ElecFan
Member
Aha, there is mr Short again. Right on time. I think tax incentives will be one of the few things that'll benefit. 200k will probably shift from Q1 to Q2, so three more months the full 7500 tax credit.
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ummgood
Member
I am still mid March for delivery. I figured that is what I would be because I have little hope of them hitting the Dec-Feb estimates.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
I filled out the spreadsheet and it estimates Feb 2019 for delivery. However, according to tesla.com it says May-July 2018. While I am sure I will see more delays from the tesla.com estimates that is a huge disparity in delivery estimates.
Has anyone else seen huge gaps in the delivery estimates?
Has anyone else seen huge gaps in the delivery estimates?
@insaneoctane, I'm glad you clarified that you saw 3,452 a while ago (more than a week ago) and not recently. I thought you saw it when you asked the question which would imply an error somewhere. The calculations are updated all the time. That was the old number a while ago. In the screenshot, it says Model 3 80 instead of Model 3 LR. That was more than a week ago.
@Chris Clark, can you enter your data here and then enter it again when Tesla updates their estimates? The big difference is probably related to Tesla overestimating RWD interest and under-estimating AWD.
@Chris Clark, can you enter your data here and then enter it again when Tesla updates their estimates? The big difference is probably related to Tesla overestimating RWD interest and under-estimating AWD.
Thanks @Migdilio. Cool. Then as I suspected when I saw my estimate it's probably a bit pessimistic as I want an LR. Hopefully I get mine a couple weeks sooner than the beginning of April estimate.
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Wow. I didn't realize that the tax incentive was based upon a ticking clock. For some silly reason I thought it was based upon the number of cars sold. Thanks for clearing that up.
Wow. I didn't realize that the tax incentive was based upon a ticking clock. For some silly reason I thought it was based upon the number of cars sold. Thanks for clearing that up.
Well technically it's both. First it's a number, and then it's a ticking clock.
Is it possible their concern is that while Model 3 numbers are ramping slower than expected, Model S and X production continues to grow and get sold, thus reducing from the overall 200,000 number that triggers the timed phase out?
Hi. Here is the latest situation about tax credits:
I'm calculating 162,967 S/X/3 at the end of 2017. The count starts on 1st Jan 2010. My guess is, Tesla sold 590 Roadsters after this date in the USA. So, the total with the Roadster is 163,557. If you check out the insideevs website, it shows 159,671 for the S/X/3. With the 590 Roadsters, that's 160,261. I expect 13,100 S/X deliveries in Q1 in the US and 19,928 Model 3 deliveries (out of 22,410 produced).
Based on my calculation, Tesla will hit 200K on April 6th, 2018. Based on my interpretation of insideevs' numbers, the date is April 15th, 2018. Therefore Q2 is very likely. I'm going to cautiously assume 80% likely. Here is the latest situation:
Pessimistic Scenario (20% likely) (If Tesla delivers more than 23,300 Model 3's in Q1 2018)
I'm calculating 162,967 S/X/3 at the end of 2017. The count starts on 1st Jan 2010. My guess is, Tesla sold 590 Roadsters after this date in the USA. So, the total with the Roadster is 163,557. If you check out the insideevs website, it shows 159,671 for the S/X/3. With the 590 Roadsters, that's 160,261. I expect 13,100 S/X deliveries in Q1 in the US and 19,928 Model 3 deliveries (out of 22,410 produced).
Based on my calculation, Tesla will hit 200K on April 6th, 2018. Based on my interpretation of insideevs' numbers, the date is April 15th, 2018. Therefore Q2 is very likely. I'm going to cautiously assume 80% likely. Here is the latest situation:
Pessimistic Scenario (20% likely) (If Tesla delivers more than 23,300 Model 3's in Q1 2018)
- $7,500 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2018
- $3,750 for deliveries until Dec 31, 2018
- $1,875 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2019
- $7,500 for deliveries until Sep 30, 2018
- $3,750 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2019
- $1,875 for deliveries until Sep 30, 2019
First and foremost, thank you OP for creating this estimator - I see you've put a lot of time into developing and maintaining it and I really appreciate it.
I was hoping you could help me understand a few things about my estimate:
1) Is the global reservation number taking into account west coasters? Since Tesla stores on the east coast opened before the west coast, is your assumption that someone who reserved at 10:05 AM in San Fran gets a better global reservation # than someone who reserved at 10:06 in Boston?
2) Can you help me understand where the 37,334 for Rear Wheel Drive option comes in?
3) Your trim level only supports 'Model 3 SR OR LR'.. Do we know anything about how standard range vs long range will affect delivery? If I have to wait another like 3 months because they're prioritizing people lower in the queue who want to get the LR, that would really suck for me as someone who wants the basic SR. I was the first person in line in my Tesla store and put 10:21 because my e-mail was delayed for some reason despite reserving at 10:05.
4) How do you get my global production seq no to be 16,604 when there were only 237 employees and 2583 reservations before me? I was allegedly 169th in my region, so how did I bump from 2989 to 16604?
Thank you in advance!
I was hoping you could help me understand a few things about my estimate:
1) Is the global reservation number taking into account west coasters? Since Tesla stores on the east coast opened before the west coast, is your assumption that someone who reserved at 10:05 AM in San Fran gets a better global reservation # than someone who reserved at 10:06 in Boston?
2) Can you help me understand where the 37,334 for Rear Wheel Drive option comes in?
3) Your trim level only supports 'Model 3 SR OR LR'.. Do we know anything about how standard range vs long range will affect delivery? If I have to wait another like 3 months because they're prioritizing people lower in the queue who want to get the LR, that would really suck for me as someone who wants the basic SR. I was the first person in line in my Tesla store and put 10:21 because my e-mail was delayed for some reason despite reserving at 10:05.
4) How do you get my global production seq no to be 16,604 when there were only 237 employees and 2583 reservations before me? I was allegedly 169th in my region, so how did I bump from 2989 to 16604?
Thank you in advance!
@Chris Clark , @Troy
I'm seeing a pretty big difference as well. Info entered in the Tesla.com estimates tab.
LR estimate on Model 3 Delivery Estimator - 4 Dec 18 Delivery
LR estimate on Tesla.com - Apr - Jun 2018
I'm seeing a pretty big difference as well. Info entered in the Tesla.com estimates tab.
LR estimate on Model 3 Delivery Estimator - 4 Dec 18 Delivery
LR estimate on Tesla.com - Apr - Jun 2018
Yep I did it 3 time. I'm wondering if it is because I use open office. What do you get when you put in owner?
I can replicate his results. If I do Dec 31, 2017, 10AM, Non-CA west coast, Tesla Owner, I get 20th Feb, 2018.
Done via a PC and Google Drive.
No problem. If I use the same parameters but change it to owner I get 25 Aug 18. So must be Open Office.
Edit. The year changes to 2019 when I put non owner. Missed that one! But still I wonder if the owner estimate I'm getting is accurate (Feb 20th 2018)???
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