Just announced. 500k cars by 2018 instead of 2020

[Booga]

What can you do -- if your boss tells you that you have to bash Tesla, you have to bash Tesla; if you are convinced the world is cooling and EVs are golf carts, you keep shorting TSLA.

If someone were to short Tesla, it won't be on the premise of global warming or global cooling, or the speed of Tesla. I don't think anyone wants to bet against Elon's ability to improve technology. The bet would be on valuation.

 

[Chopr147]

True, I don't believe Tesla will meet the 500,000 in 2018 but half of that would be a a big boost to the company...........and I get my M3
I read this story about how GM is the mass market electric car winner by "Wired":
"But now it looks pretty clear who the winner will be. And it ain’t Tesla."
I did not read anything in this story about how the GM Bolt is a go-cart and Tesla's M3 is a real bona-fide car. If the choice is a Chevy Bolt for $37,500 base or M3 $35,000 what person in their right mind would choose the Bolt?!? Or even the BMW i3 for that matter. It's like a choice between a bicycle and a Harley Electra Glide. Don't get me wrong, I would like to see the Bolt be successful but I personally would never buy one. I will see some Bolts on the road soon and will be thinking about how my M3 will be blowing those doors off real soon

How GM Beat Tesla to the First True Mass-Market Electric Car

 

[Dan Detweiler]

If you do, PM me - I wouldn't mind having a TR6 in the garage. I miss having a convertible (had a 72 Spit 10 years ago)

Sent you a conversation

 

[tga]

Ask the wrong question and you get the wrong answer. I think perhaps there are unreasonable expectations of people to meet this rather crazy deadline, and this has everything to do with the Model 3 and nothing to do with the Model X. Hope I'm wrong though because (like what seems like half the world) I am waiting eagerly and expectantly for my own Model 3. But then I just met somebody who still thinks electric vehicles aren't there yet and are for "the future."

I have a feeling Elon was asking more than they were willing to give to complete the project in the new timeframe. People working at Tesla are about to have their lives upended and put 100% on hold if they are going to meet this deadline.

Or that they did not believe the new schedule was remotely achievable. In those positions, getting your team to deliver on time/budget is critical for career success/promotions/etc. I've seen people bail on this type of position early in a project because they had no faith in the schedule and didn't want to set themselves up for failure.

That's too bad. I don't want my Model 3 breaking up people's families and ruining lives. Demanding the very best is great (what are you at work for, anyways?), but demanding the life of your employee is going a bit far and will ultimately reduce the quality of everything: quality of life, build quality, vehicle longevity, etc.

Meh. Not to sound like a d*ck, but they knew what they were getting into at a (company run like a) tech startup, especially one lead by as demanding a leader as Elon. I've seen a few marriages blow up in my startup career (but more emerge stronger as a result).

 

[dauger]

This even more aggressive move is amazing, even to those of us who believe in Tesla's mission.

You do not want to play Poker against Elon Musk because he's got the huevos. He was already betting the company on an ambitious growth plan by 2020, so now they're going to grow faster, hit the target in half the time? It's like there's already several billion dollars in the pot, and today he says "I raise a few more billion."

The short-sellers will love to claim Elon is bluffing. I say, no, he's not bluffing; don't bet against Tesla Motors. But the short's won't listen.

Isn't it exciting to watch the highest-stakes Poker game around?

 

[182RG]

And I do not care it they don't meet this target, it tells us that they really is doing what they can to ramp up the production as fast as they can... (or faster )

The fan base isn't going to care (much). The current and future TSLA investors that are the source of the next round(s) of capital infusion are the ones who are going to care....a lot.

 

[Topher]

My read was 500k cars/year CAPACITY, not production. That is, by the end of 2018, they will be able to make that many, not that they did make that many. Good news either way.

Thank you kindly.

 

[182RG]

My read was 500k cars/year CAPACITY, not production.

From the Shareholder's Letter:

"Increasing production five fold over the next two years will be challenging and will likely require some additional capital, but this is our goal and we will be working hard to achieve it."

