HW3

[SirDubC]

Took delivery of my LR RWD M3 on 3/26. Manufacture date is 03/19, so not an inventory car. Wondering if it has HW3.

If you don't get your car by the end of this month, it's 95% likely that your delivery will be pushed to after 15 May 2019 because all production between now and 10 May 2019 will be for EU and Asia because Tesla wants to deliver Q2 production in Q2 and these destinations have long transit times. Therefore in each quarter, production starts with the furthest away destinations and ends with California. Check out this chart that shows how most deliveries happen in the last month of the quarter:

This would be a good thing because if you get your car by the end of this month, it won't be HW3. However, if your delivery is pushed to after 15 May, it will be HW3. If you were from California, your car would be delivered by the end of this month. However, because you are from Texas, I think you might have just missed the window for this quarter.

By the way, the low number of AWD VINs acquired is related to the fact that Tesla had lots of unsold 2018 Model 3 LR AWD in stock. If you look at the list here, on 19 Feb 2019, the number of Model 3s in Tesla's inventory was as follows:

• 255 Long-Range
• 654 Performance
• 3,482 Mid-Range
• 6,453 Long-Range AWD

All of these are 2018 models. The 10th character in the VIN is J for 2018. Tesla will clear the inventory by the end of this month. That's why Elon was upset with stores because he told them to clear the inventory but they couldn't. Also, that's why they came up with the $3,000 price drop for Model 3s on 28 Feb 2019 and then the 3% increase on 20 March 2019. Everything is designed to clear the inventory by the end of this month so they can move on to HW3.

There is a danger zone between 1-7 April 2019 buyers should watch out for. If for some reason there was no car to deliver to you but then suddenly Tesla says they can deliver between 1-7 April 2019, it means somebody refused that car when they tried to deliver it in the last week of March and this car definitely won't have HW3. In addition, a few days after you take delivery Tesla will announce that all cars exiting the production line have HW3. This announcement will most likely happen just after the 7 days refund window is already closed.

This could leave some buyers feeling tricked because Tesla is making only HW3 cars since 23 Mar 2019 but those cars are for EU/Asia but they won't tell you that. Instead, they will keep quiet and deliver an HW2.5 car even between 1-7 April 2019. Then they will keep quiet until the refund window is closed and then they will announce HW3 with a blog post. Ideally, Tesla should find a better way to implement hardware changes without upsetting the most recent buyers.

I recommend reading the opening message here and my long message here to understand why switching production from US to EU/Asia plays a role.

 

[Troy]

Took delivery of my LR RWD M3 on 3/26. Manufacture date is 03/19, so not an inventory car. Wondering if it has HW3.

It's unlikely that it has HW3. I don't know the exact date production switched to HW3 but it should be somewhere between 23-29 March 2019 for Model 3.

If you buy FSD, you will get the computer swap for free. If you don't buy FSD, it's not going to matter if you continue with HW2.5. Earlier I thought there might be some disadvantage but this is now less likely after Elon's tweet here yesterday.

 

[kengchang]

I wouldnt think so. At least for model 3 purchasing eap was ~1 in 15, FSD was like 1 in 50. It's a 30 min install. Mobile Rangers will likely do them as no lift is required.

Keep in mind S and X sales are way down and they are also ~ $130,000+ cars.

The 1 in 15 EAP and 1 in 50 FSD is way off.

EAP : (59.5%+16.5%) = 76%
FSD : 16.5%

 

[PoitNarf]

The 1 in 15 EAP and 1 in 50 FSD is way off.

EAP : 76%
FSD : 16.5%

View attachment 395286

Percentage of vehicles with FSD purchased is likely a bit higher than 16.5% now. That 16.5% figure mostly represents the percentage of cars that were ordered with FSD. With the recent FSD discount a few weeks back I wouldn't be surprised if the percentage of cars with FSD is at least 20%.

 

[kengchang]

Percentage of vehicles with FSD purchased is likely a bit higher than 16.5% now. That 16.5% figure mostly represents the percentage of cars that were ordered with FSD. With the recent FSD discount a few weeks back I wouldn't be surprised if the percentage of cars with FSD is at least 20%.

Yup, doubt people would go back to the tracking sheet and update it. Just saying he's way off on the EAP/FSD take rate.

 

[wcorey]

The 1 in 15 EAP and 1 in 50 FSD is way off.

EAP : (59.5%+16.5%) = 76%
FSD : 16.5%

View attachment 395286

I was curious myself, given some push back I received. I also was curious whether people still used that 'old' spreadsheet Troy did. (I thought there was someone else that took it over but that was 9 months ago). So suprise, people are still using it. I wasn't able to find me or my time frame on it. But yes, I do see recently orders for (E)AP and even FSD are up. That wasn't the case last summer. I wonder if people who didn't preorder it went back and changed their info once the price dropped. I reserved the car late summer 2017.

 

[SergeyUser]

If a car comes pre-installed with HW3, is it likely that down the road Tesla will offer reduced pricing to add FSD to V3 cars since they don’t have to do any hardware installation compared to a V2.5 car?

I don’t think Tesla will do that:
1. They may be have already priced in the fact that HW3.0 cars will not require a hardware upgrade;
2. Such step would’ve produced the same cascade of unhappy owners who pre-purchased FSD earlier like we seen in March.

 

[OCR1]

It's unlikely that it has HW3. I don't know the exact date production switched to HW3 but it should be somewhere between 23-29 March 2019 for Model 3.

If you buy FSD, you will get the computer swap for free. If you don't buy FSD, it's not going to matter if you continue with HW2.5. Earlier I thought there might be some disadvantage but this is now less likely after Elon's tweet here yesterday.

So you are suggesting that the production line for Model 3 is now using HW3? Would that mean that if someone places an order today they would receive a Model 3 with HW3 in a couple of weeks?

