Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

[evpulse]

@Troy I know you'd probably rather not do this all night but.... I was dumb and cancelled my 4/1/16 reservation. So, no res, non-owner configured LR AWD - White Seats on 7/31 before the price increase.

(Part 1) Would you still estimate December for that car?

(Part 2)

My local power utility has a rebate that is limited to 40 customers, debating switching to RWD to take advantage just in case the AWD IS December.

Would you assume that switching to RWD at this point of AWD ramp would still result in the 3-7 day VIN assignment we'd be seeing lately for RWD?

I’m in the same boat as you just a day later when they announced the free supercharging.

@Troy Your analytics and charting is amazing. I’ve been trying to guestimate when they might start building a P3D+ w/ Black based on what is being produced on the assembly line with no luck. I was wondering how difficult it might be to encorporate a Gantt chart in the data to track what configurations the factory appears to be producing for a given stretch of time. I figure there has to be some data for how long they run a particular build on the line. Maybe it can help clear things up, maybe not. Thanks for all your hard work as well.

 

[beachbum77]

Hi, @umair239. There is a queue for P and LR-AWD versions. If you ordered on 1st Aug and you don't have a reservation, you are pretty much at the end of the queue.

So far 238 P buyers have entered their data. 45 of them have received their VINs and 193 are still waiting. In the last week, 10 P buyers have reported receiving a VIN. A week before that it was 9 and the week before that, it was again 9. Tesla is slowly increasing LR-AWD and P production.

Clearing out the VIN queue for current P buyers could take between 16 and 19 weeks. Therefore, my best guess is, your car will be delivered in December. There is a chance you could get your car sooner. Tesla could switch a larger portion of the production to AWD. Also, about 8% of LR-AWD and P buyers who don't have a reservation have also received their VINs. You could be one of those lucky people.

HI Troy,

Just curious why your spreadsheet does not include reservations waiting for the SR now due out in 5-8 months. It would be interesting to see what options they are waiting for besides SR. When will you be adding them in?

 

[robd]

Troy,

I configured july 16, no reservation but changed wheel configuration from 19 to 18” on 7/29. What’s your estimate for me? Will the wheel change affect my date? Blue AWD. RFD and put my original date on the spreadsheet. Thanks for all the work!

 

[Troy]

@evpulse, here is a video that shows how you can use filter views to see the latest VINs by seat color.

Just curious why your spreadsheet does not include reservations waiting for the SR now due out in 5-8 months.

SR and SR AWD will be added when people start to configure. The configuration date is a required field to preserve the quality of the data. Otherwise, we get too much idle data where people enter their data and then never come back. Those add up over time. I deleted about 1,500 to 2,000 incomplete entries to clean up the data. Those were mostly LR entries without a configuration, VIN or a delivery date.

@robd, I don't know whether changing the wheel choice would move your config from 16th July to 29th. However, you said you don't have a reservation. That means it is unlikely that you will get a VIN in August or September. The same is true for all LR-AWD and P buyers without a reservation regardless of their configuration date. I think October is possible but November is more likely.

 

[beachbum77]

@evpulse, here is a video that shows how you can use filter views to see the latest P3D VINs by seat color. I don't plan to add a new chart about this. Recently we have seen an increase in P3D orders by reservation holders. That pushes back all non-reservation holders. Therefore it might be a better idea to focus on whether or not people can get their car in 2018 especially if they have ordered an LR-AWD in August and they don't have a reservation.

SR and SR AWD will be added when people start to configure. The configuration date is a required field to preserve the quality of the data. Otherwise, we get too much idle data where people enter their data and then never come back. Those add up over time. I deleted about 1,500 to 2,000 incomplete entries to clean up the data. Those were mostly LR entries without a configuration, VIN or a delivery date.

@robd, I don't know whether changing the wheel choice would move your config from 16th July to 29th. However, you said you don't have a reservation. That means it is unlikely that you will get a VIN in August or September. The same is true for all LR-AWD and P buyers without a reservation regardless of their configuration date. I think October is possible but November is more likely.

