Is now the worst time to accept delivery of a Model Y?

[Jman841]

Just to put everything in perspective, My Model Y AWD (Long story, but it's the 4680 structural pack build) is scheduled to be delivered in November. Looking at everything going on at the moment, it seems like this could be the worst time to accept delivery of a Model Y for the following reasons:

1. Prices are at all time high and both new and used car demand is weakening very quickly. The idea that Tesla prices only go up is false and most likely will be coming down soon. Used Tesla prices are trending down quickly as we speak.
2. Removal of ultrasonic sensors with a yet to be proven alternative.
3. HW3 is over 3 years old with HW4 likely coming soon. Given that Tesla is betting everything on Camera + AI, HW4 will most likely be a significantly improvement over HW3 over the next 5-10 years if holding the car for a while.
4. Customer Service nightmares seem to become commonplace.
5. Quality control on the Model Y is still hit or miss, I was hopeful that Austin produced model Y's would be much better, but there seems to be a ton of reports of Quality issues out of Austin as well.

For an over $60k car, this seems like it's going to be a major regret at the moment. We do need a second car, but I'm considering something else for now and see what the EV Market is like in a year or so. Just would love other peoples thoughts who own the car and I realize this is going to be a biased audience towards Tesla.

 

[FatherTo1]

The Model Y today is $15K more than when we ordered in May 2021 but another Tesla would be at the top of our list if we were in the market. A PoleStar 2, EV6, Mach E/Ford Lightning, or long-wait Rivian are also contenders but the Supercharger network is still a huge advantage on long trips over Electrify America.

For OP, you can't keep worrying about the next big thing. If you can afford it and the Y was your top choice then get it and enjoy it. I am glad we experienced our Model S and now Model Y instead of waiting for more advanced features. Our 2021 Y LR still feels fresh and new without the latest Ryzen chip and other upgrades. We save over $400 net a month on gas and over $500 when gas in California was/is $6.00-6.50 a gallon. It sucks that the Y is so much more expensive today but so is the competition. Estimate your gas savings and see if it helps your decision. If you still feel uneasy or uncomfortable then wait it out but, like the stock market, it's tough to time things perfectly. Instead, base it on your needs today. If you don't need it right away then be patient, otherwise take action based on your current needs.

For what it's worth, OP already sounds like talking themself out of buying and nothing wrong with that. If you're already feeling buyer's remorse before you even buy something then maybe it's not the right time for you. The Y is a blast and I don't miss my S at all, but you're not going to enjoy the car if your focus is on whether it's the "right time". In my mind, I should have bought a Tesla sooner not later. Good luck and all the best with your decision.

For arguments sake, let's say prices will drop soon on new Teslas (despite the backlog and insane demand), how much does OP expect a drop in the next year? A few thousand? Maybe 10% even? Even at that much I would've saved that 10% ($6k) in gas alone so it still benefits me to buy now and be happier driving an EV for the next year.

 

[Jman841]

The Model Y today is $15K more than when we ordered in May 2021 but another Tesla would be at the top of our list if we were in the market. A PoleStar 2, EV6, Mach E/Ford Lightning, or long-wait Rivian are also contenders but the Supercharger network is still a huge advantage on long trips over Electrify America.

For OP, you can't keep worrying about the next big thing. If you can afford it and the Y was your top choice then get it and enjoy it. I am glad we experienced our Model S and now Model Y instead of waiting for more advanced features. Our 2021 Y LR still feels fresh and new without the latest Ryzen chip and other upgrades. We save over $400 net a month on gas and over $500 when gas in California was/is $6.00-6.50 a gallon. It sucks that the Y is so much more expensive today but so is the competition. Estimate your gas savings and see if it helps your decision. If you still feel uneasy or uncomfortable then wait it out but, like the stock market, it's tough to time things perfectly. Instead, base it on your needs today. If you don't need it right away then be patient, otherwise take action based on your current needs.

For what it's worth, OP already sounds like talking themself out of buying and nothing wrong with that. If you're already feeling buyer's remorse before you even buy something then maybe it's not the right time for you. The Y is a blast and I don't miss my S at all, but you're not going to enjoy the car if your focus is on whether it's the "right time". In my mind, I should have bought a Tesla sooner not later. Good luck and all the best with your decision.

For arguments sake, let's say prices will drop soon on new Teslas (despite the backlog and insane demand), how much does OP expect a drop in the next year? A few thousand? Maybe 10% even? Even at that much I would've saved that 10% ($6k) in gas alone so it still benefits me to buy now and be happier driving an EV for the next year.

