MASTER THREAD: FSD Subscription Available 16 Jul 2021

[Wigan]

But it can also turn some $10ks into only a few $100s if buyers that would've otherwise spent $10k upfront (if a subscription option didn’t exist) may now only subscribe a couple of months a year or a few months and then quit. It all depends on how much the subscriptions “stick.”

But Tesla can’t change a deal retroactively.

But they haven't. The subscription is a new offer, there's nothing retroactive about it. The old offer, pay for full FSD ownership and they'll install the hardware, is still alive and well.

 

[2101Guy]

This is EXACTLY what I was hoping for!

The price is reasonable for when I am going to be doing a long highway vacation trip, so Tesla gains a Beta tester (their goal) and I don't have to pay $10,000 to be a beta tester! I will be subscribing next month before I make the drive down to Florida, up to North Carolina, and then back west to Arkansas.

Keith

My opinion? For long highway trips? Minimal value of FSD over free AP.
this coming from someone who has had both..

 

[astrobill]

I have been wondering this too. Can you provide some details as to how AP is inferior?

I can only think of the fact there is no LED in the side mirrors for blind spot detection.

Hi sgalla:

To answer your question, here are a few ways in which Tesla's baseline "Autopilot" functions -- in a car without "FSD" -- are far inferior to those of other cars.

- The absence of blind spot detection lights that you point out is one, right off the bat. In the Tesla, if you have a blind spot because the mirrors aren't quite adjusted right or something, you have to cross-check the 'visualization' display and the mirrors, taking your eyes of the mirrors themselves. And the warnings if you're about to turn into a lane with someone in your blind spot are inconsistent and unreliable. Sometimes it'll display the potential hazard vehicle in red, sometimes...not so much. Sometimes you'll get an audible, sometimes...nah. In contrast, the Volvo XC40 all-electric has nice, standard blind spot indicators in the side mirrors. Not to mention that the Tesla 3/Y side mirrors are stubbier with a smaller field of view than wider ones common in competitor's vehicles.

- Tesla's "Autopilot" lane-keeping assistance turns off after any lane change, forcing you to re-engage it manually EVERY time. It's a major hassle and can lead to driver confusion, especially on long drives when one is used to it being on, makes a lane change, and then....forgets to reengage it or just doesn't want the extra hassle step of having to turn it back on after every lane change. My family's all-electric Volvo XC40 Recharge doesn't do that. In fact, even the Ford Fusion I rented for a couple of months turns off lane-keeping assistance only *temporarily* while the driver is signaling and in the middle of making the actual lane change. Then it comes back on automatically....unless you turn it off manually. That's a much better way to handle things, and I think it's even mandated in some countries. If you have lane-keeping assistance, let the user leave it engaged until they want it off for good. The Ford even lets you select different levels of lane-keeping "force". Not so with Telsa. It's all or nothing.

- My Model Y sometimes says it's applying corrective steering due to even slight deviations within my lane, without even touching the lane lines, which causes the ear-splitting audible warning and scares the crap out of everyone in the vehicle. Moreover, sometimes it says it's doing corrective steering when in fact there's NO perceptible corrective steering applied at all. The Volvo and Ford never do either of these things.

- My Model Y often does NOT apply corrective steering during a lane drift when it definitely IS called for. The Volvo and Ford never do this.

- My Model Y, when on Autopilot, will see a line of orange barrel cones or triangle cones properly, but doesn't recognize the road work crews are using them to force lane merges in construction zones. It'll steer you right into the cones. It's absolutely ridiculous.

- The emergency braking...doesn't. There are times when the Model Y would have rear-ended someone at low speeds approaching stoplights, without the warning you're supposed to get. It's just unreliable and inconsistent.

- "Phantom braking" due to radar returns from overpasses is *far* more frequent in the Tesla 3/Y than other vehicles. In fact, I've never experienced it in the Volvo or Ford, both of which have radar. In contrast, My Model Y has scared the crap out of us more than once at highway speeds with sudden braking for absolutely no reason. Moreover, sometimes it's just due to a slight dip or rise in the road messing with the radar returns...because Tesla still hasn't learned to properly process automative radar signals as well as more experienced manufacturers.

