UZJedi
Member
Owner status bumps you to the front of the line. Tesla should be done delivering to most owners that want RWD by then, so it looks right to me.
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Owner status bumps you to the front of the line. Tesla should be done delivering to most owners that want RWD by then, so it looks right to me.
I was assuming it was opening it in open office. But I missed that in all of the excitement. It is also using google drive and I am on a PC.
Seems to be right based on my estimate of Dec 18 and I'm a non-owner. But it doesn't align with Tesla.com estimate of Apr - Jun 2018 so hopefully Tesla is more accurate, but I'm not confident. Also, I would think Owner would be earlier than Aug, even if you just reserved in Dec 2017.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
@Troy, I noticed that your spreadsheet makes some assumptions about how the deliveries will take place across the country. Specifically, you make assumptions that California will not be serviced entirely first, but rather with some higher priority. This results in cars being distributed throughout the country before California is finished. While I'm not here to disagree, I would like to know where you got your assumptions for this approach and ask you how strongly you feel that Tesla will, in fact, deliver in the fashion you've modeled. Sorry if this was covered somewhere in the past 59 pages....
Got it, so Tesla is definitely more conservative than Troy's spreadsheet. For both of us, hopefully it's sooner.
Garlan Garner
Banned
Long range and Standard range (310 vs 220 miles, $44k vs $35k , respectively)
mcghee33
Member
The assumption was they would make more cars then the service centers can fulfill in cali. This became true today when Tesla sent invites out to some owners across the country including the east coast.
Doesn't really matter where he came up with it we are currently witnessing it happening for previous owners. Just read through some of the invitation threads.
This is only my intuition -- but as a Tesla owner who just reserved @ the end of December 2017 -- I think less priority is now being given to prior Model S/X owners who reserved recently. If this turns out to be true, I would be fine with it, as others have been waiting much longer than me. Again, just pure speculation.
Let's assume there are 37,334 RWD reservations in your region and your place corresponds to 5.07% .th on that list. Therefore your regional queue number would be 37,334 * 0.0507= 1893. To calculate that I needed to know the 5.07% percentage. This percentage needs to work so that you are 0.01% if you reserve as soon as the stores open. Therefore you need to enter your local time if you reserved in store so I can figure out if you have reserved as soon as the stores opened.
It comes from cell L7 on the Data tab here. We know the reservation count because it was released by Tesla. From there I calculated reservations from Eastern states based on what percentage of Model S sales are from that region compared to global sales. Then I calculated RWD/AWD preference based on the model3tracker survey.
The LR/SR difference is something that complicates the calculations too much. Therefore I didn't add this feature. Hopefully, Tesla will soon start making the Standard Range packs and get rid of the different estimates. The earliest Model 3 SR I have seen reported is Feb 2018 - Apr 2018.
I'm calculating that 2989 .th RWD car in Eastern states corresponds to 16,604 .th Model 3 globally because they start with California and move from west to east. Cell H810 here shows the global count while cell L810 shows the local count. Watch those numbers as you scroll up.
In a blog post Tesla said: "we will begin deliveries in North America starting on the West Coast, moving east. As we continue to ramp production, we will begin deliveries in Europe, APAC and right-hand drive markets." Source
Yes, that's correct. A Tesla owner reserving a Model 3 today is expected to get priority over line-waiters. If you change to non-owner, you will immediately go from the front to the back of the entire queue. However, be aware that if you enter 31 March 2016 instead of today and select owner or non-owner, you won't see much of a difference because in this case, the owner is already in front of the queue. Owner/non-owner difference is more if you reserve now but less for early reservations.
@hpartsch, @whatthe2, if you see something unusual, add a screenshot of the problem. Owner priority will move you to the front of the queue regardless of your reservation time or when you became an owner.
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I'm pretty sure the regional priorities will work like this because you can look at Tesla's delivery estimates and see how it works. In the screenshot, you can see that many Central or Eastern reservations show the same estimate as the earliest CA. As the reservation time increases, the estimate changes from Dec to Jan. That shows there is actually a calculation behind this and they are not just displaying the same thing to everybody.
I created the Estimator in September 2016 and there were no Tesla estimates at that time. Therefore at that time, my assumption was based on common sense. If you look at the message here from October 2016, you can see that I was expecting 2 weeks gaps between regions. My idea was that it wouldn't make sense to overwhelm CA delivery centers with huge numbers while the rest of the US is not delivering any Model 3s. I thought a team from Tesla would travel from region to region and inspect every delivery center before giving the green light. That would take some time but not that much time.
Now I watch the invites to see how it works. Check out column C here. I might need to change owner priorities. I assumed owners would have priority in their region once deliveries start there. However, it looks like Tesla is not waiting for that. They are shipping owner cars anywhere in the US now. Again look at column C on that spreadsheet. I think they are not waiting for delivery centers to be ready because owner cars can be delivered together with S/X anywhere in the US. The numbers are not that big. Only 7% of reservations are from existing owners.
You might say if owner priorities work differently, why didn't you change it until now? Because this is new. The data was added in the last 24 hours. A new batch of invites went out yesterday. Look at the dates in column H.
Here is a map of 24 owners who received invites in the latest batch on 4 January 2018. I assumed the owner priority would only move you to the front of your regional queue and you would still have to wait until Tesla starts production for that region. However, they are not doing this. As you can see, owners from East Coast are getting priority now over line-waiters from California. I need to change how owner priorities work.
The data is from Column B&C here and B&C on the "Not yet configuring" tab. I used this website to create the map.
The data is from Column B&C here and B&C on the "Not yet configuring" tab. I used this website to create the map.
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