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Likelihood of a CHAdeMO adapter for the Model S

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This. The connector Tesla came up with is not that different from the extant Type 2 connector. Main difference is they're missing two power pins.
So why come up with it at all? Why not just use Type 2?

At any rate a CHAdeMO adapter would still be desired for the near term.
IMO CHAdeMO is required not desired... however, the fact that an adaptor cannot be used in Europe, and it's going to be tough to fit a 50kW+ adapter in the trunk, leads me to the conclusion that supporting the CHAdeMO connector on the car from day 1 would have been the sensible way forward.
 
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This. The connector Tesla came up with is actually not that different from the extant Type 2 connector. Main difference is they're sadly missing two power pins.
I should really send a couple of Type 2 connectors to people in the US so they can see what it actually is! They are however rather expensive....

At any rate a CHAdeMO adapter would still be desired for the near term.
Yes, 50kW is still better then 11kW or 22kW when doing a road trip.
 
Tesla's connector is basically, electrically, J1772 which has been made capable to handle 90 kW. J1772 is of course the standard in the US. It is also expected to be close, electrically, to the SAE DC combo, except of course in a much better package. European DC, in turn, will be electrically similar to SAE DC, and supporting Mennekes (which we discuss in other threads) does not help with CHAdeMO.

The CHAdeMO adapter (this thread's subject) is probably from a technical point of view more complex, but its likelihood at this point at least 90% in my opinion.
 
Just because CHAdeMO has a big lead at the moment doesn't mean that if SAE DC is ever finalized and supported by many more manufacturers in the US at least that it won't quickly take over. This could be another VHS vs. betamax type fight. I do hope they come out with the adapter though since that would benefit a lot of people, especially in the Northwest.
 
Just because CHAdeMO has a big lead at the moment doesn't mean that if SAE DC is ever finalized and supported by many more manufacturers in the US at least that it won't quickly take over. This could be another VHS vs. betamax type fight. I do hope they come out with the adapter though since that would benefit a lot of people, especially in the Northwest.
Given the low number of CHAdeMO chargers at the moment, that should be easy. But, only if someone in that camp is serious about EVs. QC needs a lot of dedicated time at city level to get done.
 
LEAF Number 1000 to Norwegian customer
...Infrastructure strategy
Ishavskraft has made a plan for upgrading all infrastructure for EVs to a harmonized standard of 400 volt TN system. 2/3 of the Norwegian grid is based on 230V IT system, similar to the Albanian grid and different from the rest of Europe...
...Oliver Paturet from Nissan Europe defined the Norwegian EV market at “The most important” for Nissan ... around 3% of the total car sale in Norway is EVs with Nissan Leaf as market leader...



Introducing Fast Chargers in Norway
...Installing a fast charger
To install a fast charger a high power connection line is required. Most chargers require a 400 V three-phase connection with a high current capacity (63 A or more). At most locations this means it is required to make a new connection to the local transformer station. These stations are dispersed in the power grid and can be found where high voltage power lines need to be transformed down to usable voltage levels in industrial, commercial and residential use. Typically, these stations in Norway provide 400 V three-phase and 230 V single-phase voltages to customers, though 400 V is more common in new installations. If there is not enough capacity at such a station, an additional investment (in the range of several hundred thousand NOK) in the transformer needs to be made to install a fast charger. Generally, this makes it infeasible to install a fast charger today. Further, some sort of concrete foundation needs to be made, and usually a shelter to protect the charger from snow, rain, and dirt is wanted. If customers are required to pay for charging, a payment solution can also amount to around NOK 50 000. All in all, this usually amounts to a total investment cost of NOK 400 000 to 600 000 (€ 50-75 000), even when no further power grid investments are necessary. With one charger per 200 vehicles, this would mean an investment cost of about NOK 3000 per vehicle...

saltony - Quick charging
...Note: Because of the 230V IT Nett in Norway its often needed a transformer in front of such an installation...
 
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The CHAdeMO design dates from the 90s. I've seen it on a 1999 Rav4 EV. Back then I am told they used RS-422 instead of CAN for the comms, but it's the same physical design.

Why didn't they decide to modernize the plug similar to what Tesla did with the design (I mean purely from an aesthetics standpoint)? If Tesla had simply made their plug slightly bigger and added the 2 pins talked about, maybe they could have had the best of both worlds.
 
IMO thats untrue in respect to CHAdeMO which was being publicly deployed in 2007.

IMO Tesla could have easily adapted the IEC Type 2 ("mennekes") connector to support 100kW DC while maintaining backward compatibility with all of the AC standards that exist today. The "mennekes" connector has been around for many years.

I think what TEG says is correct. Tesla probably wanted to use J1772 DC, but it was too slow for the Model S release. The foot-dragging in the IEC is even worse than SAE (the IEC has to deal with bickering between countries like the whole incident with France/Italy's design vs Germany's Mennekes design), so IEC Type 2 probably wasn't a good match either.

Plus, given a bulk of initial Model S sales will be in the US, designing something closer to J1772 probably is the most cost effective route (won't be left with extra pins there are unused in the US), although it is unfortunate that it means no 3-phase support with the current connector. The European Model S probably will have a different connector (same way the "Combo" plug is specified).

Anyways, the reason why Tesla didn't choose CHAdeMO is definitely not because Tesla's design was first. It's a bunch of other reasons (probably the same reasons why non-Japanese automakers have avoided CHAdeMO and have only expressed interest in it if the charging network was already established).
 
I do not believe that is true. It is July 4th 2012 and there are only 3 ChaDeMo charges west of Dallas Texas. Only one in California!!
I think it will be more like 2020 before there are anywhere near 1500 Quick Chargers in the USA. Nissan is full of it:biggrin:

At the DFW dog and pony show, three years ago now, Nissan said there would be 35 eVgo charging stations in the DFW area by September (of that year). There are now seven. Based on that there will be 300 by 2015.