- Cross-traffic warnings are hit or miss. I've been in supermarket parking lots with the MY in reverse and all the cameras up on the display, when cars and pedestrians are either coming up or are behind the vehicle. No warning....nothing. In contrast, I found the Ford Fusion cross-traffic warning to be enormously reliable and even with cars coming up that are far away. I no longer assume the Tesla will do ANY cross-traffic warnings. It's terrible.

Overall, I actually find the Model Y more stressful and anxiety-inducing to drive than the Volvo XC40 All-Electric Recharge for these reasons. And even the Ford Fusion seemed far more finely-tuned to me. The Volvo driver assistance features are smooth and reliable...the ones in the Tesla actually make the car stressful to drive.

 

[Zacster]

My opinion? For long highway trips? Minimal value of FSD over free AP.
this coming from someone who has had both..

That's what I think too. If I'm on the interstate for 3-4 hour stretches without stopping, what do I really gain? I just did a cross country trip in my daughter's Camry and I wouldn't think anything beyond CC and maybe autosteer would help. The roads are empty in Minnesota and South Dakota and everybody is doing 80 (the speed limit in SD), and anywhere there is traffic I don't trust any of it enough (see my post on the prior page.)

And to Astrobill's post above that came at the same time I posted this, that is exactly why I don't trust AP.

I didn't buy the M3 for these things though. I bought it because it is electric and fast. In NYC you don't need any of these AP things because you'd kill someone just trying them out.

 

[Matias]

sure they can; just edit the webpage and there, history has been modified.

happens regularly, in fact, around here.

 

[gearchruncher]

Tesla is charging owners $1,500 for hardware they already paid for

This weekend, Tesla started offering their long-awaited Full Self-Driving subscription package for $199/month. Along with the package, Tesla is offering...

electrek.co

 

[CapeOne]

Since the take rate on EAP was much higher (since that's where most of the features were at the time) the trade ins were far more likely to have that, thus they'd only have been "adding" FSD to it, which was 3k. In either case though the original claim that Tesla was 'adding' 10k to the price of all their used cars is not accurate.

All of this can depend on how the particular car had been equipped when Tesla received it in trade (i.e., AP only, EAP, EAP+FSD) and in that sense, I agree that saying Tesla was adding $10k to the price of all their used cars is inaccurate. However, Tesla could've have instead stripped out the AP/EAP/FSD and offered the cars for less (not necessarily a full $10k less but less) and given customers the option to add it/them back.

My point was simply that saying FSD used to only be $3k can be misleading as some might conclude that the price has more than tripled ($3k to $10k) or that you used to be able to get FSD alone (without also requiring EAP) for $3k. Neither of which is the case.

 

[CapeOne]

But they haven't. The subscription is a new offer, there's nothing retroactive about it. The old offer, pay for full FSD ownership and they'll install the hardware, is still alive and well.

Both offers are available but some types of customers who would have sprung for the $10k upfront (if the subscription option wasn't available) may now instead chose the $199/month option and generate much less revenue (depending on how many months they subscribe) for Tesla versus what a $10k purchase would’ve been. It's the potential "opportunity cost" of offering the subscription option.

 

[gearchruncher]

Surely you folks realized that the moment HW3 was introduced around April 2019.

Any other automaker in the world would tell you to pound sand and buy a new car if you wanted the latest features.

And on Autonomy Day in April 2019 Tesla said HW3 will be required for FSD.

Anyone actually affected by this knew their cars would need an upgrade for the last 2 years.

NOBODY is arguing that they were unaware an upgrade was needed. The issue is that Tesla is charging for something we already paid for. "All cars include the HW needed for FSD capability." Something that they said on the day the car was purchased.

This incorrect statement was no harm/no foul if you didn't attempt to get FSD capability on the car. However, if you did attempt to get it, it's suddenly an issue. Tesla knows this, and that's why it was a free upgrade when you bought FSD.

The thing is, it's just as much of an issue if you go to subscribe. Tesla NEVER said your car has the HW for an FSD purchase. It has the HW for FSD CAPABILITY. As you say, that has been clearly untrue since 2019, everyone knows it. Tesla never said how you buy FSD was part of the deal in 2016- it's about capability not purchase method.

Everyone agrees that a HW2/HW2.5 does NOT have the HW needed for FSD, right?

Then it's over. Tesla's statement is untrue. They cannot go back in time and claim in 2017 they meant "for FSD acquired via specific financial means."

There was no "deal" regarding eligibility for a subscription service in April 2019.

