-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Ugh, says end of March for me. I hope it's off by at least a couple weeks as my lease ends mid-March.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Tesla says Dec-Feb. The spreadsheet says production in early March with a March 25 date. That means I'll have to sneak around for 3-4 weeks in my Camry since I don't want to pay $1500 in emissions repairs (temporary sticker expires 2/28) for a car that I'll only have for another few weeks.
My stats: Early morning line-waiter at Natick MA store, live in NH, non-owner, non-employee, choosing "First Production" now because of all the repairs my Camry needs.
My stats: Early morning line-waiter at Natick MA store, live in NH, non-owner, non-employee, choosing "First Production" now because of all the repairs my Camry needs.
Hi. Tesla will soon release their Q4 numbers. The Estimator is currently using 1,870 delivered and 2122 produced in Q4 2017. We will have a minor update when the actual numbers are released within a day or two.
Also, I will update the USA sales estimates. Currently, I'm calculating 162,813 US sales at the end of Q4 2017 and it looks like Tesla will hit 200K on 29 March 2018. I will update these estimates too. The insideevs.com website is also calculating US sales. They are estimating ~2,000 units less than I do. Tesla doesn't normally publish USA sales. The last number they published was for Q3 2016.
To summarize, if you are from the US and you want AWD but you are worried about losing out on the $7,500 federal tax credits, just wait because if Tesla hits 200,000 USA sales in Q1 2018, full credits will continue until the end of Q2 2018. If they hit 200K USA sales in Q2 2018, full credits will continue until the end of Q3 2018. So the deadline for $7,500 is either Jun 30, 2018, or Sep 30, 2018. We will find out which one probably after February and definitely after March.
Also, I will update the USA sales estimates. Currently, I'm calculating 162,813 US sales at the end of Q4 2017 and it looks like Tesla will hit 200K on 29 March 2018. I will update these estimates too. The insideevs.com website is also calculating US sales. They are estimating ~2,000 units less than I do. Tesla doesn't normally publish USA sales. The last number they published was for Q3 2016.
To summarize, if you are from the US and you want AWD but you are worried about losing out on the $7,500 federal tax credits, just wait because if Tesla hits 200,000 USA sales in Q1 2018, full credits will continue until the end of Q2 2018. If they hit 200K USA sales in Q2 2018, full credits will continue until the end of Q3 2018. So the deadline for $7,500 is either Jun 30, 2018, or Sep 30, 2018. We will find out which one probably after February and definitely after March.
If you're close with the 200K sale estimate then I can totally see Tesla holding off deliveries for a few days or even a week to hit the 200K number right at the start of Q2.
They can easily push the car toward east coast or put some into showroom demo or start sending them to Canada if they are within two weeks of reaching 200K
Callahan
Member
@Migdilio, the LR/SR difference is something that complicates the calculations too much. Therefore I didn't add this feature. Hopefully, Tesla will soon start making the Standard Range packs and get rid of the different estimates. The earliest Model 3 SR I have seen reported is Feb 2018 - Apr 2018.
Seeing multiple parking lots in CA with dozens/hundreds of model 3's, I can see how they could easily hold off for 4-5 days.
I'm not sure if Tesla is ready anywhere but CA to hold hundreds of cars, unless they just sent a few dozen cars to the 4 corners of the country to delay delivery.
Plus, a huge portion of us who who will get the car in Q1 know the deal, and when the ds tells us on say 3/24 that the next delivery is 4/1, we will understand. We want Tesla to do these types of things.
I'm not sure if Tesla is ready anywhere but CA to hold hundreds of cars, unless they just sent a few dozen cars to the 4 corners of the country to delay delivery.
Plus, a huge portion of us who who will get the car in Q1 know the deal, and when the ds tells us on say 3/24 that the next delivery is 4/1, we will understand. We want Tesla to do these types of things.
chojn1
Member
There are a whole lot of parking lots around the country where Tesla can preload with cars before 4/1 delivery. For a full quarter of future Tesla owners, model S and X included, it is the right thing to do.
Still the nice and vague Early 2018 for Standard Battery. I'm hoping "Early 2018" is just a sneaky way of upselling people to "First Production" and they'll actually be doing a bit of a mix.
Non-owner, wanting blue 3 SR with $5,000* heated mirrors
* Still nobody really knows for sure whether it'll require the PUP.
Non-owner, wanting blue 3 SR with $5,000* heated mirrors
* Still nobody really knows for sure whether it'll require the PUP.
or they could ship all S and x overseas without changing anything for 3 and done. Assuming they're still production constrained and delivery center constrained.
Similar threads
- Article
