Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[UZJedi]

Non-owner, east coast, Boston, MA store - first person who reserved and I got my invite earlier today.

Spent a lot of time thinking about it. I really just can't justify paying an extra $9k for extended battery and an additional $5k for the premium upgrades - it's just not worth an additional $14k to get it sooner.. If the Dual motor option woudl be an extra $4k I would think that actually IS worth it, but for getting 30% more battery for an extra 26% cost is just not worth it to me given my typical use case. The premium upgrades are certainly NOT worth $5k - their sound system seemed pretty standard to be honest (and I work in the Automotive electronics/infotainment industry). Don't get me wrong, I still LOVE Tesla and their mission and fully intend to buy either the SR or SR Dual motor. I just really hope it comes sooner than later. I think far fewer people will get the first production LR units than they anticipate which hopefully means that AWD and SR models will start delivering earlier than anticipated.

Anyone have thoughts on this??

For a lot of people, including myself, the federal tax credit is a factor. If I order a First Production vehicle, I am certain to get the full tax credit. If I go for AWD, I am right on the cusp of getting bumped to half the credit, according to Troy's estimator. And if I wait for SR, it could easily be 1/4 the credit or possibly none. I also have a Washington State credit that I have a shot at (may not be renewed) if I take delivery ASAP. For me, it's worth it to get those full credits because I am maximizing my value. If all the configurations were available now, I might take a different route. But considering the tax credit, I have to act ASAP.

 

[suwaneedad]

For a lot of people, including myself, the federal tax credit is a factor. If I order a First Production vehicle, I am certain to get the full tax credit. If I go for AWD, I am right on the cusp of getting bumped to half the credit, according to Troy's estimator. And if I wait for SR, it could easily be 1/4 the credit or possibly none. I also have a Washington State credit that I have a shot at (may not be renewed) if I take delivery ASAP. For me, it's worth it to get those full credits because I am maximizing my value. If all the configurations were available now, I might take a different route. But considering the tax credit, I have to act ASAP.

Indeed, in this case (assuming you're sitting on an invitation to configure) the most important thing to monitor becomes time from config to delivery. After adding some buffer, you can figure out when you need to make your drop dead decision to configure. For example, right now Tesla is saying 3-6 weeks until delivery. So let's say you want to add buffer due to TeslaTime and make your configuration three months prior to the federal credit beginning to ramp down. If that ramp down is set to begin 10/1/18, as is currently the expectation, you'd want to configure three months prior...using whatever options are available at that time. I'm viewing it as my federal tax credit paying for my PUP/paint/19s, because I want LR and these other components are less important to me...but they're 'free' since funded by the $7500. Good luck!!

 

[gregincal]

I just checked my tesla page, now it’s showing for Dual motor is available with 220 or 310 miles, my time is Mid 2018. Seems the SR AWD will be available in Mid 2018 also

It's always said that, but we'll see when they actually offer each config.

 

[gambit48]

Mine says Late 2018 for both the SR and dual motor. And I'm a 1st day line waiter non-owner (roughly 10:30 AM and maybe 250-300th person in line).

 

[kbM3]

- their sound system seemed pretty standard to be honest (and I work in the Automotive electronics/infotainment industry).

Anyone have thoughts on this??

Everything I’ve read said the premium sound system is great.

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody. A few days ago I talked about the second and third box shown in Tesla's estimator:

I see AWD and Standard Range as two separate options that will become selectable in the design studio. Imagine a checkbox that says AWD. They will add that in Mid-2018. What does this say about short range vs long range? Nothing. That's a different checkbox that will be added later.

Now, Tesla has changed the configurator to show exactly that. There is now a box that says Standard range and another box that says AWD. Both boxes are greyed out for now. Check out the new configurator here. What this means is, Late-2018 shown under the AWD box is only about the AWD option and Early 2019 is about the Standard battery.

Then why does it say 220 mi in the third box if the SRD is not going to become available in Late 2018? Because this is just some additional information they have thrown in to acknowledge the existence of SRD. The third box means AWD will be a selectable option in the configurator in Late 2018 and by the way, the AWD cars come in two variants. In short, you won't be able to select SRD before the Standard range battery becomes available.

