How much are you willing to pay for FSD V12?

[DarkForest]

Tesla will probably improve the "Enhanced Autopilot" to be a very good levels 3-4 without taking liability

Pet peeve of mine—saying “levels 3-4 without taking liability” is like selling a root beer float without the ice cream.

Without taking liability, it’s only level 2, and without the ice cream, it’s only root beer.

And no, there’s no such thing as “as good as level 3 but no liability” because 1. levels are not about how good the driving is, it’s specifically about liability** and 2. if they promise it’s as good as something but they won’t put their money where their mouth is, their claims are worthless***.

** if you want to redefine what the levels mean to use a different measuring stick, call it “level C” or “rank 3” or something. The “level (number)” nomenclature in this context is taken already, and it refers to liability.

*** if a company says their product has a 10 year guarantee but claims it isn’t liable if the product doesn’t last for 10 years and won’t replace it nor refund you, guess what? It’s not a guarantee.

 

[gflar]

Pet peeve of mine—saying “levels 3-4 without taking liability” is like selling a root beer float without the ice cream.

Without taking liability, it’s only level 2, and without the ice cream, it’s only root beer.

Level 2 and 3 still requires driver intervention and has driver override. You cannot take liability if someone else is in ultimate control of the vehicle. asking Tesla to take liability at level 2 or 3 makes no sense. Maybe at level 4

 

[JulienW]

Level 2 and 3 still requires driver intervention and has driver override. You cannot take liability if someone else is in ultimate control of the vehicle. asking Tesla to take liability at level 2 or 3 makes no sense. Maybe at level 4

When L2 is engaged you are the driver who is responsible and in control 100% of the time. When L3 is engaged you are NOT the driver of the car and can read, not pay any attention, watch Netflix and are a passenger until after the system requests you take over and resume driving. Then you become the driver again.

L2=Driver Assist Feature
L3=Autonomous Driving

 

[Tiger]

Pet peeve of mine—saying “levels 3-4 without taking liability” is like selling a root beer float without the ice cream.

Without taking liability, it’s only level 2, and without the ice cream, it’s only root beer.

And no, there’s no such thing as “as good as level 3 but no liability” because 1. levels are not about how good the driving is, it’s specifically about liability** and 2. if they promise it’s as good as something but they won’t put their money where their mouth is, their claims are worthless***.

** if you want to redefine what the levels mean to use a different measuring stick, call it “level C” or “rank 3” or something. The “level (number)” nomenclature in this context is taken already, and it refers to liability.

*** if a company says their product has a 10 year guarantee but claims it isn’t liable if the product doesn’t last for 10 years and won’t replace it nor refund you, guess what? It’s not a guarantee.

Depends if you like to drive or not. For example, I like to drive and I would never buy FSD as it would take away my pleasure of driving (think disney land without the attractions but only the queues). But I might pay for a driver assist system for which I am liable but it can do things like "hold the wheel while I put on my mascara". Not that I use mascara, but you get the jist. For anything more than that I'd just call a taxi and get smashed.

 

[DarkForest]

Depends if you like to drive or not. For example, I like to drive and I would never buy FSD as it would take away my pleasure of driving (think disney land without the attractions but only the queues). But I might pay for a driver assist system for which I am liable but it can do things like "hold the wheel while I put on my mascara". Not that I use mascara, but you get the jist. For anything more than that I'd just call a taxi and get smashed.

The level descriptions do not depend on our preferences.

What you described is “level 2 without driver attention monitoring” which will never happen after all the crashes and deaths in the early versions of AutoPilot and the now implicit manufacturer liability that the lack of driver monitoring implies.

Not relevant, but… what I’m personally hoping for on HW3 is level 2 with camera monitoring only, ie no wheel nag. Personally, that would be worth the $10k I paid for FSD, even if it does fall far short of Elon’s “forward thinking statements” and my initial expectations of what I was buying.

 

[gflar]

When L2 is engaged you are the driver who is responsible and in control 100% of the time. When L3 is engaged you are NOT the driver of the car and can read, not pay any attention, watch Netflix and are a passenger until after the system requests you take over and resume driving. Then you become the driver again.

L2=Driver Assist Feature
L3=Autonomous Driving

At L3 you are still the driver. Below is L3 definition.

SAE's L3 automation level definition

“The driver must still be prepared to intervene within some limited time, specified by the manufacturer, when called upon by the vehicle to do so. This level of automation can be thought of as a co-driver or co-pilot that's ready to alert the driver in an orderly fashion when swapping their turn to drive.”

Source

Self-driving car - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[JB47394]

The SAE categorizes things, so this got categorized, but that doesn't make the categories meaningful to consumers. SAE Autonomy levels are just fluff to make engineers happy. We can know that because companies will throw around those level numbers without them meaning anything of consequence.

What matter is whether the driver is monitoring the system. That, and whether the driver is liable, which is pretty much the same thing. So there are two JB Autonomy Levels, 1 and 2. Level 1 is driver monitoring and liable while Level 2 is driver is not monitoring and not liable.

So you can have JB Level 2 on highway and JB Level 1 on secondary roads. Or JB Level 1 in snow and JB Level 2 in clear weather.

Alternately, Autonomous systems (no monitoring, no liability) vs Driver Assist systems (monitoring and liability).

 

[JulienW]

At L3 you are still the driver. Below is L3 definition.

