Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[tpatana]

I'm guessing I'm taking the original estimate date (from couple months ago), and add 3-4 months to that. It'll probably hit close assuming no further delays. Fingers crossed...

 

[FlatSix911]

The revised Tesla estimates are really not believable ... A One month delay (Elon Time) equals Three month delay (Real Time)

 

[tpatana]

My page has updated.

Used to be Jan - Mar 2018

Now it's Feb-Apr 2018

Finger crossed that stays.

SR say Mid 2018, Dual motor Oct-Dec 2018.

 

[Sunshine Speed]

My page updated too. I'm a non-employee non-owner 7AM line waiter. First production moved out by a month, was Nov to Jan, now it's Dec to Feb. Base Model changed from "Jan to March" into "Early 2018". Dual-Motor AWD now says "Aug to Oct".

 

[tsla007]

Troy-
i was supposed to get my car yesterday? time for an update to this program.

I wonder if it is all a ploy.
Tesla batteries arriving at PR.
Perhaps all those batteries were supposed to be for model 3 but they needed to put that on hold?
I doubt it though. Drive trains are already piling up for model 3.
Not worried about the bottlenecks. They will get worked out eventually.

Stock holders be wary. Don't bet what you can't lose.
It is vital that ramp up kicks it up a major notch by Dec quarterly close.
It is sort of scary-it'll take about a month from open config to getting cars out the door and delivered.
So it needs to be config open by Nov 1st or major pain coming to the stock.

SEEMS I WAS RIGHT! MAJOR PAIN TO BAG HOLDERS IN VALUE.

 

[tsla007]

I think jag is just mad. LOL.

 

[tsla007]

All nov and 1/2 of dec will go to employees only. then owners-depending on ramp up-I highly doubt any non owner will see their car this year.

 

[CricTic]

Looks like @Troy just pushed an update. Thanks Troy!

3/31 non-owner line waiter in TX, looks like my delivery would be in late March. Pretty much what I figured :-/

Now let's see if the gov't will even let me get a tax rebate on this car ...

Edit - for comparison's sake, Tesla is telling me my window is Dec - Feb. It was Nov - Jan before this week's update.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

One month slip to Nov-Jan now as a 3/31 Tesla owner. Really need the car by mid-Dec given wife's e-Golf lease being done by then. Would help get the tax credit too in case it goes away.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I'm strongly considering sliding into a Model S, either loaner or floor model.

My trade in value will never be higher, because I have a cash buyer lined up.

Then...I'll defer my Model 3 res until I can get a Performance trim. So next summer/fall.

The trade in of my used S should knock around $3000 off my state sales tax bill.
And it might even give me the added benefit of sliding into the owners' queue.

Spending this weekend working on getting the Audi sold.

 

[azred]

All nov and 1/2 of dec will go to employees only. then owners-depending on ramp up-I highly doubt any non owner will see their car this year.

That would mean that thanks to the Trumpists the only Model 3 owners likely to get the $7500 tax deduction will be Tesla employees and VIPs such as Tesla board members. Make ICE Great Again

 

[N5329K]

That would mean that thanks to the Trumpists the only Model 3 owners likely to get the $7500 tax deduction will be Tesla employees and VIPs such as Tesla board members. Make ICE Great Again

No, not ICE. Coal, baby. Coal.
Robin

 

[shrspeedblade]

Trump does seem a bit nostaligic for, "The Good Ol' Days!"

On topic: my Tesla estimate got bumped one month from Nov-Jan to Dec-Feb, but I'm highly dubious.
The estimator says March 12, which seems more realistic but we'll see. Maybe it's like removing a plug in a pipe and output increases quickly and dramatically!

 

[vinnie97]

Pretty sure he's for an all of the above energy policy. I just hope there isn't too much spent subsidizing coal (or at least no more than renewables, with my own preference being that they end subsidization of all energy, though I know that's a pipedream).

ON-TOPIC: Delivery time is now 4-8-18. Troy is certainly more credible than Elon and Tesla's estimator at this point.

 

[Doug Martoccia]

Tesla delivery estimator also shows that I got bumped one month from Oct-Dec 2017 to Nov 2017-Jan 2018. Not sure why Tesla has reasons for optimism for delivering this month. If I was them, I would have pushed everyone's estimate out two months just to give the possibility of delivering early.

 

[Troy]

Hi. Calculations have been updated: Model 3 Delivery Estimator

The federal tax credits situation for AWD cars makes the exact delivery estimate more important than the 3-month delivery window Tesla shows. So I thought I should update the estimator again. If you prefer AWD, I recommend waiting until the conference call around 22 February 2018. The exact date is unknown yet but last year the Q4 conference call was on 22 Feb.

If you have reserved late, this estimator might show a much later estimate than what Tesla.com shows because they are expecting a quicker production ramp-up which might put you before the EU production in late 2018. In my version, if you can't make it before EU production starts, then your delivery will be delayed a lot (more than 6 months).

Tesla is hoping to reach 5,000 units/week by the end of Q1 2018 and 10,000 units/week a year after that. If they manage to do that, they would make 304,000 Model 3s in 2018. My estimate is 254,000. Adam Jonas estimates 110,000. See the details here.

By the way, check out the Model 3 range numbers I have calculated with different wheel options here.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Hi.

Tesla is hoping to reach 5,000 units/week by the end of Q1 2018 and 10,000 units/week a year after that. If they manage to do that, they would make 304,000 Model 3s in 2018. My estimate is 254,000. Adam Jones estimates 110,000. See the details here.

.

You estimate that only half of the reservations will be made in 2018?

I really really can't imagine why Tesla can't double their number of assembly lines for the model 3.

 

[ggies07]

Hi. Calculations have been updated: Model 3 Delivery Estimator

The federal tax credits situation for AWD cars makes the exact delivery estimate more important than the 3-month delivery window Tesla shows. So I thought I should update the estimator again. If you prefer AWD, I recommend waiting until the conference call around 22 February 2018. The exact date is unknown yet but last year the Q4 conference call was on 22 Feb.

If you have reserved late, this estimator might show a much later estimate than what Tesla.com shows because they are expecting a quicker production ramp-up which might put you before the EU production in late 2018. In my version, if you can't make it before EU production starts, then your delivery will be delayed a lot (more than 6 months).

Tesla is hoping to reach 5,000 units/week by the end of Q1 2018 and 10,000 units/week a year after that. If they manage to do that, they would make 304,000 Model 3s in 2018. My estimate is 254,000. Adam Jones estimates 110,000. See the details here.

By the way, check out the Model 3 range numbers I have calculated with different wheel options here.

Hey Troy,

It seems the drop-down list for the trim is not there............

 

[run-the-joules]

edit: appears to be fixed.

 

[PoitNarf]

Delivery estimate for me is March 27th... but I'd be ok if this turns out to be accurate. I'd rather take delivery after winter is over.