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#61
TexasEV said:
It means owners of P85 cars are less likely to be price sensitive and more likely to want whatever is top of the line at that moment. I expect the P85Ds being bought to replace these cars won't last long either with their original owners if another big update comes along in a year or two. Nothing wrong with that, the highest end is where Tesla has it's biggest profit margin, but I think most of us with plain old 60s and 85s will be happily driving them for many more years.
Click to expand...

Well said... I agree ... The only thing that may bother me is if TM introduces a battery which can go 400 miles or so and battery swap is still not available...btw are current versions capable of battery swap if at all it happens?
 
#62
taurusking said:
Well said... I agree ... The only thing that may bother me is if TM introduces a battery which can go 400 miles or so and battery swap is still not available...btw are current versions capable of battery swap if at all it happens?
Click to expand...

There's been at least one 60 to 85 swap. I think if you asked now Tesla would tell you no and you'd have to push hard to even get that. I doubt they'd be willing to upgrade a 60/85 to some newer battery.
 
#65
Johan said:
Guys never forget this sometimes painful but universal truth: on an open market something is worth what someone is willing to pay for it... (I'm in the same boat).
Click to expand...


Trade-in is always less. And Tesla has to work it over, certify it and resell, if they pay you what you'd get, they'd actually be losing money to 'recycle' a car. This is a business guys. The only time in my whole life I traded in a car rather than selling it was when it was a real junker and I just wanted to get rid of it, otherwise, I always bought my new car, then sold my old one.
 
#66
lorih said:
Trade-in is always less. And Tesla has to work it over, certify it and resell, if they pay you what you'd get, they'd actually be losing money to 'recycle' a car. This is a business guys. The only time in my whole life I traded in a car rather than selling it was when it was a real junker and I just wanted to get rid of it, otherwise, I always bought my new car, then sold my old one.
Click to expand...

Some states calculate sales tax on the net. With 5 and 6-figure cars and trade-ins this can be significant make this vs that a wash.
 
#68
I took delivery on a P85+ on September 23. MSRP was $118,750. It has none of the new features. It currently has 600 miles and the trade in value I got from Tesla was $102k. In Illinois you only pay tax on the delta but that means i have to trade it in directly with Tesla in order to reduce the tax burden. I don't mind the depreciation over 3 weeks. I do mind the fact that I have to trade it in within 7 days and wait until December before I get a P85D. That is a major headache.

Does anyone have any experience in negotiating a short term lease (2 months or so) while I wait for my new(er) model? I hate the thought of giving up my new car for 2-3 months to wait for a P85D.
 
#70
I'm trying to keep the first post current.
I've added a trade in analysis for my car.

If others want to edit their quotes from further up in this thread, I'll edit in their analysis into the first post. If you do, please make it a one liner like-
107,701 sticker-7,500-17,500 $1/mile Yield 83,210 -15,000 Tesla's $1/mile 68,210
 
#71
If you do not mind, Please post your trade in offer from Tesla so we can comp...

I wonder what value, if any, Tesla is giving us for service plans and extended warranty which stay with the car and transfer to the new owner? In a private sale you get something for it.
 
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#72
That's a very interesting point. People (such as myself) who paid for the extended warranty option and the extended service plan would see all of that money vanish, with no corresponding expense in any form from Tesla. And they can make *another* round of that money for the same items if they sell extended warranties and service plans for the CPOs. For that matter, you could even argue about the accounting on the *initial* pre-paid four-year service plan, which for many people is now terminating after only one or two years.

I certainly view the extended warranty and the pre-paid service plans as having value in a private sale, and would argue that they have value for which I should be compensated to some extent in any sale to a dealer (other than Tesla).

andrewket said:
I wonder what value, if any, Tesla is giving us for service plans and extended warranty which stay with the car and transfer to the new owner. In a private sale you get something for it.
Click to expand...

- - - Updated - - -

@lolachampcar,

Thank you for starting this thread.

I wonder if you would mind also asking people to report the prices at which CPO vehicles are being *sold*, once that happens. The gold star data points will be any VIN where you got trade-in data *and* CPO sale data. But there will still be value when comparing like-to-like configurations. You might also have to ask people to report VINs.

Thanks,
Alan
 
#73
lolachampcar said:
Analysis from my car
107,701 sticker
-7,500 Federal Credit
-17,500 $1/mile (my normal depreciation number owning similar cars for three year stints)
Yield on a normal trade in for me would be
83,210
-15,000 Tesla's $1/mile
68,210
It looks like Tesla is using their $1/mile and $1K/month formula for my car once the Federal Tax Credit is deducted.
I am considering listing my car for $83K retail. I will not net the 6% Florida Sales Tax credit I would normally get on a trade but this may be the price I pay for upgrading before year three.

[...]

blox Boston
March delivery 2014 P85 with 8,000 miles, paid/list $112,700. Quote is for $80,000. So 7 months, 8k miles, $32,700 loss.
They compute this as the paid price minus the federal and state tax rebates/credits, times 76%.
Click to expand...

