Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[ℬête Noire]

Deliveries right now have almost completely stopped. Not sure what is going on.

Maybe a logistics pipeline? Houston person w/VIN & order has been told 60 cars are coming here shortly: Texas Hold Up!

Then check the next post after that, suggestion that Tesla is shifting to using rail transport. Which makes sense because that’s a lot cheaper than truck if you can fill a rail car to a given destination. Down side is it’ll spend longer in transit, because of how inter regional works on rail.

Prior info from Las Vegas was Tesla is using a staging hub in Lathrop. If that’s a rail loading operation, that they dumped the backed up Fremont yard to it starts making sense.

 

[kengchang]

Pretty big location but don't really see any rail service for car transportation close by.

 

[Troy]

@GDNTX, the problem you reported here about normalizing time zone differences should be fixed now.

 

[ChrisH]

the estimate is veryyyyy optimistic. i think if they put the reality of "order your car today and take delivery in 2-2.5 years" people wouldnt order even hahah.

This makes sense haha.if I can get my car in the first half of 2019 that would make me happy.

 

[suwaneedad]

In that case, it would mean, "we don't want to think about this right now, we will let you know later".

Perhaps "Beyond Early 2019" is nomenclature Tesla ought to adopt at some point. Cheeky (to me), and a modest tip of the hat to Star Trek 'Beyond' fans.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Pretty big location but don't really see any rail service for car transportation close by.View attachment 283386

If that was addressing me, that looks like a sort of office building (check Street view, it shows it under construction). No real parking lot. There's a Union Pacific line running through to the east of there a couple miles, from the SW and wings up N towards Stockton. *shrug* I don't see anything obvious along it but I don't know the area. The bigger yards are up inside Stockon limits.

 

[david_42]

Anyone want to start a poll about whether or not the SR will ever be available? With the latest push out to 2019, I'm having serious doubts.

As a stock holder, I'm fine with Tesla going for higher margin configurations.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Anyone want to start a poll about whether or not the SR will ever be available? With the latest push out to 2019, I'm having serious doubts.

As a stock holder, I'm fine with Tesla going for higher margin configurations.

*looks for the 'dead horse' gif*



That misguided speculation has overrun plenty of threads and I've seen at least one actual poll thread started on it here. The SR is coming.

 

[GDNTX]

@GDNTX, the problem you reported here about normalizing time zone differences should be fixed now.

Thanks Troy - appreciate it, and good news. My online reservation stayed right where it was, I was afraid the online reservations were the ones off by 2 hours, so my place in line still holds where it was. Appreciate all the work you do with your analytics and spreadsheets/documentation.

 

[diamond.g]

*looks for the 'dead horse' gif*



That misguided speculation has overrun plenty of threads and I've seen at least one actual poll thread started on it here. The SR is coming.

"3 maybe 6 months"

 

[ℬête Noire]

"3 maybe 6 months"

"When" is certainly an unknown that's in a state of flux.

 

[ChrisH]

Finally got a chance to use this estimator. June 25, 2019 with the $3750 tax refund estimated to end June 30th......Please be accurate (or earlier for delivery) on both accounts haha.

This is for a non-owner who wants a SR and reserved on 2/23. Apparently only 11 people who want the same battery reserved after me (estimated). Very cool calculator/tool.

EDIT: Shoot. Read it wrong...only a 1% chance the $3750 refund lasts that long....more likely a $1875 refund. I will still take it!

EDIT 2: Says I could have a LR delivered in November of this year and get the half refund. Seems so crazy to me that I could have waited until Feb 2018 to reserve and still get a 3 this year if I am willing to pay for long range!



Can I ask how the estimator estimates that there are a certain amount of reservations based on type? (47,899 SR and 116,063 LR) ....or do I just need to go back to the first post and read? haha

 

[GDNTX]

Finally got a chance to use this estimator. June 25, 2019 with the $3750 tax refund estimated to end June 30th......Please be accurate (or earlier for delivery) on both accounts haha.

This is for a non-owner who wants a SR and reserved on 2/23. Apparently only 11 people who want the same battery reserved after me (estimated). Very cool calculator/tool.

EDIT: Shoot. Read it wrong...only a 1% chance the $3750 refund lasts that long....more likely a $1875 refund. I will still take it!

EDIT 2: Says I could have a LR delivered in November of this year and get the half refund. Seems so crazy to me that I could have waited until Feb 2018 to reserve and still get a 3 this year if I am willing to pay for long range!



Can I ask how the estimator estimates that there are a certain amount of reservations based on type? (47,899 SR and 116,063 LR) ....or do I just need to go back to the first post and read? haha

There are several people that have tracked every word that ever came out of a mouth at Tesla. They have pieced it all together and putting the puzzle together best they can, it is drawing a pretty accurate picture. Just trust them.

 

[ChrisH]

There are several people that have tracked every word that ever came out of a mouth at Tesla. They have pieced it all together and putting the puzzle together best they can, it is drawing a pretty accurate picture. Just trust them.

Sounds good to me. Interestingly, the Late 2018 Tesla estimate for a first production LR for me lines up with this estimator (late Nov), but Tesla projects “early 2019” for a SR for me. The estimator says June 2019 (which honestly is probably more realistic haha)

 

[vinnie97]

So...I'm straddling 2 time zones as far as the estimator is concerned (I reserved in pacific but delivery, if offered, will be in mountain, I assume; otherwise, I might pick it up in pacific aka Vegas). If I enter my estimated reservation time in pacific, the configuration date is a full week earlier (3-7-18) than if I enter my reservation in mountain time (3-14-18). The sticking point is my production # does not automatically adjust if I change delivery time zones, but if I attempt to account for the hour difference in mountain (12:30 p.m.) versus pacific (11:30 a.m.), my production # falls by approximately 2000 positions (along with a concomitantly later configuration date). Which is the more accurate reservation time to use, pacific or mountain?

 

[Reddy Kilowatt]

Pretty big location but don't really see any rail service for car transportation close by.

Auto trans-loading sites are fairly large sites, similar to shipping docks. (recalling the recent shot of all the Tesla's heading to China) The will go to one of these trans-load facilities and then load them on a truck and transfer them to the dealer. Local haulers running back and forth all day. The RR's no long deliver to your door step unless your running through a lot of car loads every day.

Since Tesla cut up the tracks going into the factory aren't they Trans-loading the cars in Richmond. Getting that last test drive done before shipping. They could possibly do the same on the dealers end if it was real close.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I'd love to be able to place my order for 3LRD in July, delivery in August.....

We shall see.....

 

[kengchang]

Auto trans-loading sites are fairly large sites, similar to shipping docks. (recalling the recent shot of all the Tesla's heading to China) The will go to one of these trans-load facilities and then load them on a truck and transfer them to the dealer. Local haulers running back and forth all day. The RR's no long deliver to your door step unless your running through a lot of car loads every day.

Since Tesla cut up the tracks going into the factory aren't they Trans-loading the cars in Richmond. Getting that last test drive done before shipping. They could possibly do the same on the dealers end if it was real close.

This was attempt to find the staging site in Lathrop

 

[AMIYY4YOU]

I'd love to be able to place my order for 3LRD in July, delivery in August.....

We shall see.....

why do you want a dual motor? I can't understand why people are willing to pay an extra $5k for a marginally faster 0-60 time?

 

[coconutboy84]

why do you want a dual motor? I can't understand why people are willing to pay an extra $5k for a marginally faster 0-60 time?[/QUOTE

Ummm you know that is not the main purpose of AWD right? lol