 

[whatthe2]

So you are suggesting that the production line for Model 3 is now using HW3? Would that mean that if someone places an order today they would receive a Model 3 with HW3 in a couple of weeks?

They are putting HW3 in the Model 3, but I don't think there's any guarantee that if you order now your will get HW3. You could get a HW2.5 that matches your config. Once the HW2.5 inventory is depleted, then anyone ordering will get HW3.

 

[PoitNarf]

They are putting HW3 in the Model 3, but I don't think there's any guarantee that if you order now your will get HW3. You could get a HW2.5 that matches your config. Once the HW2.5 inventory is depleted, then anyone ordering will get HW3.

I agree, we're likely still in the transition period with clearing out inventory that still has HW2.5. Probably a few more weeks until all new deliveries are exclusively HW3.

 

[kengchang]

I was curious myself, given some push back I received. I also was curious whether people still used that 'old' spreadsheet Troy did. (I thought there was someone else that took it over but that was 9 months ago). So suprise, people are still using it. I wasn't able to find me or my time frame on it. But yes, I do see recently orders for (E)AP and even FSD are up. That wasn't the case last summer. I wonder if people who didn't preorder it went back and changed their info once the price dropped. I reserved the car late summer 2017.

The percentage probably drops over time with cheaper model being released but I don't think it will swing from 76% to 6% (1 in 15)

 

[Troy]

So you are suggesting that the production line for Model 3 is now using HW3? Would that mean that if someone places an order today they would receive a Model 3 with HW3 in a couple of weeks?

Yes of course Model 3s produced now have HW3. However, the cars they are making now are for international orders. Therefore we won't see any of these Model 3s any time soon because they will be delivered in June.

If buyers in Europe or Asia/Pacific place an order now, they are 99% likely to get a Model 3 with HW3.0. However, I think in the US Tesla had 7,000-10,000 unsold Model 3s in stock at the end of Q1. I think they are hoping these will be delivered by 22 April because after the AUtopilot event, more buyers will ask for the HW3 version.

I would expect them to continue making cars for international orders until ~15 May 2019. Generally speaking, if your delivery date is before 20 May 2019 in the US, it's very likely that your car will be built in March 2019 or before and therefore it will have AP2.5. However, if your delivery date is after 20 May 2019, then it's very likely that your car will be built after March 2019 and therefore it will have HW3.0. The driver's door frame label shows the month of manufacture.

 

[OCR1]

Generally speaking, if your delivery date is before 20 May 2019 in the US, it's very likely that your car will be built in March 2019 or before and therefore it will have AP2.5. However, if your delivery date is after 20 May 2019, then it's very likely that your car will be built after March 2019 and therefore it will have HW3.0. The driver's door frame label shows the month of manufacture.

So do you believe the 2 week lead time being quoted on the website for SR+ is just wildly off the mark?

 

[Troy]

So do you believe the 2 week lead time being quoted on the website for SR+ is just wildly off the mark?

I think in Q2 they will deliver around 32K Model 3s in the US and 9K will be cars built in Q1. If somebody orders a Model 3 now and a matching car is found locally, then delivery will happen within a few days. If not, it will be built to order. In that case, the earliest delivery should be after May 20th.

 

[srs5694]

Took delivery of my LR RWD M3 on 3/26. Manufacture date is 03/19, so not an inventory car. Wondering if it has HW3.

Where did you get your precise manufacturing date? My window sticker specifies "3/2019," but it's not more specific than that. My delivery advisor specifically said that it had just arrived on a truck from the factory a few days before my delivery date (March 30), so factoring in a few days' transit time from California to Rhode Island, a manufacturing date similar to yours seems plausible.

In any event, with TeslaFi, you can find the options codes for your car. Mine includes the "APH3" code, which means the car has HW 2.5, if I'm correctly informed. OTOH, it's conceivable that TeslaFi's data is imperfect. If you want to give it a try, TeslaFi has a free 2-week trial period (or four weeks if you've got a referral code; I used the "undecided" code from this video -- note that it's not my video, just one I watched).

 

[SammichLover]

Where did you get your precise manufacturing date? My window sticker specifies "3/2019," but it's not more specific than that. My delivery advisor specifically said that it had just arrived on a truck from the factory a few days before my delivery date (March 30), so factoring in a few days' transit time from California to Rhode Island, a manufacturing date similar to yours seems plausible.

Tesla has the precise date in their database. All you need is a Tesla employee that has access to it and is willing to share that.

 

[wcorey]

The percentage probably drops over time with cheaper model being released but I don't think it will swing from 76% to 6% (1 in 15)

You are obviously free to think whatever you'd like. My comment was predicated on a rough average of none to EAP and none to FSD I made last summer. At the time there weren't 4 spreadsheets. In fact I can't even find my row, not sure why. Until I looked yesterday I had pretty much moved on. So, as an exercise you could undertake is find my posts from the time and I am certain some will reference that.I believe there were multiple versions of the spreadsheet at the time, I believe there was a single joint effort made between Troy and some other guy, CJ, that ultimately parted ways creating two source spreadsheets, then jkirkwood001 took one and I suspect split off another branch and he made several really impressive, for lack of a better word, DDE related charts and graphs. Beyond that, I don't know whatever to tell you.

 

[Hank101]

anyone know when HW3 will be installed in the 3?

 

[Kmartyn]

anyone know when HW3 will be installed in the 3?

Manufacturing dates after April 12, get HW3, if you mean as a retrofit, that is not clear, but expected to be after the software is more fully optimized for the new hardware in a couple of months.

 

[SammichLover]

anyone know when HW3 will be installed in the 3?

When they figure out how to make enough, and then you make it to the top of the todo list for the technicians/work hours assigned to HW3 installs.