Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[smak]

With all due respect to Troy's hard work, some of the assumptions in his model run contrary to what Tesla is indicating that they are going to do by way of the estimates they are giving. Given that only Tesla actually knows what their plans are, I would believe Tesla's prediction far more than anything that is derived from guessing how they will prioritize orders. I feel the assumption that they will switch 100% percent over to dual motor is just wrong, because they haven't done that previously. And I think their choice will have very little to do with what is "fair", rather than what will allow them to push out the most units.

There's no chance they 100% stop production of RWD cars to make dual motor cars exclusively.

The RWD LR and SR are the standard cars. AWD is a choice people are making, Tesla isn't going to care about the tax credit for those people that much, that they shut down production of the RWD.

 

[CricTic]

It's worth reiterating the point made earlier (I forget by whom) that Tesla is likely to set up a second manufacturing line for AWD. Given the volume of Model 3s they need to push out compared to S and X, it seems overwhelmingly likely that they will run the RWD and AWD lines side by side. It's just easiest. People who absolutely need the tax rebate can get RWD.

 

[UZJedi]

Non-owner. I reserved online before the reveal around 7:45pm, 3/31/16. Getting RWD long range. Troy's estimator says Feb 1st for delivery. Tesla estimator says Dec-Feb for long range. All the assumptions aside, that at least sounds realistic to me given where we're at today assuming production does indeed ramp up soon.

 

[run-the-joules]

Non-owner. I reserved online before the reveal around 7:45pm, 3/31/16. Getting RWD long range. Troy's estimator says Feb 1st for delivery. Tesla estimator says Dec-Feb for long range. All the assumptions aside, that at least sounds realistic to me given where we're at today assuming production does indeed ramp up soon.

Interesting. I reserved at 9pm on that night, and I'm based in California. Troy's estimator says 4 February for me. We should see if we really end up 3 days apart, that'd be interesting.

 

[UZJedi]

Interesting. I reserved at 9pm on that night, and I'm based in California. Troy's estimator says 4 February for me. We should see if we really end up 3 days apart, that'd be interesting.

Oh, I failed to mention that I'm in Washington state. Given Troy's assumptions, that gap 3 day gap makes sense. My 1 1/4 hour head start should make a big difference all things being equal, but I'm not in California.

Edit: Just realized my location is shown under my username. I'm a newb.

 

[DrivingRockies]

Hi, @seattlite2004. I have updated the calculations today including the tax credits part.

With the criticism you've received, I have to admit your January estimate seems very likely in relation to the recent tweets. :-(

 

[FlatSix911]

Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk elaborates on delivery timeline, production hell, and standard features

 

[FlatSix911]

Sounds like first customer deliveries in December to me

 

[ElecFan]

Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk elaborates on delivery timeline, production hell, and standard features

View attachment 252370

Don't understand Elon's last reply. What about EAP, premium upgrades, wheels?

 

[Garlan Garner]

Elon said "Expect the worst".

Where are all of my critics?

 

[ElecFan]

expect the worst, the result can only be better.

 

[N5329K]

Elon said "Expect the worst".

Where are all of my critics?

Patiently waiting?
Honestly, the quicker you take delivery the buggier it will be.
Robin

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Elon said "Expect the worst".

Where are all of my critics?

No one wants to engage with Eeyore. Had you had a sunny outlook and been proven right, you'd be getting congratulated right now.

 

[Garlan Garner]

No one wants to engage with Eeyore. Had you had a sunny outlook and been proven right, you'd be getting congratulated right now.

What?

You might want to start believing the truth instead of judging whether the truth is good or bad all of the time.

 

[diamond.g]

What?

You might want to start believing the truth instead of judging whether the truth is good or bad all of the time.

What are we supposed to do? Give up and get a Chevy Bolt?

 

[Garlan Garner]

What are we supposed to do? Give up and get a Chevy Bolt?

No...just start discussing the truth and not constantly trying to say that the truth isn't the truth if its bad news....and lets stop discussing the truth in threads if its bad news......and you are a bad person if you say "bad" things ( despite if its the truth or not ).

 

[diamond.g]

No...just start discussing the truth and not constantly trying to say that the truth isn't the truth if its bad news....and lets stop discussing the truth in threads if its bad news......and you are a bad person if you say "bad" things ( despite if its the truth or not ).

Okay. So we won’t see our cars until the summer or fall of next year. At the earliest. Now what?

 

[shrspeedblade]

While there may be some disappointment, I'm still trying to remember (and would counsel others to do likewise) that especially for those of use who placed a reservation around March 31 of last year at the time we didn't really expect to see the car until late 2017 for a few and 2018 for the bulk of us. I applaud Tesla for aiming to get the ramp up going earlier but think they erred in fanning the flames of expectation a bit too much. Elon's optimism and ambition is a two edged sword.

At the end of the day it's far more critical that they get the car released in a reliable state and ramp up in such a way as to get the most number of people the biggest tax credit possible or the earliest delivery in 2018 possible to fulfill reservations if outside the U.S.

 

[dsvick]

Don't understand Elon's last reply. What about EAP, premium upgrades, wheels?

I'm a little confused too. I'm taking to mean that they do not the full configurator to be open yet, they can continue using the limited one that we've seen for employees. If that's the case then the 6 - 8 weeks isn't as bad as it may sound initially. We'll find out in the next few weeks I'd guess though if there are any non-employees asked to configure.

 

[TEG]

I took it to mean that they don't have to know far ahead of time about last minute options like which wheels to mount and which software options to enable. They need an early online configurator more to know the big stuff like battery pack size, drivetrain type, interior materials, roof type... the hardware stuff that happens on the production line . And as we know they are building one configuration of that stuff right now. Hopefully they can predict the popularity of the various paint colors ahead of time.