Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[pmich80]

Hey Troy,

Noticed Canadian configurations and delivery have been pushed back until June. Is this because of the recent opening for 1st in line reservations opening up last week. I assume all those configurations are typing up deliveries for the next few months.

Do you think they'll still delay 200,000th delivery until July 1st based on all the recent new configuations opening up.?

 

[Troy]

Calculations have been updated. To do that, I have processed Tesla.com estimates as reported on the invites spreadsheet. Here are some charts I created today. You can find these on the Delivery tab here. These charts turned out to be very useful because now I don't have to guess how to balance the percentages.

For example, it shows 66% of US non-owners are expected to get their SR cars in Late 2018 and the rest in Early 2019. I tried to match these as close as possible. In this case, I have 60% instead of 66% because my production estimates are slightly lower than Tesla's. I have increased the cancellation rate slightly and reduced the owner percentage slightly. I have done more research on all of these issues. I think the Estimator is now more accurate than it has ever been.

 

[Troy]

@pmich80,
If you look at the first and third table in my previous message, it shows Late-2018 for 10% of First production and 11% of AWD reservations from Canada. ~90% is Mid-2018. Tesla didn't send out any invites to Canada on 22 Feb. All the invites went to the US. They will be busy for a while with US orders.

I understand that people in Canada want to take delivery by the end of June because the Ontario rebate might be at risk after that. However, because Tesla.com estimates show Late-2018 for 10%, I can't leave July, August and September blank. It can't look like this:

20% Apr
35% May
35% Jun
0% Jul
0% Aug
0% Sep
3% Oct
4% Nov
3% Dec

I will update Canada estimates when there is new information. Cheers

 

[ggies07]

Calculations have been updated. To do that, I have processed Tesla.com estimates as reported on the invites spreadsheet. Here are some charts I created today. You can find these on the Delivery tab here. These charts turned out to be very useful because now I don't have to guess how to balance the percentages.

For example, it shows 66% of US non-owners are expected to get their SR cars in Late 2018 and the rest in Early 2019. I tried to match these as close as possible. In this case, I have 60% instead of 66% because my production estimates are slightly lower than Tesla's. I have increased the cancellation rate slightly and reduced the owner percentage slightly. I have done more research on all of these issues. I think the Estimator is now more accurate than it has ever been.

Hey @Troy

I tried again and this lines up better now. I reserved at 1:30pm CT and Tesla's official site says "Late '18" for SR now and your estimator came out with 11/3....which would be nice. I have Mar-May for First production as well.

 

[PoitNarf]

@Troy just a point of reference, I configured on the 22nd while your estimator now says my configuration invite would come on March 1st, one week later than my actual invite. Before the most recent update your estimator was predicting my invite to come tomorrow, Feb 27th. It also says that my estimated delivery date is April 5th. Since I got my invite a week before your latest version of the estimator is predicting I'm also hoping that my delivery date will be about a week earlier than your estimate which would be 5 weeks after I placed my order last week.

 

[ℬête Noire]

@Troy just a point of reference, I configured on the 22nd while your estimator now says my configuration invite would come on March 1st, one week later than my actual invite. Before the most recent update your estimator was predicting my invite to come tomorrow, Feb 27th. It also says that my estimated delivery date is April 5th. Since I got my invite a week before your latest version of the estimator is predicting I'm also hoping that my delivery date will be about a week earlier than your estimate which would be 5 weeks after I placed my order last week.

Note that I don't believe the spreadsheet is lumping the dates towards ((EDIT:Wednesdays)), as Tesla has been doing so far (but may not continue to do as volumes increase). That creates a discontinuity where a small change in line creates a full week discrepancy.

So it can be "right" and still look like it's off by 6 days early, or "very close" and look like it's a week late.

 

[FlyNavy01]

Is there any specific reason/new source that caused the P version to be pushed back 5 months until Feb 2019 in the estimator? Last week the estimator said Sep 2018 for me.... I thought Tesla was prioritizing high margin vehicles?

If they make me wait another full year from my configuration invite date last Thursday until delivery, I certainly will not be giving them that extra money and will go with LRD instead. Hoping that's not the case obviously!

 

[Troy]

Hi, @FlyNavy01.
Before this last update, the P version was sooner because Tesla was focusing on profit margins. Delaying SR and prioritizing AWD were the reasons why I moved the P version sooner. However, they are now showing Late-2018 for 95% of AWD deliveries and we haven't heard anything about the P version yet. Does this 95% include the P? It is hard to believe it does.

The more time passes without hearing more about the P version, the less likely it is it will start production together with the non-performance version. Also, Tesla has hardly improved the production rate since the beginning of this year. With so many problems going on, it is less likely they will introduce the P and non-P AWD version at the same time. Because the production problems are not resolved yet and Tesla is still below 1,000/week, I'm less confident about the P version starting production this year. I'm watching developments.

