The truth? The only truth is that no one here knows what will happen or has any real information as to the timeline of the rollout. All we have are vague statements and loosely defined delivery estimates. You come here and spout your negativity all the time, but even if some of your guesses turn out to be correct you’re not going to be celebrated for it. It certainly isn’t “the truth” - just a lucky guess.
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ModelNforNerd
Active Member
But that's all you've done. Your schtick has gotten old. The doomsday weirdos at the train station that tell us midnight is upon us are technically right every day, too........
Garlan Garner
Banned
Who says that? Who said summer or fall next year?
Anyway....it may not affect you....so congratulations. There are some trying to time their lease roll and such. That's what.
Garlan Garner
Banned
LOL..
Wait what? Of course we knew what would happen. Why were so many people looking out for the ramp? Where did they get ramp info from?
We also know that the configurator will be up in 6-8 weeks right? Why do we know this? Did someone in the forum make this date range up?
Again. the truth has been that the ramp was not going on. That's all I've been saying. Call it what you want....but its been the truth - not a magical guess.
The VIN numbers weren't ramping up......that's not a guess. That was easy kindergarten math.
Why do so many people want to hear that its a sunny day in the middle of a storm?
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Garlan Garner
Banned
I told the truth....call it what you want. Call it doomsday or whatever...but it was and is the truth.
AND if you believe that's all I do.....you aren't following me well at all.
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wow...did the math and you have posted on average 10 times a day...for the last 555 days....congrats?
Garlan Garner
Banned
Where is my trophy? Maybe it will be included in my gift from Tesla for waiting in line. lol
I for one don’t follow you at all. No offence.
Hi, everybody. We might not know everything but we do have some data. For example, here are the reservation counts Tesla released:
373,000 net reservations on 15 March 2016. Source
455,000 net reservations on 28 July 2017. Source
The difference is 439 days. That means (455,000-373,000)/439= 187 reservations per day. However, immediately after the 28 July 2017 delivery event, they had 1,800 reservations per day, based on this statement:
All this data is part of the calculations. I have just made some adjustments today. By the way, if you are not within the first 60% of global reservations, the estimator is less accurate.
373,000 net reservations on 15 March 2016. Source
455,000 net reservations on 28 July 2017. Source
The difference is 439 days. That means (455,000-373,000)/439= 187 reservations per day. However, immediately after the 28 July 2017 delivery event, they had 1,800 reservations per day, based on this statement:
All this data is part of the calculations. I have just made some adjustments today. By the way, if you are not within the first 60% of global reservations, the estimator is less accurate.
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voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
The 373,000reservations were May 15 not March 15 according to your linked source.
At the 3/31 reveal Tesla reported they already had about 115,000 reservations. That number grew to 150,000 over the next day.
Hi, @voip-ninja, you are right. I have actually 15 May on the file and 439 days was calculated from 15 May. It's a shame I can't edit my messages in this forum but thanks for the correction. The screenshot below is from column AC here.
Hi, @voip-ninja, you are right. I have actually 15 May on the file and 439 days was calculated from 15 May. It's a shame I can't edit my messages in this forum but thanks for the correction. The screenshot below is from column AC here.
Based on this, I'm somewhere under 32k, but being on East coast makes me think I'll be getting m3 around 44-60k timeframe.
This is awesome table btw!
I understand you are very anxious for some reason (lease timing? Stock value tied to immediate car purchase?) but it’s not a storm for me personally, and not an unexpected “storm” for Tesla, so please don’t call it that as if it was an objective label. You say you like unabashed truth so qualifying the subjective in your statements may make them stronger.
Yeah, people who timed stuff to a very unpredictable ramp of which typically low-confidence (optimistic) projections were given have a high confidence chance of being disappointed. Now when Elon says “expect the worse” I expect at least 6 months delay...and that’s not the worse I can imagine. I will be happy to hear it may still look like it’s happening earlier.
Garlan Garner
Banned
Again. Its not simply timing that I have an issue with. If Tesla could stop saying what their timing might be / could be / possibly is....and give us the actual truth....then everything would be much better.
Tell us they will produce 2000 cars per month in December after they produce 2000 cars in November. That way....at least at that point they know for sure they can do it.
Stop saying that a car will drive from California to New York under FULL autonomy unless they know they can do it.
Stop saying that AP1 will match AP2 ( supposed to had been last January ) by a certain date.
It has very little to do with my anxiety.
It's a fully refundable $1k reservation deposit. Almost everyone interested in a longer range BEV can set and forget that amount for a couple of years. It's been hard to get a BEV in Canada. I think a bigger reservation amount is required for the Ford Focus, Bolt, Hyundai Ioniq and I think the 2018 models have waiting periods of a few months to half a year (or more). There is also little haggling one can do because of the limited supply. It's likely easier in the States but for now only the Bolt has a long enough range until the Leaf 60 kWh come up (perhaps with some sort of TMS).
I'd rather leave the $1k with Tesla (which most of us had done so on March 31st / April 1st ) and decide when the time comes if it will be a Tesla or the competition. No point requesting for the deposit only to have to wait in line if competition falters.
The only things stopping competition are the price of the battery (profit margins slimmer to negative) and unionized workforce. Technological catch up is not the primary reason.
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SmartElectric
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Banned
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