robotaxi use (own and customers) and Tesla will also sell out all retrofits to other compatible vehicles. The market price for it will be very high based on supply and demand (Tesla monopoly).

Thank you for the real life lol. I needed that.

 

[E90alex]

Tesla has still not achieved Level “2.5” (hands off wheel but attention still required). Much less Level 3 (hands off, no attention required but driver needs to be ready to take over when alerted to).

Level 4 (full autonomy/no driver required in certain areas) or Level 5 (full autonomy anywhere/everywhere) is all but a pipe dream for Tesla at this point. Definitely not in the next 1-2 years.

I’m of the camp that does not believe Level 4/5 will be achievable with vision only as Tesla claims. There are just certain situations and tasks that are better suited for and more accurate with other sensing systems and not just approximating with camera images.

 

[E90alex]

I wonder how much difference HW4 will make. Right now, FSD is a software problem not a hardware limitation problem.

It’s definitely both. If HW3 was not a limiting factor, they wouldn’t have come out with HW4. Software can only do so much when given a garbage image to start with.

I mean just looking at the potato quality camera feeds on my HW3 car does not give me confidence that I’m supposed to rely on THAT to “see” things around me. Maybe the computer sees a better image than what’s output to the screen, but still not very confidence inspiring.

 

[gflar]

It’s definitely both. If HW3 was not a limiting factor, they wouldn’t have come out with HW4. Software can only do so much when given a garbage image to start with.

I mean just looking at the potato quality camera feeds on my HW3 car does not give me confidence that I’m supposed to rely on THAT to “see” things around me. Maybe the computer sees a better image than what’s output to the screen, but still not very confidence inspiring.

The front camera of HW3.5 can cover 450ft and the rear around 330ft, and can probably identify objects further than human vision. If you look at images of HW3.5 cameras the images at that distance is still clear and visible. From what I understand, the images are converted to vector base objects and that is feed to the AI system for processing. I don't think the newer hw4 highres camera will add that much advantage. People drive with glasses and some cannot see that far in front, and little visibility behind and to the sides.

When driving you track the vehicles closest to you, not the ones hundreds of feet away. So I feel the current cameras are good enough.

 

[ucmndd]

If HW3 was not a limiting factor, they wouldn’t have come out with HW4.

Sure they would have.

 

[gflar]

Why does Intel and AMD and Apple come up with faster Hardware every year? Is it because the current HW is inadequate? It's more for increase sales, now people feel they have to upgrade because their hw is old.

 

[CleanDemon]

I’d pay $25K for a fully transferable license I could use across Tesla vehicles, assuming FSD is ready for primetime. This would keep me in their vehicle family.