SAE's L3 automation level definition

“The driver must still be prepared to intervene within some limited time, specified by the manufacturer, when called upon by the vehicle to do so. This level of automation can be thought of as a co-driver or co-pilot that's ready to alert the driver in an orderly fashion when swapping their turn to drive.”

Source

In L3 you are NOT the driver when the system is active FULL STOP.

In L2 you are the driver.

 

[gflar]

In L3 you are NOT the driver when the system is active FULL STOP.

In L2 you are the driver.

View attachment 953160

Yes, you are not the driver but are the co-driver meaning another primary driver who must be prepared to intervene at any time FSD cannot handle the situation. So driving to work could be FSD driving 50% of the way and the co-driver driving the other 50%. Level 3 isn’t set your destination and seat on the back seat type level. You are still required to take over on certain situations.

Read the full description not the one or two liner definitions of L3.

 

[JB47394]

Oh, I forgot the other reason that SAE levels are important.

To prime web debates.

 

[Supcom]

Oh, I forgot the other reason that SAE levels are important.

To prime web debates.

Over and over and over. *yawn*

 

[Tiger]

The level descriptions do not depend on our preferences.

What you described is “level 2 without driver attention monitoring” which will never happen after all the crashes and deaths in the early versions of AutoPilot and the now implicit manufacturer liability that the lack of driver monitoring implies.

I did not mean "without driver attention monitoring" with the mascara example. This will happen because manufacturer has no liability and capitalism will take its course of supply and demand.

Not relevant, but… what I’m personally hoping for on HW3 is level 2 with camera monitoring only, ie no wheel nag. Personally, that would be worth the $10k I paid for FSD, even if it does fall far short of Elon’s “forward thinking statements” and my initial expectations of what I was buying.

If you paid for FSD, you will eventually get the full deal, the only question is when, and will you have passed your FSD on to someone else. FSD includes upgrade of all necessary HW, they can afford it with the 80% profit margin when FSD is realized.

I'd rather have wheel nag than camera monitoring as the latter might interfere with my mascara

 

[JB47394]

FSD includes upgrade of all necessary HW

FSD has no built-in provision for hardware upgrades. They happen or not at the whim of Tesla. Elon stated that:

The cost and difficulty of retrofitting Hardware 3 with Hardware 4 is quite significant. So it would not be, I think, economically feasible to do so.

He also offered his usual optimism for Hardware 3's capabilities:

Hardware 3 will not be as good as Hardware 4, but I’m confident that Hardware 3 will so far exceed the safety of the average human. So how do we get ultimately to – let’s say, for argument’s sake, if Hardware 3 can be, say, 200% or 300% safer than humans, Hardware 4 might be 500% or 600%. It will be Hardware 5 beyond that. But what really matters is are we improving the average safety on the road.

Taken from:

Elon Musk kills hope of Tesla retrofitting new Autopilot/Self-Driving hardware

Elon Musk has killed the little hope some had for Tesla in offering a retrofit to the new Autopilot/Self-Driving hardware...

electrek.co

 

[dbldwn02]

FSD has no built-in provision for hardware upgrades. They happen or not at the whim of Tesla.

To be fair, he said pretty much the same thing about MCU upgrades and then started selling them for $2.5k about a year later.

 

[Tiger]

FSD has no built-in provision for hardware upgrades.

Exactly, you only get what is absolutely necessary for FSD to work, not the latest and the greatest.

 

[JB47394]

Exactly, you only get what is absolutely necessary for FSD to work, not the latest and the greatest.

How will we know when FSD is working correctly? The description on the Tesla web site isn't exactly a detailed functional specification.

 

[CDennis100]

How will we know when FSD is working correctly? The description on the Tesla web site isn't exactly a detailed functional specification.

Take it from somebody that rents it every few months just for fun and see how close…or far away it is. I just rented a few days ago…first time in five months.

I mean, it’s fun, it’s impressive, but we remain YEARS and 1-2 hardware upgrades before it’s hands free.

 

[JB47394]

Take it from somebody that rents it every few months just for fun and see how close…or far away it is. I just rented a few days ago…first time in five months.

Sorry, I should have been clear that I was asking a rhetorical question. I have FSD.

we remain YEARS and 1-2 hardware upgrades before it’s hands free.

Except that FSD is a driver assist system, so it's not supposed to be hands-free. The whole hands-free thing is something that Elon talks about, but the company doesn't offer any such product. Which brings me back to my original question of how we'll know when FSD is working correctly. As far as I'm concerned, it remains a rhetorical question because FSD has no clear definition in any of the documentation coming from Tesla. So we'll know it's working correctly when Tesla tells us that it is.

 

[Tiger]

How will we know when FSD is working correctly? The description on the Tesla web site isn't exactly a detailed functional specification.

When Tesla takes liability, you will know. Without that it's just another gimmick.

 

[spacecoin]

At L3 you are still the driver. Below is L3 definition.

No you are not ever the driver when the system is operating in L3 mode. 99/100 people does not understand what OEDR is and that the main difference between L2 is that the system assists with the OEDR in L2 and does the full OEDR in L3.

OEDR: The Key Differentiator Between SAE Level 2 And Level 3 Automated Driving

A recent article unfortunately characterized ProPilot 2.0 as an SAE Level 3 system.

www.forbes.com

Also, ”fallback ready” (DDT fallback) does not mean ”F-ing hell! take over immediately!!!“. It means ”Sir, I am sensing I won’t be able to drive in a bit, can you please start doing the OEDR now and take over in 10 secs or I’ll stop safely”.

I doubt current cars will ever get there.