How to Cancel?

[StraightDave]

It's unimaginable that a $35K car will translate over to one that can easily go 6 figures. Two different buying groups, imo.
.

They are? A quick search on Autotrader showed I can buy a used Model S in the Dallas area for as low as $55-65,000.

Used Tesla Model S for Sale in Dallas, TX 75250 - Autotrader

 

[doublejj]

Those who insist only 10-20% of pre-orders will cancel are being highly (and overly) optimistic. 2+ years is an extremely long time to wait for anything, let alone a car.

Among reasons that probably up to 50% or more of reservation holders cancel;

• Use the deposit for an alternate vehicle. This may or may not be a Tesla product.
• Need the money (tired of waiting).
• Find out how much options cost (the Model 3 they really want is going to cost $50,000 not $35,000)
• Expiration of tax credits (possibly jump to vehicle that still qualifies like the Bolt).
• Tesla has any kind of production delay.
• Find out that their deposit in the great lakes area, east coast, Canada will take an extra 12-18 months vs west coast delivery... pushing their "early" pre-order to still not receiving the car till 2019.

My personal guess is that cancellations will top 50%. Those least likely to cancel are line waiters who waited in person to put a deposit down. Those who saw a story on CNN, MSNBC or Fox that Tesla had a lot of preorders and quickly did a preorder for two cars online while knowing very little about the car (due to excitement) MOST likely to cancel.

I ordered a 2nd car yesterday....

 

[voip-ninja]

I ordered a 2nd car yesterday....

Good for you. Your single data point is completely anecdotal as to how this will pan out over the next 2+ years that most will have to wait to get a car they've never even driven, only seen a prototype of.

 

[doublejj]

Good for you. Your single data point is completely anecdotal as to how this will pan out over the next 2+ years that most will have to wait to get a car they've never even driven, only seen a prototype of.

I would order 3 if they let me...

 

[voip-ninja]

I would order 3 if they let me...

I would order 3 if they let me...

So you assume that all 400K pre-orders are as enthusiastic as you are. Interesting.

 

[doublejj]

So you assume that all 400K pre-orders are as enthusiastic as you are. Interesting.

Yes, until proven otherwise

 

[voip-ninja]

Yes, until proven otherwise

It is highly unlikely that Tesla is going to advertise how many cancellations they have. I would be willing to bet $100 that there have been at least 100 cancellations already.

There is a continuous trickle of new pre-orders and, at least in the near term, it is likely that the new pre-orders coming in will offset the cancellations they are getting.

 

[doublejj]

It is highly unlikely that Tesla is going to advertise how many cancellations they have. I would be willing to bet $100 that there have been at least 100 cancellations already.

There is a continuous trickle of new pre-orders and, at least in the near term, it is likely that the new pre-orders coming in will offset the cancellations they are getting.

Just watch those reservation numbers continue to rise, & they should take a big spike after the 2nd reveal...

 

[voip-ninja]

Just watch those reservation numbers continue to rise, & they should take a big spike after the 2nd reveal...

Yes, I have acknowledged that pre-orders will continue to come in. What you've failed to acknowledge is that there are numerous reasons that people can and will cancel their preorders. Will it be 10% or will it be approaching 50%? When someone on the east coast who plunked their deposit down after the reveal in hopes of getting a $35,000 model and the tax credit finds out they won't get it until late 2019 there's a very good chance they bail.

I would be willing to bet there are also thousands of pre-orders from people who financially cannot even purchase the car, but they have a credit card and don't mind carrying the balance, so they have their spot in line. When time comes to finalize options and get their final queue position (and have to pay a bit more to secure their actual build spot) a very good lot of them will HAVE to bail because they will find out they can't actually afford it (get approved for financing, etc).

 

[Unchangeable]

Those who insist only 10-20% of pre-orders will cancel are being highly (and overly) optimistic. 2+ years is an extremely long time to wait for anything, let alone a car.

Among reasons that probably up to 50% or more of reservation holders cancel;

• Use the deposit for an alternate vehicle. This may or may not be a Tesla product.
• Need the money (tired of waiting).
• Find out how much options cost (the Model 3 they really want is going to cost $50,000 not $35,000)
• Expiration of tax credits (possibly jump to vehicle that still qualifies like the Bolt).
• Tesla has any kind of production delay.
• Find out that their deposit in the great lakes area, east coast, Canada will take an extra 12-18 months vs west coast delivery... pushing their "early" pre-order to still not receiving the car till 2019.

My personal guess is that cancellations will top 50%. Those least likely to cancel are line waiters who waited in person to put a deposit down. Those who saw a story on CNN, MSNBC or Fox that Tesla had a lot of preorders and quickly did a preorder for two cars online while knowing very little about the car (due to excitement) MOST likely to cancel.

I agree with this. I am into the M3 and I waited in person for my reservation but if I am in the third or sixth bullet... I don't think my 2003 car can make it to then without major repairs and ~$40k+ is a no go zone for me unless gas spikes to $4+/gallon

 

[doublejj]

Yes, I have acknowledged that pre-orders will continue to come in. What you've failed to acknowledge is that there are numerous reasons that people can and will cancel their preorders. Will it be 10% or will it be approaching 50%? When someone on the east coast who plunked their deposit down after the reveal in hopes of getting a $35,000 model and the tax credit finds out they won't get it until late 2019 there's a very good chance they bail.

I would be willing to bet there are also thousands of pre-orders from people who financially cannot even purchase the car, but they have a credit card and don't mind carrying the balance, so they have their spot in line. When time comes to finalize options and get their final queue position (and have to pay a bit more to secure their actual build spot) a very good lot of them will HAVE to bail because they will find out they can't actually afford it (get approved for financing, etc).

I'll bet it will be fewer cancellations because unlike a usual impulse car purchase protocol, people will have 2 years to arrange financing.

 

[TrickyDimitri]

I'll bet it will be fewer cancellations because unlike a usual impulse car purchase protocol, people will have 2 years to arrange financing.

Some of us NEED 2 years to save for that down payment. I couldn't even fathom reserving more than one. Must be nice. ☺♥☺♥