 

[vinnie97]

@Troy just a point of reference, I configured on the 22nd while your estimator now says my configuration invite would come on March 1st, one week later than my actual invite. Before the most recent update your estimator was predicting my invite to come tomorrow, Feb 27th. It also says that my estimated delivery date is April 5th. Since I got my invite a week before your latest version of the estimator is predicting I'm also hoping that my delivery date will be about a week earlier than your estimate which would be 5 weeks after I placed my order last week.

I'm right behind you with a config date of 3-5-18. I hope the current ahead scheduling for line-waiters holds.

 

[vadhris]

any folks who reserved online got any notification from Tesla regarding model 3?

 

[2170pwr]

any folks who reserved online got any notification from Tesla regarding model 3?

not yet. I'm one of the few with an online reservation with March-May delivery window(i reserved the first 30secs online orders were available and I live in CA). I assume my confirmation email will come once they work through most, if not all, of the line waiters. My guess our invites won't start until about late march/early april but it depends on the production ramp so nobody really knows.

 

[vadhris]

not yet. I'm one of the few with an online reservation with March-May delivery window(i reserved the first 30secs online orders were available and I live in CA). I assume my confirmation email will come once they work through most, if not all, of the line waiters. My guess our invites won't start until about late march/early april but it depends on the production ramp so nobody really knows.

me too - I did in the first 1-2 mins online

 

[tpatana]

I have sport every Thursday 7p-9p (Seattle, PST), so I couldn't make the order until I was back home. I was sad.

That's why May-July.

 

[Runt8]

@Troy - I had an extended test drive of a Model S last week and tried to pick the brain of the employee as much as I could. One thing he mentioned is that Tesla started a new delivery strategy with the S and X: all production for the first month in a quarter goes to the US, while all production for the second and third months are shipped to Canada or overseas. Any chance this explains the delay for new Model S orders? It’s possible it was just BS to try to get me to pull the trigger faster.

 

[ChrisH]

What I don’t get is, if there are 400,000-500,000 reservation holders and I reserved less than a week ago, how am I still projected to get an SR vehicle in one year? Even if production is at 5,000/wk right now, that’s still only 260,000 cars in a year. I’m not complaining but I don’t get my estimate from Tesla.

 

[coconutboy84]

What I don’t get is, if there are 400,000-500,000 reservation holders and I reserved less than a week ago, how am I still projected to get an SR vehicle in one year? Even if production is at 5,000/wk right now, that’s still only 260,000 cars in a year. I’m not complaining but I don’t get my estimate from Tesla.

the estimate is veryyyyy optimistic. i think if they put the reality of "order your car today and take delivery in 2-2.5 years" people wouldnt order even hahah.

 

[Runt8]

What I don’t get is, if there are 400,000-500,000 reservation holders and I reserved less than a week ago, how am I still projected to get an SR vehicle in one year? Even if production is at 5,000/wk right now, that’s still only 260,000 cars in a year. I’m not complaining but I don’t get my estimate from Tesla.

We don’t know the conversion rate or the number of international orders. It’s possible you could get it in a year, but I wouldn’t count on it too much.

 

[PoitNarf]

Assuming that @Troy’s estimator is as accurate as I hope (latest version is only 2 days behind my actual config date now), I now realize that there’s a good possibility I could take delivery on March 31st! If it ends up being 2 years to the day exactly that would be quite interesting. I’d still prefer getting it earlier than that though!

 

[Troy]

@Runt8, that sounds correct. Tesla wants to maximize quarterly numbers. Exports take time. It takes 40-55 days from factory to delivery in Europe or Asia. They want the cars to be delivered before the quarter is over. Therefore production during the first half of the quarter is allocated to exports and second half to US. March is US. Then April and half of May is overseas and then the second half of May and June is US. You might say, then why wouldn't they produce a newly ordered Model S in March? Because March is full. They have too many orders. Check out Model S VINs here. You can see that they are producing lots of Model S in Q1.

US automotive sales are is 52.9% of Tesla's global sales:
$5.1 billion: Tesla's US automotive revenue in 2017
$9.6 billion: Tesla's Global automotive revenue in 2017

@ChrisH,
In message #1922, you can see that Tesla expects to produce SR in Late 2018 and Early 2019. What you don't see there is the fact that the earliest Europe and Asia estimate on Tesla.com is Early-2019. If things go according to plan, Tesla would produce 220K Model 3s this year and most of US production would be done. Then next year, they would start with Europe and Asia and they would have a small number of remaining US orders. However, we shall see if they can get anywhere near 2,5K/week and 5K/week by the end of Q1 and Q2. Deliveries right now have almost completely stopped. Not sure what is going on.

I wonder what Tesla.com shows if somebody from Europe reserves now. Does it still show Early 2019? If it does, then we need to reconsider the meaning of Early 2019. In that case, it would mean, "we don't want to think about this right now, we will let you know later". If somebody from Europe reserved in 2017 or 2018, let me know what Tesla.com shows.

 

[Kipp]

@Troy, I tried to update my data on the "Tesla.com Estimates" tab but I'm no longer allowed to edit. Line 297 is me and I got my invite and configured on 2/22/18. Are those rows supposed to be protected at this point?