These are fair points. We do need a 2nd vehicle and there really is not many options that we're interested in right now. I've test drove most of the EV competition and was not super impressed compared with the Tesla.

I guess it's just a mental game, I've lost multiples of the cost of this vehicle in the equity markets and that does not bother me at all, but paying $10-15k more than it was a year ago for some reason does. I'm most likely going to go through with it and will love it. I do think demand is dropping off as we speak though, even for Tesla's. Just looking at the number of Model 3 LR that are sitting in existing inventory in my area for the last week and have not sold is a pretty good indicator. A few months ago, everyone one of those would have been sold in a heartbeat. These are brand new base trim levels without FSD Model 3 LR.

Either way, I've wanted one for a long time and it would be silly to turn it down over a potential couple thousand dollars, especially since there's a good chance prices don't change much for the Model Y if the tax credit goes into effect in Jan.

 

[origingalatic]

I guess it's just a mental game, I've lost multiples of the cost of this vehicle in the equity markets and that does not bother me at all, but paying $10-15k more than it was a year ago for some reason does. I'm most likely going to go through with it and will love it. I do think demand is dropping off as we speak though, even for Tesla's. Just looking at the number of Model 3 LR that are sitting in existing inventory in my area for the last week and have not sold is a pretty good indicator. A few months ago, everyone one of those would have been sold in a heartbeat. These are brand new base trim levels without FSD Model 3 LR.

Either way, I've wanted one for a long time and it would be silly to turn it down over a potential couple thousand dollars, especially since there's a good chance prices don't change much for the Model Y if the tax credit goes into effect in Jan.

This is very strange mentality indeed but I think most of us with investments and disposable income are in the same boat. I think I know how you are feeling. Spending 60K in this economy is not an easy decision. Last time I did that was in 2009 and I wished I had just use that money (I paid cash) to buy anything in the market, I would have flip my cash 5x over easily. And here we are again. You seem like a pragmatic guy and the things you are worrying about are probably excuses to talk yourself out of it. They are legit concerns but for Tesla, they will always be there at least for the short term.

I think you have earned this. You need to take a moment and enjoy the fruits of your hard work.

 

[Jman841]

This is very strange mentality indeed but I think most of us with investments and disposable income are in the same boat. I think I know how you are feeling. Spending 60K in this economy is not an easy decision. Last time I did that was in 2009 and I wished I had just use that money (I paid cash) to buy anything in the market, I would have flip my cash 5x over easily. And here we are again. You seem like a pragmatic guy and the things you are worrying about are probably excuses to talk yourself out of it. They are legit concerns but for Tesla, they will always be there at least for the short term.

I think you have earned this. You need to take a moment and enjoy the fruits of your hard work.

Thank you, I think you are correct. I will be buying it with cash as I don't like to hold debt on vehicles and you're exactly right, It's the thought not only of the current pricing but also the opportunity cost. With that said, I am fortunate that my business is still doing well even if our growth is slowing a bit compared to the last couple years and the purchase itself won't affect anything with my daily life or family. I appreciate the perspective and thoughts, glad I'm not the only one haha.

 

[KzooMYP]

I am someone who would be very critical of every defect. This is the most expensive automobile I've ever owned. It's price makes it compete against some very respectable cars. I don't give Tesla any slack.

I love my Tesla. Build quality was fantastic - better than the Hummer EV at the auto show. Customer service has been great.

Tesla is the best game in town. If you are comparing Tesla to other auto companies; I love what Ford, Rivian and others are doing. But they have even more teething pains right now. With Tesla, there might be some risks you have to manage; but those risks are less than the risks other brands have.

Some would say with the federal tax credit back, now is the best time to buy a Tesla.

 

[ElectricIAC]

I am someone who would be very critical of every defect. This is the most expensive automobile I've ever owned. It's price makes it compete against some very respectable cars. I don't give Tesla any slack.

I love my Tesla. Build quality was fantastic - better than the Hummer EV at the auto show. Customer service has been great.

Tesla is the best game in town. If you are comparing Tesla to other auto companies; I love what Ford, Rivian and others are doing. But they have even more teething pains right now. With Tesla, there might be some risks you have to manage; but those risks are less than the risks other brands have.

Some would say with the federal tax credit back, now is the best time to buy a Tesla.

2022 doesn’t qualify.

 

[Jman841]

2022 doesn’t qualify.

I won't qualify in 2023 either so the tax credit isn't a factor for me.

 

[Hiline]

I'm going to venture that most of those who can afford a Tesla won't see a 10k difference in price as a dealbreaker. If you want a Tesla, get it. In the long run, your experience and quality of life matter a lot more than a little additional saving.

