MASTER THREAD: FSD Subscription Available 16 Jul 2021

[gearchruncher]

I will be amazed if we ever have self driving cars here from any company. It's difficult for humans to drive here so I don't blame Tesla.

There is a reason many self driving companies are focused on places like San Francisco, which is an incredibly hard and varied driving environment. It's NYC with hills

 

[linux-works]

Tesla is additionally really screwing up here because they are trying to profit on the upgrade, not make it cost neutral.

There is no way a HW3 computer costs them $1,500- they make 500k of these a year. A teardown estimate puts it at $190. And before you scream "labor costs"- users have reported Tesla "Mine was done by mobile in my driveway. Took less than 1 hour." and "Mine was done by mobile service. Took a little longer, around 2 hrs, but the main guy was training a new guy."

The fair, neutral price here is probably $400. The fact that Tesla wants $1,500 means they want to profit off their mistake, which makes this behavior particularly egregious, slimy, and unacceptable.

The MCU2 replacement is the same price- $1,500, and includes TWO new LCD screens, and a whole computer with cell modems, GPS, audio amplifiers, etc. And that's an upgrade that they never promised anything around. Guess what they charge there for HW3? $500. Why is HW3 $1500 when you buy it another way and labor is only one hour?

one proto (an IMX.8, if that means anything to anyone) I had at home for a while was close to $1k when done in short runs (less than 100). a vendor eval board (aurix, auto-grade tricore) was also to the tune of $1k, and that was with no value-add, just a ref board that we could use to do sw testing on.

I can imagine the cost of REAL auto-grade boards being close to $1k. it sounds crazy but I can confirm that in the real world, costs for well designed and well built ecu's are closer to $1k than $400. for all but the simplest ones.

as for the tear-down, I have my view on their competancy. I question it. I'll just leave it there.

 

[Zacster]

There is a reason many self driving companies are focused on places like San Francisco, which is an incredibly hard and varied driving environment. It's NYC with hills

I like SF, but it is NOT NYC from a driving standpoint. People are still polite in SF, pedestrians mostly wait for the light and don't cross wherever and whenever, there are many fewer taxis and ubers, people don't double park everywhere, nobody is in a great rush, there is no Cross Bronx Expressway or BQE. No, not NYC at all for driving. I'll agree though that the hills can be daunting.

 

[Knightshade]

- My Model Y, when on Autopilot, will see a line of orange barrel cones or triangle cones properly, but doesn't recognize the road work crews are using them to force lane merges in construction zones. It'll steer you right into the cones. It's absolutely ridiculous.

It is, indeed, ridiculous people keep using AP in places the owners manual explicitly says not to and then getting upset when it does odd things.

- "Phantom braking" due to radar returns from overpasses is *far* more frequent in the Tesla 3/Y than other vehicles. In fact, I've never experienced it in the Volvo or Ford, both of which have radar. In contrast, My Model Y has scared the crap out of us more than once at highway speeds with sudden braking for absolutely no reason. Moreover, sometimes it's just due to a slight dip or rise in the road messing with the radar returns...because Tesla still hasn't learned to properly process automative radar signals as well as more experienced manufacturers.

GREAT NEWS! Tesla has removed radar from the newest codebase exactly to address this issue.

That said- lots of car makers apart from Tesla have the same radar problem... others have it so bad they've had to actually issue recalls or been the subject of class action lawsuits- so you're suggesting it's unique to Tesla is inconsistent with the facts.

- Cross-traffic warnings are hit or miss. I've been in supermarket parking lots with the MY in reverse and all the cameras up on the display, when cars and pedestrians are either coming up or are behind the vehicle. No warning....nothing

Once again you appear to be imagining how something works without any support in the manual or the actual feature.

In this case you've created an entire feature that doesn't even exist, and gotten mad when it won't "work right"

Overall, I actually find the Model Y more stressful and anxiety-inducing to drive than the Volvo XC40 All-Electric Recharge for these reasons. And even the Ford Fusion seemed far more finely-tuned to me. The Volvo driver assistance features are smooth and reliable...the ones in the Tesla actually make the car stressful to drive.

Seems you've got 2 choices here...

Sell the car.

Actually read the manual to understand what features it does or does not have, and how they work- instead of expecting them to be identical to an entirely different vehicle from an entirely different maker.

If you are referencing something in 2019 for cars sold in 2016-2018, you've already lost the point

Uh- the post you quote was a reply to someone citing something said at autonomy day. In 2019.

And then saying they can't "change the deal" from what was said in 2019.