 

[lklundin]

I need some help. The shareholder letter said, "500,000 total unit build plan (combined for Model S, Model X, and Model 3) to 2018", which sounds like a cumulative number of cars built, not a 500k/yr rate of production. Most of the stories online say 500k/yr, as above, but I read the the quote differently.

Here's an article that interprets it the same as me: Tesla wants to build 500,000 cars two years sooner than planned. "500,000-cars-made milestone" is a total not a rate.

These are VERY different kinds of numbers!

With a longer quote it is clear that the shareholder's letter refers to the previously announced plan (i.e. 500k cars annually):
"we have decided to advance our 500,000 total unit build plan (combined for Model S,
Model X, and Model 3) to 2018, two years earlier than previously planned".

 

[Model 3]

The fan base isn't going to care (much). The current and future TSLA investors that are the source of the next round(s) of capital infusion are the ones who are going to care....a lot.

Maybe, but if they do produce 400k instead of 500k? Will they care that much? 400k in 2018 is still a though ramp up... Even 350k would in my mind be a great result here (but the investors may start to mumble...).

 

[ecarfan]

This certainly would make sense. I think this would really help them crank these out. I wouldn't be surprised if we only see 4 or 5 options total for "version 1" of the M3. Elon talked during the earnings call about how they maybe tried to add too much to version 1 of the X complicating production.
When I say 4 or 5 options that would probably exclude options that are purely software related such as autopilot because these don't require any tweaks to the production line.

Well, currently the S has a rather limited list of options compared to other auto manufacturers. Besides AP, higher capacity battery, Dual Motor, a Performance version, Ludicrous mode, multiple paint color,choices, wheel style choices and 2 wheel sizes, interior trim choices, headliner color choice, Panoramic Roof,and a leather seat upgrade (all of which will likely also be options on the Model 3, and some of those Tesla has already confirmed will be available in some form in the 3) there are only these options:

Premium Upgrades Package
Smart Air Suspension
Subzero Weather Package
Ultra High Fidelity Sound
High Amperage Charger Upgrade
Rear Facing Seats (which the 3 obviously will not have)

I expect the 3 will also have the first 5 options in that list. So the 3 will basically have the same options as the S. The only differences I foresee are somewhat fewer interior trim options, and we know the 3 will have a fixed glass roof option that the S does not have at this time.

The big Model 3 question to me is: will the "spaceship" style driver interface that Elon referred to in a tweet be an option on the 3 or standard? My guess is it will be an option, and around the time the 3 goes into production the S and X will also get it, either as standard or as an option. Because there is no way that Tesla will have a more exciting and useful driver interface on the 3 than on the S and X.

 

[182RG]

Maybe, but if they do produce 400k instead of 500k? Will they care that much? 400k in 2018 is still a though ramp up... Even 350k would in my mind be a great result here (but the investors may start to mumble...).

Depends. Are they still losing money at 350K units? Or 400K? It may be more than a rumble with the bar set this high, this fast.

The other thing that bothers me about TSLA earnings releases is the continued big focus on non-GAAP metrics. Ask Uncle Warren what he thinks of GAAP vs non-GAAP.

 

[ecarfan]

And by the way, Elon said yesterday in the Q1 Earnings Call that the Model 3 prototypes shown and driven at the reveal contained the final drivetrain design. To me that means the battery pack, inverter, transmission and motor. And Tesla has said the Model 3 motor is an all new design. He said Tesla is very close to finalizing all aspects of the 3 design. So that goes a long way towards understanding how Tesla could build so many cars by the end of 2018 m

 

[tomas]

Depends. Are they still losing money at 350K units? Or 400K? It may be more than a rumble with the bar set this high, this fast.

The other thing that bothers me about TSLA earnings releases is the continued big focus on non-GAAP metrics. Ask Uncle Warren what he thinks of GAAP vs non-GAAP.

Do you know how long Google lost money setting themselves up to dominate web advertising? A long, long time. If tesla achieves end game objective, they will be abundantly profitable. Huge capital investment and operating costs along the way. Big goal, big bet, big payoff, long term. Just a question of whether enough investors will continue to provide capital and whether tesla will keep advancing towards objective at a convincing pace.