Hi, @lolachampcar,

At the risk of revisiting well-trodden ground, there are things I still don't understand about this approach to valuing the vehicle.

1. You subtract $17,500 for $1/mile depreciation, per your previous experiences with reselling vehicles. Then you subtract *another* $15,000 for Tesla's $1/mile depreciation. That looks like double-counting your mileage for depreciation purposes. How are these two things different?

2. You do *not* subtract Tesla's $1k/month for valuation purposes. Why not? (I confess that I wouldn't, but more on that in a moment.)

3. Why does everyone assume that the Federal tax credit should be deducted from the price of the car as part of the deriving the resale price?! If I'm buying a used car, I go back to look at the original MSRP, options, etc., via all the online valuation services. I almost never have access to the actual price paid by the original owner.

In the current algorithm, it seems as if the Federal tax credit benefit is being passed through more or less directly to the next buyer! The original owner is effectively penalized. Why?! Does this mean that if I buy a Massachusetts after-June-2014 Tesla in a private sale, I should expect the owner to also deduct $2500 from the price because s/he will receive the new MA EV tax credit? For that matter, it's not completely out of the question for an individual to have carry forward losses or similar that would wipe out Federal taxes for that year, and so the individual might not benefit from that $7500 credit.

The original owner took the risk of buying an EV, hence was rewarded with an incentive. The next owner in the chain is buying a used vehicle, taking the risks associated with that along with the benefits -- a vast price reduction. I just don't see the case for passing the tax credits along in a private sale, nor do I see the case for Tesla using that information in their algorithm.

4. If we're trying to build a reasonable way to value resales that isn't strictly dependent on, "I found a sucker to buy my car, so now that's what the market will bear", then I think that certain aftermarket additions should be taken into account, just like the overall vehicle condition. The primary ones I believe I can justify are:
+ paint protection film (wow, have I seen the benefit for myself)
+ window and sunroof tinting (see many threads on the benefits, especially in the third row)
As much as I enjoy my OptiCoat, lighted door sills, and whatnot, I have no idea how to value them on resale and probably wouldn't even try.

5. Last, although Tesla has built this $1/mile + $1k/month depreciation model, I think the $1k/month component doesn't scale. Cars don't depreciate linearly. After some number of months, I think the $1k/month component is no longer valid.

As for the $1/mile component, while I can wrap my head around the concept of taking mileage into account as a major indicator of wear and tear and hence depreciation, I don't understand how we've arrived at that particular value. Much smaller numbers are used for corporate reimbursements, taxes, etc. So why should we buy into $1/mile?

Thanks!

Alan
 
#75
It has always seemed to me that Tesla is doing some creative accounting/marketing on the $7500 tax credit (whether you could in fact take advantage of it or not).

The web site pulls it out immeditely on its pricing model (or inflates the price of the car depending on how you look at it) for purchase or finance.

Then again pulls it out of the trade-in price again at full un-depreciated value. This makes me think the price uplift is just more Tesla margin, gross = net. We presume it will be passed down the line in the effective re-retailed pricing, but I doubt it.

I can only wonder how it figures into the by-back guaranteed resale accounting vs. other luxury marques.
 
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#76
The fed tax incentive comes into play when you're trying to look at it from the 2nd buyer's perspective. I can buy a new car for x, vs the used car for y. x=Selling price-$7500. The seller needs to price the vehicle at a point that is attractive to the buyer. y has to be less than x (y<x), otherwise the buyer might as well go buy a new car. So that's the starting point. If the incentive no longer exists, then it's a different ball game.
 
#77
andrewket said:
The fed tax incentive comes into play when you're trying to look at it from the 2nd buyer's perspective. I can buy a new car for x, vs the used car for y. x=Selling price-$7500. The seller needs to price the vehicle at a point that is attractive to the buyer. y has to be less than x (y<x), otherwise the buyer might as well go buy a new car. So that's the starting point. If the incentive no longer exists, then it's a different ball game.
Click to expand...

So you really didn't get a tax incentive/credit for being green, you just overpaid for the car. :) (seriously not trying to make a rukus).

I also note that the $7500 never seems to depreciate either.
 
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#79
If you do not mind, Please post your trade in offer from Tesla so we can comp...

redi said:
So you really didn't get a tax incentive/credit for being green, you just overpaid for the car. :) (seriously not trying to make a rukus).

I also note that the $7500 never seems to depreciate either.
Click to expand...

That's a great point. The 7500 should depreciate. Not by us, but by the government. Those that purchase early should receive more incentive.
 
#80
My guess is that Tesla will make *lower* than normal offers for trade-ins until they are ready to roll out their CPO program.

Reason being that until they have the CPO program, dealing with used inventory is a hassle. Their systems and procedures aren't set up for that. They're set up to sell new cars.

Once CPO is set, every used car is revenue generator and the hassle factor is gone.

I'm sure I'll be trading up to a D. But I think I can wait a year or so until the CPO program comes online.
 
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