 

[ElectricIAC]

I'm going to venture that most of those who can afford a Tesla won't see a 10k difference in price as a dealbreaker. If you want a Tesla, get it. In the long run, your experience and quality of life matter a lot more than a little additional saving.

It really depends on how you see value.

I wouldn’t buy a 3 or Y at current prices but roll the clock back to January 2021 and we’re cookin’.

 

[Hiline]

It really depends on how you see value.

I wouldn’t buy a 3 or Y at current prices but roll the clock back to January 2021 and we’re cookin’.

What would you buy now then?

 

[ElectricIAC]

What would you buy now then?

Well I’m not really looking at anything right now with intent to buy but an iX at employee pricing presents a better value proposition to me than any Tesla in the lineup at the moment.

 

[Happy Hippo]

Well I’m not really looking at anything right now with intent to buy but an iX at employee pricing presents a better value proposition to me than any Tesla in the lineup at the moment.

how much at employee pricing for the iX? I would consider the IX but I wish it had more range!

 

[ElectricIAC]

how much at employee pricing for the iX? I would consider the IX but I wish it had more range!

Have you seen what their real life highway range is? Over 300mi.

Employee pricing is typically in the 13-15% off range depending on the car.

Unfortunately iX doesn’t have an extra allowance so it’d be anywhere between Invoice and what your selling store is willing to give up in holdback.

 

[nate704]

BMW IX has about 111.5 kWh battery size vs. Model Y has 75-77ish kWh battery, and about 800 lbs heavier than Model Y.

BMW iX xDrive50

All details and specs of the BMW iX xDrive50 (2021). Compare price, lease, real-world range and consumption of every electric vehicle.

ev-database.org

 

[ElectricIAC]

BMW IX has about 111.5 kWh battery size vs. Model Y has 75-77ish kWh battery.

BMW iX xDrive50

All details and specs of the BMW iX xDrive50 (2021). Compare price, lease, real-world range and consumption of every electric vehicle.

ev-database.org

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I wasn’t comparing it with the Model Y, more so comparing it with anything in the Tesla lineup as a whole.

 

[FatherTo1]

I wasn’t comparing it with the Model Y, more so comparing it with anything in the Tesla lineup as a whole.

I know not everyone loves the Y styling but I can't get past the enormous beaver-teeth grille of the new Bimmers. The iX rear quarters aren't much better either.

Definitely more to a car than just looks but yeesh, the iX appearance already gives me pause. Not one of BMW's better exterior designs.

On a daily basis my wife and I are relieved we bought the Y in May 2021. I agree the Y isn't what I'd consider a value today but I don't know what else I'd seriously buy instead.

 

[ElectricIAC]

I know not everyone loves the Y styling but I can't get past the enormous beaver-teeth grille of the new Bimmers. The iX rear quarters aren't much better either.

Definitely more to a car than just looks but yeesh, the appearance already gives me pause. Not one of BMW's better exterior designs.

Yeah, you got me there but I’m thinking function over form. If it was up to me, I’d have put the guts of it into an X5 or X7 body instead.

 

[pepperoni]

Agree. The average new car price is 50k and you do not get half of what a Tesla offers its owners.

I read this and thought there is no way the average car price is $50K. True statement, to my surprise! (Closer to $48K, according to Kelley Blue Book.) Most of us don’t buy Tesla to save money, but this shows Tesla is much more competitive than I first thought. Honestly, given the sticker price of my Y was $54K, I think my net price was less than average after factoring in sky high gas prices!

 

[pepperoni]

… Last time I did that was in 2009 and I wished I had just use that money (I paid cash) to buy anything in the market, I would have flip my cash 5x over easily. And here we are again. …

Great point! You’re probably not going to make that sort of money in the market today. If you have the cash and need the car, why not get that Y?

I will tell you that I definitely had second thoughts before I purchased back in March. Seven months later, zero regrets! The Y provides more enjoyment per mile than the law should allow. And I don’t miss the gas station one bit!

 

[voxel]

Well I’m not really looking at anything right now with intent to buy but an iX at employee pricing presents a better value proposition to me than any Tesla in the lineup at the moment.

The control scheme of the iX scares me away from it. If they simply used the normal wheel and console controls from the i4 I’d be buying one.

It’s also not very big. I was expecting it to be some three row SUV monster but the cargo space is only slightly larger than your typical compact SUV. Given the performance it is a direct competitor to the X but I think the Cadillac Lyriq and EV9 will outsell it 5:1.