If you are referencing something in 2019 for cars sold in 2016-2018, you've already lost the point. In 2016-2018, there was no "deal" or description on how FSD was sold. Just that the car had the capability. Which it doesn't.

Where on that page does it mention eligibility for a new subscription product that wouldn't exist until almost 5 years after that post?

Where did it mention that the FSD they meant was only the one being sold on the day the car was sold?

But they haven't. The subscription is a new offer, there's nothing retroactive about it. The old offer, pay for full FSD ownership and they'll install the hardware, is still alive and well.

FSD has changed pricing over the years, features, can be bought in the app with 2 (originally 1!) click, etc. But none of this matters because there was never part of the original offer tied to how you get the software, only that the car is capable of running it.

 

[gearchruncher]

Tesla is additionally really screwing up here because they are trying to profit on the upgrade, not make it cost neutral.

There is no way a HW3 computer costs them $1,500- they make 500k of these a year. A teardown estimate puts it at $190. And before you scream "labor costs"- users have reported Tesla "Mine was done by mobile in my driveway. Took less than 1 hour." and "Mine was done by mobile service. Took a little longer, around 2 hrs, but the main guy was training a new guy."

The fair, neutral price here is probably $400. The fact that Tesla wants $1,500 means they want to profit off their mistake, which makes this behavior particularly egregious, slimy, and unacceptable.

The MCU2 replacement is the same price- $1,500, and includes TWO new LCD screens, and a whole computer with cell modems, GPS, audio amplifiers, etc. And that's an upgrade that they never promised anything around. Guess what they charge there for HW3? $500. Why is HW3 $1500 when you buy it another way and labor is only one hour?

 

[Wigan]

At this point I don't fully trust the basic AP in my 2021 M3. I won't go anywhere near the FSD features that are currently available, and not at $199/mo. I've had at least 3 phantom slow downs at highway speed, have it shut off from a traffic cone outside of the lane that was a little close. I only use it now in stop and go traffic where I'm under 15mph anyway, and when I'm on an open empty interstate. In any kind of traffic, even light traffic on the NYS Thruway, I stopped trusting it. As for auto-park, I'm skeptical that it would even be useful in Brooklyn where most parking spots have maybe 6 inches leeway. I can whip a car into those with ease, even my old minivan. I saw a Tesla try to get in and it couldn't do it. I also tried perpendicular parking on my test drive, and while it did it just fine, it would have taken me a fraction of the time. I'd have just pulled straight in.

Just about the only feature that I'd actually use is the green light bong, and only if it were fast enough to avoid the guy behind me honking within .25 seconds of it turning green. I was disappointed to find that was only a FSD feature even though I could see it on screen with visualization.

Both offers are available but some types of customers who would have sprung for the $10k upfront (if the subscription option wasn't available) may now instead chose the $199/month option and generate much less revenue (depending on how many months they subscribe) for Tesla versus what a $10k purchase would’ve been. It's the potential "opportunity cost" of offering the subscription option.

Sure, it'll be a tradeoff. I tend to think there won't be many people who would have spent $10K for FSD who wouldn't subscribe at all, and I think the take rate for the subscription will be orders of magnitude higher than what it is for FSD. Let's say the 'average' subscriber will buy two months a year for six years; they'll generate $2,400 for Tesla vs the $10K folks. So the question is, would the take rate for subscriptions essentially be four times that of the $10K upfront rate?

Who knows, my numbers are all made up anyhow. But I'm guessing it would be well in excess of that. Remember, the 'rented' FSD will get better and better over time, and it may be that the person who starts out only renting it for one month a year is up to 6 months or even more as they get to the end of their use of the car. Because at that point they'd say 'I'm not spending $10K now on a car I'm only going to keep a few more years' but in the meantime they love it and just rent it more and more.

 

[PRLM3]

Supposedly this just happened? How can it be available via subscription if it's not widely available / released already -- I've prepaid for it; I can't get it but someone can subscribe and get it? What's up on this?

 

[metrickid]

I think you need to read up on what the subscription is... It is not the beta, it is just the same thing you paid for.

 

[EVNow]

By the time regulation even allows that level of self driving, many things will have affected the price.
#1 being competition, which will drive the cost down, not up.
#2 being inflation. While price might go up, youll have more worthless monopoly money to afford it with.

Tesla is up against the curve now, and not the only fish in the tank.