FYI, in 2012 automobile article, highest production auto plant for 2011 was ford Kansas City at 460,000 units. I did not quickly find more current number. I'm sure someone will...

 

[Topher]

Because there is no way that Tesla will have a more exciting and useful driver interface on the 3 than on the S and X.

This keeps getting said about Tesla Cars, and I have to wonder how many more times it being shown wrong it will take for it to stop?

The secret master plan requires the S and X to enable and finance the ≡. That job is mostly done. Of course, they want to keep making them, but if they don't sell, it won't break the plan.

If they figure out how to make a HUD or other awesome interface, it will just appear on all models. Tesla doesn't wait for some new model year, they just fix things.

You can bet the engineers working on the ≡ were told, make it cheaper AND better than the S, 'show those guys how it is done'. Tesla is really their only competition.

Thank you kindly.

 

[tga]

This keeps getting said about Tesla Cars, and I have to wonder how many more times it being shown wrong it will take for it to stop?

The secret master plan requires the S and X to enable and finance the ≡. That job is mostly done. Of course, they want to keep making them, but if they don't sell, it won't break the plan.

If they figure out how to make a HUD or other awesome interface, it will just appear on all models. Tesla doesn't wait for some new model year, they just fix things.

You can bet the engineers working on the ≡ were told, make it cheaper AND better than the S, 'show those guys how it is done'. Tesla is really their only competition.

Thank you kindly.

Yes, but if a "more exciting and useful driver interface" is shown for the 3 at reveal #2, you can bet it will find its way into the S and X immediately, lest it "Osborne" them.

It's not an issue of "the 3 can't be better than the S"; it's that you don't want people to pass on buying an S now to wait for the cool tech to come in the 3.

 

[182RG]

Do you know how long Google lost money

Post IPO, Google has always been profitable as a company? Not sure where your info is coming from?

 

[ModelNforNerd]

This keeps getting said about Tesla Cars, and I have to wonder how many more times it being shown wrong it will take for it to stop?

The secret master plan requires the S and X to enable and finance the ≡. That job is mostly done. Of course, they want to keep making them, but if they don't sell, it won't break the plan.

If they figure out how to make a HUD or other awesome interface, it will just appear on all models. Tesla doesn't wait for some new model year, they just fix things.

You can bet the engineers working on the ≡ were told, make it cheaper AND better than the S, 'show those guys how it is done'. Tesla is really their only competition.

Thank you kindly.

X was not part of the original Master Plan.

Elon tacked that on because he felt there was a market/alternate revenue stream to be had by adding an SUV to the S platform.

He's admitted that it may have been too ambitious (FW Doors)...but in the end, it will all work out.

 

[Trips]

2018 Q1 - 50k delivered (West/Central existing Owners + West Preorders + Employees) Full $7,500 credit
Q2 - 75k delivered(East existing Owners + Central Preorders + West Post Orders) Full $7,500 credit
Q3 - 125k delivered(East Preorders + Central Post Orders + International) $3,750 credit
Q4 - 200k delivered (East Post Orders + New Orders) $3.750 credit
450k total delivered

All this fails to take the US vs the rest of the world into account.

I modified the original plan by moving the current owners up (7% of M3 orders are current owners ~28,000?)
I also started international deliveries in Q3 when the full credit was up.

I based all of this off of the following:
1 million goal for Fremont facility by 2020
500k capacity for current paint room (Will need 2nd paint by Q4 2018)
2,000 per week currently produced (I believe half are outside US)

I think they might hit the tax credit limit before the M3 but am not sure if S/X demand is there.

 

[LectrikPower]

X was not part of the original Master Plan.

Elon tacked that on because he felt there was a market/alternate revenue stream to be had by adding an SUV to the S platform.

He's admitted that it may have been too ambitious (FW Doors)...but in the end, it will all work out.

I was also thinking that battery production was not up to producing the M3 in large numbers yet so they did the X while the factory was getting built.