So I agree someone lost the point- but it was you

Where did it mention that the FSD they meant was only the one being sold on the day the car was sold?

Because it's the only one that existed?

Thus the version of FSD, when they made the statement, is the only version they could have meant

Do you need an explanation of how time works?


You can STILL get exactly what was promised. You can STILL buy the same FSD that was sold in mid-2019- and you'll be charged $0.00 for hardware if you do it.

You're just not eligible for a DIFFERENT SERVICE that involves a subscription if you don't have HW3.


Have you filed your lawsuit yet?

Without even the subs fiasco you could sue on the grounds that you have not received HW3 which they deemed to be required for FSD

No, you can't.

Because you can't sue for not having the hardware to use software you don't even have.

If you DO buy the software, you get the HW for free. So again there's no damages for which to sue.


The subscription eligibility is a different thing than buying FSD


Maybe thinking of it as renting a house vs buying a house will help?

You have different rights with each. They're not IDENTICAL things.

That's what I think too. If I'm on the interstate for 3-4 hour stretches without stopping, what do I really gain? I just did a cross country trip in my daughter's Camry and I wouldn't think anything beyond CC and maybe autosteer would help. The roads are empty in Minnesota and South Dakota and everybody is doing 80 (the speed limit in SD), and anywhere there is traffic I don't trust any of it enough (see my post on the prior page.)

FWIW on entirely empty roads you're probably right... you'd gain handling of interchanges and exits but that's about it.

That said, I just did a ~800 mile road trip last week through/near some major cities (including Atlanta and Charlotte) and the car passing slower traffic on its own, changing lanes to follow the route across different highways on its own, as well as handling exits, was VERY nice.

 

[Knightshade]

There is no way a HW3 computer costs them $1,500- they make 500k of these a year. A teardown estimate puts it at $190.

No, it does not.

It puts the LITERAL BARE CHIPs at $190.

It puts the entire HW3 computer at $635. Which is the thing they swap in.

From YOUR OWN link there's this picture

It also notes they estimate it'd take 4 years for Tesla to get their $ back on the investment of developing it-- $635 was just the pure physical HW cost, it doesn't amortize development costs at all, which businesses DO typically do including Tesla.


Further- they base that cost on NONE of the components changing OR getting any more expensive- in fact they explicitly called out that their estimate only remains true under that assumption.

We KNOW components have changed (there's already been HW3.1 and HW3.2 revisions), and we know stuff for computer HW in particular has gotten more expensive lately- meaning the real world cost is significantly higher- especially since that amortization has to go across far fewer units per rev.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I like SF, but it is NOT NYC from a driving standpoint. People are still polite in SF, pedestrians mostly wait for the light and don't cross wherever and whenever

Depends on which neighborhood. In Chinatown/Downtown area it is common for pedestrians to just cross in the middle of the street (sometimes even without looking). Also, although peds don't typically run a hard red light (actually when I see that, it's typically a car), it is very common for them to not wait for the light that lets peds go (like for example where light is green for traffic to allow a turn, but pedestrian light is still red).

, there are many fewer taxis and ubers,

I definitely agree there are far fewer taxis (was true even before car sharing apps killed them). However, Uber/Lyft is very common here.

people don't double park everywhere,

They do in my experience. Parking is very limited in the busier areas, so delivery trucks typically double park, and regular cars do too waiting for passengers.

nobody is in a great rush,

Perhaps not as rushed as people in NYC, but people here don't have much patience either.

there is no Cross Bronx Expressway or BQE.

I don't know if it's an equivalence, but there is the I-80 / US-101 transition. There is also a cross between I-280 and I-80. However, the biggest mess is nearby across the Bay, which is the I-80, 580, 880 transition. Basically horribly designed both ways, has horrible traffic, and is downright dangerous due to the need for traffic to crisscross and with traffic moving at drastically different speeds (some lanes at crawl, while others are just blasting down the road).

No, not NYC at all for driving. I'll agree though that the hills can be daunting.

 

[gearchruncher]

It puts the entire HW3 computer at $635. Which is the thing they swap in.

Cool.
Then why do they sell this for $500 as part of an MCU2 upgrade, and why are they charging $1500 for it for cars that already have the capability? Why not $635? Does it not appear they are trying to profit, not just break even?

 

[Knightshade]

Cool.
Then why do they sell this for $500 as part of an MCU2 upgrade, and why are they charging $1500 for it for cars that already have the capability? Why not $635?

Did you miss the part where it's only $635 if you ignore amortizing the development costs and you never change the parts (which they have- multiple times) and you don't see any increase in parts cost (which the entire chip industry HAS seen this last year?