Duh ... this is all assuming Tesla gets to robotaxi level FSD before others.

 

[Bladerskb]

Because the subscription didn't exist then.

So you literally can not apply what they said in 2018 to a different thing that did not exist in 2018


The FSD capability you were told your car could do without any HW charges is still available for you to buy today

NOTHING about that changed, other than it's gone up in price- which they ALSO told you could happen at the time.


This NEW product is not even AVAILABLE to HW2.x cars.





Nope. Again you can still outright buy it just like the day you bought the car and it costs you $0.00 in hardware.

The only thing that costs $1500 is if you want to make an older car eligible for a NEW SERVICE THAT DID NOT EXIST before today.

Without even the subs fiasco you could sue on the grounds that you have not received HW3 which they deemed to be required for FSD and no they can't force you to pay to get HW3 as that was never the requirement. The base car you bought WAS the requirement which they claimed had ALL hardware and only the software remains and only the software you are paying for. so either they pay out damages because they lied about the car having all hardware because the car clearly doesn't have all the hardware neccesary or they install HW3 for free.

The subs fiasco is just the cherry on top.

 

[EVNow]

Oh wait are we just citing broken promises from any auto maker now?

No - just showing going years back on quotes by companies is not very useful.

Every major company said they'd have FSD in "5 years" over the last decade.

 

[Jjrss]

Duh ... this is all assuming Tesla gets to robotaxi level FSD before others.

Which is honestly a decade+ off and several HW revisions later...

 

[PRLM3]

Ah OK tnx I see

 

[P3dStealth]

At this point I don't fully trust the basic AP in my 2021 M3. I won't go anywhere near the FSD features that are currently available, and not at $199/mo. I've had at least 3 phantom slow downs at highway speed, have it shut off from a traffic cone outside of the lane that was a little close. I only use it now in stop and go traffic where I'm under 15mph anyway, and when I'm on an open empty interstate. In any kind of traffic, even light traffic on the NYS Thruway, I stopped trusting it. As for auto-park, I'm skeptical that it would even be useful in Brooklyn where most parking spots have maybe 6 inches leeway. I can whip a car into those with ease, even my old minivan. I saw a Tesla try to get in and it couldn't do it. I also tried perpendicular parking on my test drive, and while it did it just fine, it would have taken me a fraction of the time. I'd have just pulled straight in. And then there is everybody you hold up while it does it. At least Elon promises it'll be able to read hand gestures!

Just about the only feature that I'd actually use is the green light bong, and only if it were fast enough to avoid the guy behind me honking within .25 seconds of it turning green. I was disappointed to find that was only a FSD feature even though I could see it on screen with visualization. NY'ers are so impatient...

I am in NY also. I am a huge fan of Tesla but my experience with FSD is that it is just not worth it for us in NY. Autopilot is great for the LIE HOV lane and traffic but FSD just can't handle things here. FSD lane changes don't work here. Auto parking either doesn't work or takes so long there's no point. NOA misses exits and can't change lanes to get to the exit anyway. Phantom braking is still bad and dangerous here. I think it's because we have so many shadows from bridges, overpasses and buildings.

I haven't seen any FSD beta testers in NYC. I think it's because NYC is like the final boss at the end of the game. I will be amazed if we ever have self driving cars here from any company. It's difficult for humans to drive here so I don't blame Tesla.

 

[FloridaJohn]

Tesla is additionally really screwing up here because they are trying to profit on the upgrade, not make it cost neutral.

There is no way a HW3 computer costs them $1,500- they make 500k of these a year. A teardown estimate puts it at $190. And before you scream "labor costs"- users have reported Tesla "Mine was done by mobile in my driveway. Took less than 1 hour." and "Mine was done by mobile service. Took a little longer, around 2 hrs, but the main guy was training a new guy."

The fair, neutral price here is probably $400. The fact that Tesla wants $1,500 means they want to profit off their mistake, which makes this behavior particularly egregious, slimy, and unacceptable.

The MCU2 replacement is the same price- $1,500, and includes TWO new LCD screens, and a whole computer with cell modems, GPS, audio amplifiers, etc. And that's an upgrade that they never promised anything around. Guess what they charge there for HW3? $500. Why is HW3 $1500 when you buy it another way and labor is only one hour?

Just wait until all the people who pay for HW3 find out that they need HW4 for “true” FSD!