The SRD is comparable to the Model S 75D in terms of range. I'm calculating only 3 miles difference between these cars. If Tesla uses the 220 mi and 310 mi numbers for the SRD and LRD, these two cars will have the most under-advertised range numbers among all Teslas. Both would be under advertised by 11%. See the table here. The green column shows the unmodified EPA range which corresponds to the real world range at 61 mph.

 

[McFlurri]

@Troy - I am curious as to where you have confirmed that the AWD option pertaining to the Standard Range variant will not be selectable at the same time as the Long Range variant.

Do you have additional information from Tesla that we don't know about yet? or are you predicting this to be the case?

I'm just pointing this out to you as there are a lot of people on this forum who may take your word as fact.. when it's actually your prediction.

The evidence presented to us all at this time is that the AWD version will be available for both 220 mile and 310 mile (Mid-2018). This could be true, or it could be as you predict. But please be careful how you word things.



Now... to prepare myself for the influx of "Disagree"

 

[EVNow]

I also have a Washington State credit that I have a shot at (may not be renewed) if I take delivery ASAP

I almost forgot about that. The sales tax exemption is worth about $3k. Do you know where they are on that (like how many are left) ?

 

[Dr. J]

@Troy - I am curious as to where you have confirmed that the AWD option pertaining to the Standard Range variant will not be selectable at the same time as the Long Range variant.

Do you have additional information from Tesla that we don't know about yet? or are you predicting this to be the case?

I'm just pointing this out to you as there are a lot of people on this forum who may take your word as fact.. when it's actually your prediction.

The evidence presented to us all at this time is that the AWD version will be available for both 220 mile and 310 mile (Mid-2018). This could be true, or it could be as you predict. But please be careful how you word things.



Now... to prepare myself for the influx of "Disagree"

Not disagreeing, but it seems reasonable that when dual motor/AWD is released, there either will be only an LR version of AWD available, or else the SR single motor version will be available as well. Why would Tesla make SR available initially only in the dual motor version? Maybe for higher margin, I suppose. But then it becomes obvious they really don't want to sell a $35,000 car. Any time soon.

 

[McFlurri]

Not disagreeing, but it seems reasonable that when dual motor/AWD is released, there either will be only an LR version of AWD available, or else the SR single motor version will be available as well. Why would Tesla make SR available initially only in the dual motor version? Maybe for higher margin, I suppose. But then it becomes obvious they really don't want to sell a $35,000 car. Any time soon.

I think that is precisely why. It's all about the margin. I predict we will see the Standard Range AWD variant before the RWD because of the higher margin. I also predict that when you select AWD you will still be forced with the Premium Upgrades Package.

Again.. I could be wrong, but based simply off of what has been presented to us... we will have the "choice of 220 mile or 310 mile" come (for me at least) in Mid-2018

 

[Troy]

@McFlurri

Check out the Model 3 configurator in this video. Here is a screenshot:

You won't be able to select SRD when the AWD checkbox becomes available because SRD requires selecting both checkboxes that are greyed out in this screenshot.

The evidence presented to us all at this time is that the AWD version will be available for both 220 mile and 310 mile (Mid-2018).

I think you are misreading it. The text about 220 and 310 mi variants is additional information that is not connected to the timeline.

 

[McFlurri]

@McFlurri

Check out the new Model 3 configurator in this video. Here is a screenshot:

You won't be able to select SRD when the AWD checkbox becomes available because SRD requires selecting box checkboxes that are greyed out in this screenshot.


You are misreading it. Check out my previous message again.

@Troy

I was unaware of the new Model 3 Configurator. I do appreciate you posting this.

Perhaps there could be 2 things that could happen.

- Tesla may simply update the configurator so when you select AWD, the Standard Battery becomes available? (right now the option is greyed out and says "Late 2018" because the RWD option is currently selected. But it's not that difficult to make it so when someone chooses the AWD drivetrain, that the Stardard Battery option becomes selectable). I also personally believe this to be true because of the three options available to us, The Standard Battery option specifically mentions 220 mile range with Rear Wheel Drive (Early 2019 for us Canuks)

- Or, you could be right in your prediction that they will come out at the same time.