(plus labor costs something of course)


I dare say your arguments have been appearing....less and less interested in honest fact-based debate, and more and more about grinding an axe against Tesla.

 

[daktari]

ok thanks for the info. just tested on highway i95. navigate on autopilot is working there and as soon as it takes an exit it ends however im still confused about what im seeing on youtube with the screens that are showing colored lines (curbs) and the broken blue line in front of the car when people are driving on non highway roads and the car still making its own left and right turns onto different streets and seems to be fully navigating on its own to its destination without being on a highway. so far my screen hasnt shown any of that. many of these videos are uploaded recently. wondering if all of these users are using a different version like navigate on city streets beta trial or something as where the new subscription version is basically just enhanced auto pilot for now? my vehicle is a 2021 model 3 sr plus built in february. any thoughts?

Yes, they have different software than you.

You paid (upfront) for FSD but it is not finished yet. I paid upfront for it in 2017.

There is essentially no practical difference between an EAP car and an FSD car today, unless you are one of the lucky youtube testers that have the prototype sw.

EAP is meant for highways/freeways only, not in the city, be careful.

 

[Knightshade]

Yes, they have different software than you.

You paid (upfront) for FSD but it is not finished yet. I paid upfront for it in 2017.

There is essentially no practical difference between an EAP car and an FSD car today, unless you are one of the lucky youtube testers that have the prototype sw.

EAP is meant for highways/freeways only, not in the city, be careful.

FSD (the wide release version out today) adds stoplight/stop sign recognition and stopping behavior--- EAP does not have that.

Currently it's the only difference in feature sets between EAP and FSD.

 

[techlogik]

For $199/mo you guarantee me beta Elon, I will buy it...otherwise, not worth it.

Not even worth trying for lane changing...full Beta with street driving or nothing.

 

[Bladerskb]

No, you can't.

Because you can't sue for not having the hardware to use software you don't even have.

If you DO buy the software, you get the HW for free. So again there's no damages for which to sue.


The subscription eligibility is a different thing than buying FSD


Maybe thinking of it as renting a house vs buying a house will help?

You have different rights with each. They're not IDENTICAL things.

You keep making things up like you always do.
The “All cars from 2016 has all the hardware needed for FSD Capability at safety level better than humans” has nothing to do with buying the FSD package or subscribing to a subscription.

It only applies to buying the car.
Jez this is basic logic.

it has nothing to do with having the FSD package. Your car came with “all hardware needed for FSD” and the promise that it had it with or without if you bought FSD package.

the promise “all hardware needed for FSD” was never conditioned on you buying the FSD package. Hence people bought the car knowing it has all the hardware needed for FSD and all they have to pay for is the software.

 

[V__2]

I was waiting for the subscription. But as one of the "forgotten" Model 3s (Jan - Apr? 2019), my car does not have Autopilot. To have the $199/month subscription, the app says I need to pay $3k for Autopilot then $1.5k for HW3. Cars like mine got skipped back then, ended up costing more and without Autopilot, and now again...

 

[Knightshade]

You keep making things up like you always do.

An inability to attack anything but the poster says you haven't much of an argument. Like you always don't I guess?

The “All cars from 2016 has all the hardware needed for FSD Capability at safety level better than humans” has nothing to do with buying the FSD package or subscribing to a subscription.

Sure it does.

If you didn't own FSD you were not losing anything not having the computer after all.

That's why when HW3 became a thing they mentioned you'd get it free if you BOUGHT FSD- but not if you didn't, since you didn't actually need it if you didn't own FSD.


This subscription is a new service only available to those with HW3 already in their car.

(which is somewhere around 80-90% of the current post-AP1 fleet by the way)

It only applies to buying the car.
Jez this is basic logic.

It is, you just keep getting it wrong.

Go ask someone who has an AP2.x car and did NOT buy FSD if they got the HW3 computer just because they "bought the car"

Of course they didn't.

This wasn't controversial a week ago, it's been known since 2019.

it has nothing to do with having the FSD package. Your car came with “all hardware needed for FSD” and the promise that it had it with or without if you bought FSD package.

Again- everyone has known since 2019 that you need HW3 for FSD. Anyone who bought it got HW3 for free.

Why keep acting like there's SUDDENLY NEW INFO?

the promise “all hardware needed for FSD” was never conditioned on you buying the FSD package.

Then why didn't the EAP people (or hell, even the "didn't buy ANY driving aid options" people) get HW3 upgrades for free if "buying FSD" had nothing to do with the free HW upgrades?


