Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[Garlan Garner]

There are a lot of companies replacing their workers ( especially union ) with robots and automation.

There seems to be a thought that the tools of that past will continue to work. Tools such as striking - walkouts - threats. Unfortunately the human work force is getting smaller and smaller which reduces the effectiveness of the tools. I know its happening in my company.

Assembly lines are increasing, however the number of workers are being reduced. I think it would behoove the union to partner with companies ( if they aren't already doing so ) and possibly change out their tools.

This year Tesla: 1. Installed hundreds of robots. 2. Reduced its workforce by hundreds. I would suppose this is partially due to the fact that Robots don't require overtime pay...or complain about conditions or require lunch breaks or...."xyz" as people do. They just do their jobs as long as they are plugged in.

Each company is different from one another and technology is offering competition for human workers. For example: When I take my car in now-a-days...humans don't have to determine what's wrong with my car anymore. They just plugin to the computer of the car and read what the problem is. Just imagine the opportunities with a Tesla....I can imagine that Tesla could diagnose a problem with the car remotely or have the car report its own problem and schedule its own repair times with the service center.

Its going to be interesting in that human population is growing, however the job market is shrinking - along with union sizes.

 

[ElecFan]

Robotization and automation has been reducing the human workforce for many decades now. And every reduction in one place has created opportunities elsewhere. Unions are important to make sure that bosses do not hustle at the expense of their workforce. As in politics power concentrated with a single person or group is a bad idea.

 

[Stolz25]

This year Tesla: 1. Installed hundreds of robots. 2. Reduced its workforce by hundreds.

Even if the worst case estimates are true and it’s 700, that is only 2% of Tesla’s 33,000 employees. And Musk said the vast majority of that would be back filled with new hires. This doesn’t sound like a reduction to me so much as trying to improve the quality of the work force.

This seems pretty tame, at least compared to the Rank and Yank systems I’m used to.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Even if the worst case estimates are true and it’s 700, that is only 2% of Tesla’s 33,000 employees. And Musk said the vast majority of that would be back filled with new hires. This doesn’t sound like a reduction to me so much as trying to improve the quality of the work force.

This seems pretty tame, at least compared to the Rank and Yank systems I’m used to.

Did you say "Elon said......."?

 

[Stolz25]

Did you say "Elon said......."?

Actually I said Musk said.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Actually I said Musk said.

Oh yeah....that's a different person.

 

[ElecFan]

Did you say "Elon said......."?

Ha ha, you've lost all faith in the guy, haven't you? Yes, he is a bit of a dreamer if it comes to the future. A visionary like him can have trouble to deal with the horrible reality. That's both his strenght and weakness.

In this case I suspect he's actually close to reality. Tesla needs to deliver half a million cars in the coming months and that will take every ounce of effort of all people involved. It doesn't make sense to sack people in this situation as some sort of cut on expenses. Tesla needs a motivated workforce, so replaces the ones who do not fit in this picture with those who do. I'd do the same if it were my company.

 

[FlatSix911]

Tesla Model 3 production bottlenecks are due to suppliers, says Oppenheimer after meeting with management

A lot of eyes are on Tesla’s Model 3 production ramp up, especially following a production of only 260 Model 3 vehicles during the third quarter and some misleading media reports. Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch said that he met with Tesla last week, along with other investors, and he wrote in a note to clients today (via Barron’s):

“Tesla indicated that all the production equipment for Model 3 was installed and working and that all vehicles were moving through the manufacturing line. We understand the delayed ramp is due to a small number of suppliers failing to deliver on time.” He added that “at least one of those suppliers has been fired and replaced by insourcing.”

Tesla CEO Elon Musk had warned that the automaker’s supply program for Model 3 would be highly competitive due to the high volumes they are aiming for over a short timeline. He said that suppliers will be held to high standards and deadlines or otherwise they could be fired – adding that “if you can make a human in 9 months, you can make a tool in 9 months,” in reference to the Model 3 production timeline.

Rusch places Tesla’s total Model 3 deliveries at 3,005 units this year. Considering Tesla delivered just over 200 Model 3 vehicles during the third quarter, it would mean about 2,800 Model 3 deliveries during the current quarter.