If you are correct, then Tesla should not have wrote "choice of 220 mile or 310 mile" Mid-2018... rather, it should say "310 mile Mid-2018, 220 mile coming upon Standard Range release" .. or something of that nature...

 

[Troy]

I want to correct something. Apparently, this is not a recent change. Here is a video from 24 Dec. It doesn't show the two checkboxes that are greyed out. Here is another video from 21 Jan. It shows the two checkboxes. I actually saw the second video in January and even commented on youtube at that time but I forgot about it during the discussion a few days ago. I was imagining two separate checkboxes to select AWD and Standard range a few days ago. I thought this might be something Tesla could add but it was actually something they had already added. Anyway, this doesn't change anything.

 

[gregincal]

@Troy

I was unaware of the new Model 3 Configurator. I do appreciate you posting this.

Perhaps there could be 2 things that could happen.

- Tesla may simply update the configurator so when you select AWD, the Standard Battery becomes available? (right now the option is greyed out and says "Late 2018" because the RWD option is currently selected. But it's not that difficult to make it so when someone chooses the AWD drivetrain, that the Stardard Battery option becomes selectable). I also personally believe this to be true because of the three options available to us, The Standard Battery option specifically mentions 220 mile range with Rear Wheel Drive (Early 2019 for us Canuks)

- Or, you could be right in your prediction that they will come out at the same time.

If you are correct, then Tesla should not have wrote "choice of 220 mile or 310 mile" Mid-2018... rather, it should say "310 mile Mid-2018, 220 mile coming upon Standard Range release" .. or something of that nature...

You’re right, they should have said that, but Tesla has this sort of thing all the time. I just would advise you not to take that text as a promise that they will release AWD SR before the end of the year.

 

[McFlurri]

You’re right, they should have said that, but Tesla has this sort of thing all the time. I just would advise you not to take that text as a promise that they will release AWD SR before the end of the year.

Absolutely agree.

My main point was making sure that we do not state things as fact before we know for sure that what we are saying is 100% accurate.

I do personally believe that we will see the AWD SR before the RWD SR due to the wider margins on the car, and the apparent evidence that is presented to us via the Tesla Delivery Estimator. However you are definitely correct.. Tesla likes to change things with little to 0 notice *cough Alcantara Headliner cough*

 

[Mariner022]

I almost forgot about that. The sales tax exemption is worth about $3k. Do you know where they are on that (like how many are left) ?

Guaranteed to be available thru April 30. There is a bill before the legislature with bipartisan and Governor support to extend the credit....

 

[EVNow]

I do personally believe that we will see the AWD SR before the RWD SR due to the wider margins on the car,

Not just that - the premium upgrade will be the last to come off. After everyone has been invited to configure with the PUP in 2020 or so.

 

[juanmedina]

Not just that - the premium upgrade will be the last to come off. After everyone has been invited to configure with the PUP in 2020 or so.

You are probably right. I really wish not because I rather spend the $5000 on something else.

 

[McFlurri]

Not just that - the premium upgrade will be the last to come off. After everyone has been invited to configure with the PUP in 2020 or so.

I think that is precisely why. It's all about the margin. I predict we will see the Standard Range AWD variant before the RWD because of the higher margin. I also predict that when you select AWD you will still be forced with the Premium Upgrades Package.

Again.. I could be wrong, but based simply off of what has been presented to us... we will have the "choice of 220 mile or 310 mile" come (for me at least) in Mid-2018

To be fair though... I don't think Tesla will wait THAT long for the standard interior.. but I definitely get what you mean.

 

[ezevphl]

You are probably right. I really wish not because I rather spend the $5000 on something else.

I hope that isn't the case. I just wish there was some official clarification to that.
I'm not looking for the 35k version, I'll take the LR, but don't want the premium upgrades.
I have a feeling by the time the non premium version is available the tax credit will be gone.