But again, that tiny minority of the fleet who still have HW2.x and want FSD without buying any hardware can still get that

By buying FSD.

Just like always.

(S/X owners in that position also have the potential to get HW3 via the MCU upgrade path too)

 

[stopcrazypp]

You keep making things up like you always do.
The “All cars from 2016 has all the hardware needed for FSD Capability at safety level better than humans” has nothing to do with buying the FSD package or subscribing to a subscription.

It only applies to buying the car.
Jez this is basic logic.

it has nothing to do with having the FSD package. Your car came with “all hardware needed for FSD” and the promise that it had it with or without if you bought FSD package.

the promise “all hardware needed for FSD” was never conditioned on you buying the FSD package. Hence people bought the car knowing it has all the hardware needed for FSD and all they have to pay for is the software.

But I think the problem for that argument is that in August 2017 for HW2.5 release Tesla was already talking about possible hardware upgrades for FSD. Then again in March 2019 with HW3 launch they confirmed they would be doing retrofits for FSD buyers (arguably at that point it was conditioned as part of the FSD purchase). If this was an issue to be taken up, those were the time periods that retrofits would be requested (regardless of if you paid for FSD or not).

So the question was why wasn't that taken up: the answer is people who didn't buy FSD option wouldn't get the software anyways, so not having the hardware have no affect on them in regards to that statement. People are taking up issue with it now because they now need to pay $1500 to be able to use the FSD subscription.

I could see the point of the other side however: when the people bought their cars back during that statement, there was never an understanding that the cars would be able to access FSD under a subscription, because one simply didn't exist, nor was it even an idea at all. It was understood you have to pay for the FSD option to use it (an option still offered today). By the time the subscription idea was even mentioned in 2020, it was already clear that HW3 was required for FSD. Also, there are a bunch of FSD buyers that bought it due to being able to get a HW3 upgrade as part of it. If people could just circumvent that and get it free as part of a $200 subscription fee, those people would be pissed off.

I kind of foresaw this would be an issue in previous discussions about the subscription (and felt Tesla would never offer it free for non-FSD buyers, given if they wanted to do that, they would have done it long ago, as soon as HW3 came out). I felt a balanced way to address concerns of both sides would be to have a minimum term contract (given $200/month, like maybe an 8 month minimum that would let Tesla recover the costs of retrofit, address existing FSD owners, and offer something to owners doing the hardware upgrade).

The whole thing about the $3000 AP option prerequisite is a whole other story.

 

[Buckarooo]

$199/month?!?!

So what was that $7k all about? Can I get it back?

Any class actions underway?

 

[stopcrazypp]

$199/month?!?!

So what was that $7k all about? Can I get it back?

Any class actions underway?

I presume you are talking about $7k for upfront? That gives you FSD for the life of your car. The subscription would only give you 35 months even assuming Tesla never raises the price.

As for class action, not seeing how that would happen. Like for example, Tesla have lowered the price in the past and owners that paid more are not entitled to a refund of the difference. Things just don't work that way.

 

[SlimJim]

Yes. If he keeps the car longer than 35 months he is actually making money!!

 

[mrbulk]

Ummm, get some Coffee STAT! If your wifes MY lease would only add 126 a month by adding 10,000 to the cost then the lease must be 80 months. On an average 36 month lease adding 10,000 to the cost would increase the monthly payment by $278.

Keith

PS: If the price of FSD is lower when you lease than it is when you purchase then ignore my entire post If this is the case, how much is it?

Hmmm, I was indeed caffeine-free at the time I typed that, but went back and re-did it and it's still the same. I was using Tesla's own lease and purchase calculators on their configurator page; if you click to buy the FSD, the lease and loan figures change by the same amounts I originally posted.

 

[Knightshade]

I kind of foresaw this would be an issue in previous discussions about the subscription (and felt Tesla would never offer it free for non-FSD buyers, given if they wanted to do that, they would have done it long ago, as soon as HW3 came out). I felt a balanced way to address concerns of both sides would be to have a minimum term contract (given $200/month, like maybe an 8 month minimum that would let Tesla recover the costs of retrofit, address existing FSD owners, and offer something to owners doing the hardware upgrade).

Yup, I was thinking some fixed term like 12 or 24 month prepaid subscription would get you HW3 if you needed it-- but month to month only available to those who already had it.

That said- Tesla is kinda awful on the back-end IT stuff so it's not THAT surprising they didn't try and offer different term length subscriptions... Same as premium data really, where normally you'd expect some kinda discounted pre-paid 12-month plan to be available but no- it's month to month or nothing.