Just announced. 500k cars by 2018 instead of 2020

[Colsla]

The previous annual production target for 2020 was 500,000/year, so if they are moving it up 2 years, that's 500,000 in 2018.

The way it is worded and your following interpretation seems logical. It was apparently just obvious to those of us who have covered this stuff day in & day out for years what it actually meant.

Hope that helps.

I agree. Plus, 500k total units built by 2018 doesn't really make sense. Tesla already built 100k cars and they plan to make another 90k ish this only gives them 300k cars to build in the next 2 yes. Given the sales have been growing year after year 300k cars sold in 2017 and 2018 sounds too conservative. After all, Tesla has close to 400k orders on model 3 alone

 

[int32_t]

Yes, amazing plans. Is this any coincidence?

Two Tesla top manufacturing executives to leave following Model X production issues

Quote from Bloomberg cited in the article:

Tesla denied any connection between the departures and production problems with its SUV. “This is not about the Model X,” said a Tesla spokesperson.

Ask the wrong question and you get the wrong answer. I think perhaps there are unreasonable expectations of people to meet this rather crazy deadline, and this has everything to do with the Model 3 and nothing to do with the Model X. Hope I'm wrong though because (like what seems like half the world) I am waiting eagerly and expectantly for my own Model 3. But then I just met somebody who still thinks electric vehicles aren't there yet and are for "the future."

 

[Garlan Garner]

All I'm interested in is 1 specific car.

 

[CarlitoDoc]

You mean "THEY" aren't getting the Touareg?

Nope, I screwed up buying that car.....(she reminds me often), so I will have to wait till I sell it to get mine (maybe MS CPO?)

 

[ZachShahan]

I know we're getting the hardware. I was expecting (hoping) that the Model 3 would have a next-gen version of the autopilot hardware though as opposed to what is in the S & X now.

that's basically guaranteed.

 

[SureValla]

Yes, amazing plans. Is this any coincidence?

Two Tesla top manufacturing executives to leave following Model X production issues

Quote from Bloomberg cited in the article:



Ask the wrong question and you get the wrong answer. I think perhaps there are unreasonable expectations of people to meet this rather crazy deadline, and this has everything to do with the Model 3 and nothing to do with the Model X. Hope I'm wrong though because (like what seems like half the world) I am waiting eagerly and expectantly for my own Model 3. But then I just met somebody who still thinks electric vehicles aren't there yet and are for "the future."

I have a feeling Elon was asking more than they were willing to give to complete the project in the new timeframe. People working at Tesla are about to have their lives upended and put 100% on hold if they are going to meet this deadline.

 

[int32_t]

I have a feeling Elon was asking more than they were willing to give to complete the project in the new timeframe. People working at Tesla are about to have their lives upended and put 100% on hold if they are going to meet this deadline.

That's too bad. I don't want my Model 3 breaking up people's families and ruining lives. Demanding the very best is great (what are you at work for, anyways?), but demanding the life of your employee is going a bit far and will ultimately reduce the quality of everything: quality of life, build quality, vehicle longevity, etc.

 

[Piney999]

This is just amazing. Also means reveal 2 will be sooner as well!

 

[Mkorpal]

Crazy if they can pull it off. I got to start saving I guess.

 

[SageBrush]

Wasn't that from the Star Trek The Next Generation, "Relics"?

I canna get the quote quite right, let alone the episode ;-)

 

[plankeye]

Elon is targeting all of us getting our cars by the end of 2018. He said that anybody that hasn't already ordered should order now if they want their cars by the end of 2018.

 

[Ludus]

“Given our plans to advance our 500,000 total unit build plan, essentially doubling the prior growth plan, we are re-evaluating our level of capital expenditures, but expect it will be about 50% higher than our previous guidance of $1.5 billion for 2016. Naturally, this will impact our ability to be net cash flow positive for the year, but given the demand for Model 3, investing to meet that demand is the best long-term decision for Tesla.”

So capex about $750M higher for 2016, likely at least as much higher through 2018. This will apply to accelerating the Nevada Gigafactory buildout as well as new lines at Fremont.

 

[ggnykk]

That's just insane rate of ramp up. From 80k to 90k cars produced this year to 500k cars in 2018. That's a bit more than 5x increase in 2 years. I really hope that they can make it. But if anything goes wrong, don't be surprised that the whole supply chain crumble, at least temporarily.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Even getting to 500k vehicles in 2020 would be impressive. Getting there 2 years earlier seems impossible (without something else giving, like higher prices or a drop in quality).

 

[gregincal]

This is just amazing. Also means reveal 2 will be sooner as well!

Why? The release date of the Model 3 is still the same, just the ramp is faster. We have absolutely no idea when they are planning to do reveal 2 anyway. Could be next week, could be just before the car ships.

 

[Gilzo]

Even getting to 500k vehicles in 2020 would be impressive. Getting there 2 years earlier seems impossible (without something else giving, like higher prices or a drop in quality).

You have a point but they are making moves now which suggests the ramp up is well on the way.
1. 1 million sq/ft of new space
2. Massive job fair this weekend to hire hundreds...

Tesla adds an important 1 million sq-ft of space near the Fremont Factory

Tesla will be hosting a “massive” job fair to hire “hundreds” of new production workers this weekend

 

[ohmman]

Please queue reignition of Supercharger congestion and Service Center overload threads in 3.. 2.. 1..

 

[Justmurr]

Wonder if there could be a few less options as part of the new plan?.....in order to reduce variants?

 

[jsrawa]

This certainly would make sense. I think this would really help them crank these out. I wouldn't be surprised if we only see 4 or 5 options total for "version 1" of the M3. Elon talked during the earnings call about how they maybe tried to add too much to version 1 of the X complicating production.

When I say 4 or 5 options that would probably exclude options that are purely software related such as autopilot because these don't require any tweaks to the production line.

 

[McHoffa]

On the call, Musk has stated his goal is "at least 100,000 model 3's by late next year" (2017).

This is exciting news. My first order was in store at 10:30am. My second was that night about 15 minutes before the unveiling. That means I SHOULD be able to get my first order in 2017, and even if I get the call to order the second in 2017, I can ask for delivery in early 2018, which would mean we'd get the tax credit both years.