-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
A few messages ago I said this:
Tesla has now released the Q4 2017 Model 3 numbers here:
1,550 delivered
2,425 produced
I have made a small adjustment to match these numbers. You probably won't notice a difference because the estimates were pretty close. I'm watching the other spreadsheet here to see how Tesla will handle owner priorities. There is still no new batch of invites after 23 Dec.
Tesla has now released the Q4 2017 Model 3 numbers here:
1,550 delivered
2,425 produced
I have made a small adjustment to match these numbers. You probably won't notice a difference because the estimates were pretty close. I'm watching the other spreadsheet here to see how Tesla will handle owner priorities. There is still no new batch of invites after 23 Dec.
Last edited:
Someone reported that they receive configure invite 28-Dec in a different thread on tmc.
"we expect to have a slightly more gradual ramp through Q1, likely ending the quarter at a weekly rate of about 2,500 Model 3 vehicles. We intend to achieve the 5,000 per week milestone by the end of Q2."
So Q1 total deliveries somewhere around 12-15k I'm guessing, and 30-35k in Q2.
Based on the calculator, my global number is around 25k, meaning I would get my vehicle mid-May.
Assuming nothing changes.
So Q1 total deliveries somewhere around 12-15k I'm guessing, and 30-35k in Q2.
Based on the calculator, my global number is around 25k, meaning I would get my vehicle mid-May.
Assuming nothing changes.
UZJedi
Member
What about their protection of hitting 5k/w by end of Q2 instead of end of Q1? Now they are saying only 2500/w by end of Q1. Does your model ignore those projections?
I'm working on the other changes as we speak. Tesla used to say 5,000 units/week by the end of Q1 2018. I was using 3,175 units. Today they said 2,500. I forgot to update that. I'm working on it now. It's mostly done. Need to fine tune.
suwaneedad
Member
Troy, how is your model taking into account deferrals by those invited to order? Somewhere else in TMC, someone has a good sheet going capturing the behavior of invitees to configure. It looked to me yesterday that ~40% of invitees are deferring (waiting for SR, or white interior, or P, or D, or non-PUP, etc). That'd presumably have a really big influence on your model's prediction of when a given reservation holder will get their M3.
Hi, @suwaneedad. Yes, indeed the percentage of reservation holders who want AWD or P versions has a big effect on calculations. I have used model3tracker survey data to calculate these percentages. I'm also considering how people might change their mind because of the federal tax credits.
When model3tracker collected most of the survey data, Tesla used to say July 2018 for AWD but that was before the production bottlenecks. After November, they started saying Aug 2018. That's pretty close to the 30 Sep 2018 when tax credits drop from $7,500 to $3,750. Therefore many people will change their mind and get the RWD version. However, the percentage of people who change their mind will be lower in cold climates because they need AWD. I'm considering all these details. You can see these percentages I use in cells Q2:S13 here. I'm aware of the spreadsheet you mentioned. It is this one.
When model3tracker collected most of the survey data, Tesla used to say July 2018 for AWD but that was before the production bottlenecks. After November, they started saying Aug 2018. That's pretty close to the 30 Sep 2018 when tax credits drop from $7,500 to $3,750. Therefore many people will change their mind and get the RWD version. However, the percentage of people who change their mind will be lower in cold climates because they need AWD. I'm considering all these details. You can see these percentages I use in cells Q2:S13 here. I'm aware of the spreadsheet you mentioned. It is this one.
Last edited:
Whatever changes you made already have delayed my delivery by almost 2 weeks. Troy, just curious on your range estimations (I'm not a member at models3ownersclub), but where are you getting data for the dual motor version? A 15-mile range enhancement *almost* makes me want to wait for the summer. I assume this is from the EPA data release?
Troy, why do you group LR and SR trims when we know that right now the LR's will be delivered months sooner than SR's? Do you take this into account for early deliveries?
Callahan
Member
@Troy was kind enough to answer my very similar question yesterday. Here was his response:
“@Migdilio, the LR/SR difference is something that complicates the calculations too much. Therefore I didn't add this feature. Hopefully, Tesla will soon start making the Standard Range packs and get rid of the different estimates. The earliest Model 3 SR I have seen reported is Feb 2018 - Apr 2018.“
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Troy, can you explain why non-employees are receiving cars if only 2,425 have been produced and your spreadsheet indicates that 3,452 employees will want RWD? Thanks.
I think the 25% take up amongst employees is too optimistic. The majority of employees are in low paying functions like manufacturing and sales. It's doubtfull they are in a financial position to close on a $35k car let alone the $55k car as it is right now. Especially if a significant portion of their pay is stock based (not selling it all, only vests in the future etc..) Those that are managers or (silicon valley based) engineers probably already have an S and or an X.
The spreadsheet uses 2,798 RWD employee reservations, not 3,452. I'm not sure where you saw that number. I didn't make any changes to this in the last update yesterday. In search results on row 20, it says "Employee RWD res in California". If you try all 5 USA regions, you get 2,337 + 86 + 41 + 97 + 237= 2,798 for RWD. The total I use for employee reservations is 4,689 units.
However, 2,798 RWD employee reservations are still more than 2,425. Therefore the question is still valid. This is related to SR/LR availability. SR is not available yet but the spreadsheet assumes all RWD versions are available now. This problem will go away once Tesla starts making the SR version, hopefully, next month. That means some of the employees will take delivery when the SR becomes available.
Last edited:
The calculation changes have bumped me back a single day compared to the previous estimate before we got the Q4 numbers. My delivery estimate is now March 28th. I’m in NJ, non-owner and reserved in store around 10:05 AM, just 5 minutes after they started taking reservations.
I have a good amount of confidence in Troy’s numbers. Assuming a lot of his assumptions are correct, my “global sequence number” is 16,508. Knowing that about 2,500 Model 3s have already been built and assuming that production will increase by at least 100 per week for Q1 then that puts the start of production for my Model 3 in early March.
Btw, if you have the Google Sheets app the spreadsheet works perfectly fine on mobile devices, at least on iOS.
I have a good amount of confidence in Troy’s numbers. Assuming a lot of his assumptions are correct, my “global sequence number” is 16,508. Knowing that about 2,500 Model 3s have already been built and assuming that production will increase by at least 100 per week for Q1 then that puts the start of production for my Model 3 in early March.
Btw, if you have the Google Sheets app the spreadsheet works perfectly fine on mobile devices, at least on iOS.
Troy need to update that estimator by 2 more months. Called in and delay is 2 months longer for dual motors minimum.
Kiss those tax incentives bye bye. Slower production=fewer who get incentives.
Kiss those tax incentives bye bye. Slower production=fewer who get incentives.
Garlan Garner
Banned
I thought Tesla just said that in the final week of 2017 that they were producing 100 cars per day.- upwards to 1K per week.
Are you tracking deliveries or production or invites or ?
Similar threads
- Article
