Only Tesla knows, but that hasn't stopped people from posting very precise numbers. My estimate is a very precise sounding 161,323.14159265359
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For science, I just put in a reservation tonight (no prior reservations). I am a current Model S owner. My current estimate for all types is "Late 2018". I will update the group should my status change.
I'm calculating 161,955 S/X/3 at the end of 2017. The count to 200K starts on 1 Jan 2010. I have calculated that 590 Roadsters should be included. That brings the US total to 162,545 at the end of 2017 including S/X/3/Roadster. InsideEVs estimates 159,671 without the Roadster. If we add 590 Roadsters we get 160,261 at the end of 2017. The estimates are pretty close. I don't know which one is more accurate.
In Q1 2018, I estimate 13,100 S/X and ~18,000 Model 3 deliveries which bring the total to 193,645 based on my calculation. Therefore 200K in early Q2 2018 is pretty much guaranteed. My current calculation shows 18 Apr 2018 for the 200K day. That means $7,500 will last for deliveries until 30 Sep 2018.
I have a spreadsheet here that calculates a daily number for US sales. Today it shows 171,719 units. However, if it makes some people happier, we can call it a more casual sounding 170K.
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Wshowell
Member
Reserved 4/2, existing owner located in Ca. Received invite to configure today. I’ll be deferring until white interior and/or standard battery.
Hi, everybody. I have received some criticism from people who said if owner deliveries were going that well more owners would have received invites who reserved after day 1. But it appears day 1 reservation rate was very high among owners in the US. Here is some interesting data from the model3tracker survey:
I have looked at the first 8 days from 31 March to 7 April 2016. Within these 8 days, 44.3% of reservations happened on 31 March 2016 based on Tesla's global numbers. However, Model3Tracker survey shows 79.9% for day 1 reservations by US owners.
By the way, the next batch of invites is expected on 30 January 2018. The gap was 13 days between 22 Dec and 4 Jan batches. Then it was again 13 days between 4 Jan and 17 Jan batches. The owner delivery rate for the current configuration is 30%. On 30 Jan, it will be 40%. I don't think we will see any non-owner invites on 30 Jan.
On 13 February, the owner delivery rate is expected to be 75%. Therefore some of the 13 February invites should include non-owners or they should add more options like more interior colors, standard range or non-PUP. I have no idea whether Tesla will add more options first or sent invites to non-owners first. There are good arguments for both cases.
This is what I said in the predictions thread a few days ago. I wish I had said 15 Feb, instead of 10 Feb. I might lose that one by a few days.
- I predict that by 10 Feb 2018 Tesla will either make the Model 3 SR available in the configurator or they will make the AWD available or they will send out the first batch of invites to non-owners.
Given owners who reserved in 2017 can now configure, does this change your prediction?
My prediction is that we'll see the first non-owner config invites in 2 weeks. According to the invite spreadsheet only about 16% of owners are still waiting on config invites. Perhaps there's a chance that some of us non-owners with Dec-Feb estimates may actually receive their Model 3 before the end of February? I'm not expecting mine until March at the earliest.
I hope that is true as I want to order LR+PUP ASAP.
I wonder when they will announce availability of SR ? That will change things a lot once it is available.
Also, I wish they would tell us performance specs on the AWD. Not, that I would wait for it, but I am really curious.
I wonder when they will announce availability of SR ? That will change things a lot once it is available.
Also, I wish they would tell us performance specs on the AWD. Not, that I would wait for it, but I am really curious.
suwaneedad
Member
Agree; any increase in the options available will result in non-owners being delayed further in configuring as owners who deferred 're-jump' to the head of the line. This is going to be interesting to watch play out, as Tesla balances a desire to reward owners, and to get new configurations first in the hands of more-forgiving Tesla owners before less-forgiving non-owners. Not to mention some of the anticipated features (AWD, for example) will be higher margin and therefore reasonably a higher priority for Tesla (particularly relative to SR). As a 4/1 non-owner reservationist, I'm cool with all of the prioritizing/bumping, as long as I still get my paws on the $7500 tax credit. If that lapses, I may rethink the whole purchase decision period. Currently I'm slotted for Mar-May by Tesla, and early July by @Troy. So there's a few months of cushion in there before my sweet kiss from Uncle Sam goes up in flames.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Anyone know how this is possible? All projected production numbers that I've seen shows Tesla can't produce enough model 3s in all of 2018 to fulfill the current backlog???
Since this should be the end of the line and I'd estimate U.S. reservations between 200-250k, it seems such a delivery estimate assumes they will hit 10k/week production well before the end of year.
With 5k/week they would not even reach 200k by EOY, considering they want to end Q1 at 2.5k/week.
He did say this:
Elon Musk said:
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JBare
Member
I'm also interested in the specs/price for dual motor on a short range. As a non-owner who waited in line on March 31 in Virginia I don't think I'll have the option to wait for AWD if I want the full tax credit (although it might be dicey in the first place as I am not looking to go LR)
suwaneedad
Member
But why rush to buy an LR with extended range that you don't want, for $9k, in order to obtain a $7.5k tax credit?
Future resale value? (Since you would only be paying $5.2k for a $9k option.) Even better if the SR certain comes after the second step down of the tax credit.
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