 

[Chewy3]

Considering that VIN 1134 is still the highest one registered this is becoming a scary possibility.

 

[ElecFan]

If the bottlenecks aren't solved 600 might be max.

 

[tsla007]

Troy-
i was supposed to get my car yesterday? time for an update to this program.

I wonder if it is all a ploy.
Tesla batteries arriving at PR.
Perhaps all those batteries were supposed to be for model 3 but they needed to put that on hold?
I doubt it though. Drive trains are already piling up for model 3.
Not worried about the bottlenecks. They will get worked out eventually.

Stock holders be wary. Don't bet what you can't lose.
It is vital that ramp up kicks it up a major notch by Dec quarterly close.
It is sort of scary-it'll take about a month from open config to getting cars out the door and delivered.
So it needs to be config open by Nov 1st or major pain coming to the stock.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Tesla Model 3 production bottlenecks are due to suppliers, says Oppenheimer after meeting with management
.

When I was younger the dog ate my homework a few times as well.

My teacher never cared.

 

[ElecFan]

I don't think it's an excuse, merely a way to state that the 'welding'-speculation is wrong.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I don't think it's an excuse, merely a way to state that the 'welding'-speculation is wrong.

I don't think its an excuse either.

I just don't think its good practice to pawn this off onto a vendor.

 

[voip-ninja]

I don't think its an excuse either.

I just don't think its good practice to pawn this off onto a vendor.

It works as well as anything else.

Saying "we tried to find multiple suppliers and split our orders but that didn't really work out so well" would be very very bad for them to state publicly... even if it where the truth.

 

[Garlan Garner]

It works as well as anything else.

Saying "we tried to find multiple suppliers and split our orders but that didn't really work out so well" would be very very bad for them to state publicly... even if it where the truth.

True. Very true. .

 

[HappyValley]

Hi, everybody. We might not know everything but we do have some data. For example, here are the reservation counts Tesla released:

373,000 net reservations on 15 March 2016. Source
455,000 net reservations on 28 July 2017. Source

The difference is 439 days. That means (455,000-373,000)/439= 187 reservations per day. However, immediately after the 28 July 2017 delivery event, they had 1,800 reservations per day, based on this statement:


All this data is part of the calculations. I have just made some adjustments today. By the way, if you are not within the first 60% of global reservations, the estimator is less accurate.

The spreadsheet you put together is really awesome! I made a reservation on 8/4/17, after becoming aware of the Model 3 through all the press that was generated after the event. It looks like I'm not slated for delivery until July 2019. Wow! That's a long wait!

 

[HappyValley]

Hi, everybody. We might not know everything but we do have some data. For example, here are the reservation counts Tesla released:

373,000 net reservations on 15 March 2016. Source
455,000 net reservations on 28 July 2017. Source

The difference is 439 days. That means (455,000-373,000)/439= 187 reservations per day. However, immediately after the 28 July 2017 delivery event, they had 1,800 reservations per day, based on this statement:


All this data is part of the calculations. I have just made some adjustments today. By the way, if you are not within the first 60% of global reservations, the estimator is less accurate.

The spreadsheet you put together is really awesome! I made a reservation on 8/4/17, after becoming aware of the Model 3 through all the press that was generated after the event. It looks like I'm not slated for delivery until July 2019. Wow! That's a long wait!

 

[seattlite2004]

Any chance you can put in a tax credit estimator into your tool. I'm thinking a bunch of folks including myself would be interested in their estimated tax credit.

 

[Oloron]

Hi, everybody. We might not know everything but we do have some data. For example, here are the reservation counts Tesla released:

373,000 net reservations on 15 March 2016. Source
455,000 net reservations on 28 July 2017. Source

The difference is 439 days. That means (455,000-373,000)/439= 187 reservations per day. However, immediately after the 28 July 2017 delivery event, they had 1,800 reservations per day, based on this statement:


All this data is part of the calculations. I have just made some adjustments today. By the way, if you are not within the first 60% of global reservations, the estimator is less accurate.

Troy - out of curiosity, are you planning to update the estimator based on today's earnings call?