Troy, why the change? You had people loading in their data long before anyone could configure the LR versions dating back to December when you launched the spreadsheet. I am strictly talking about those holding reservations.

 

[Troy]

I haven't checked, but I don't think any 56xxx VINs were even dual motor, let alone performance. Can anyone verify?

LRD and P versions use the same type of VINs. The 8th character is B for dual motor instead of A for single motor. VINs from 54,013 to 56,297 are indeed dual motor VINs (LRD or P). However, VINs are not assigned sequentially. They are at 64K units right now. See the Production tab here.

 

[Brenzo]

So as I understand it, until you are fully matched with a vehicle and given a more accurate estimate of delivery, you can request a full refund. I've even heard that some states (Illinois, for example) might let you get a full refund even if you are matched because you haven't actually taken delivery of the car.

Let's assume that I can't get the deposit refunded, does anyone know if it's possible to keep the money with Tesla and use that for another vehicle in the future should you refuse to accept delivery? For instance, if I can't get a Model 3 before EOY, losing half the federal tax credit would mean I'd have less left over to cover any gap between trade-in and remaining loan amount on my current vehicle, which might make more likely to just stay with what I have now.

While I'd obviously prefer the full $2,500 back rather than forfeit it, I'd be OK with keeping it available for a deposit towards another Tesla at some point in the future. Who knows, might even have the funds to upgrade to an S or X (or Y...) by that time.

 

[Bimbels]

I don’t think they do that - unless you roll it into a new order or reservation and I’ve heard there being glitches with that. You’d be better off putting it in an interest bearing savings account and not touching it. Otherwise you’re giving them a free loan.

 

[Brenzo]

Question...

Does a reservation holder who has not configured / placed a deposit, get priority in the production queue when they decide to configure over someone without an existing reservation who has already configured and placed their deposit?

 

[noam]

Question...

Does a reservation holder who has not configured / placed a deposit, get priority in the production queue when they decide to configure over someone without an existing reservation who has already configured and placed their deposit?

No one knows for sure, but right now they are going by reservation date primarily.

 

[Troy]

• Buyers in North America who are waiting for the Standard Range or Standard Range AWD version and all buyers outside of North America can use my other project, the Model 3 Delivery Estimator.
• @Brenzo, yes I think that appears to be the case considering that some reservation holders who ordered in August have already received their VIN.
• Looking at the RWD VIN chart, I'm starting to see signs that Tesla might be getting close to stopping or significantly reducing LR production. Normally, VINs spread to a large area because Tesla wants to obscure the actual production numbers. But recently, the height of the blue area is getting shorter and shorter. Also, Tesla is not acquiring RWD VINs from NHTSA anymore. What that means is, we should expect an increase in AWD production soon.

 

[Trips]

Is there a spreadsheet with just the raw data? It seems like all of the formula's make it tough to load.

 

[fnce_prof]

• Buyers in North America who are waiting for the Standard Range or Standard Range AWD version and all buyers outside of North America can use my other project, the Model 3 Delivery Estimator.
• @Brenzo, yes I think that appears to be the case considering that some reservation holders who ordered in August have already received their VIN.
• Looking at the RWD VIN chart, I'm starting to see signs that Tesla might be getting close to stopping or significantly reducing LR production. Normally, VINs spread to a large area because Tesla wants to obscure the actual production numbers. But recently, the height of the blue area is getting shorter and shorter. Also, Tesla is not acquiring RWD VINs from NHTSA anymore. What that means is, we should expect an increase in AWD production soon.

That looks interesting...what do you guys think about the prospect of delivering the el-cheapo (well, RWD LR solid black--no autopilot) that I ordered yesterday w/o a reservation? It would be nice to have a breakdown of the VIN assignments by options/color.

 

[Dayfu]

Troy - I'm not great with spreadsheets - is there a way to see what the color choices and percentages - like maybe a pie chart? I feel like midnight silver metallic is the most popular, but it would be interesting to see what your data shows.

 

[1deepthink]

No doubt this is in your summary somewhere...but if one of you could confirm or correct my analysis, I would appreciate it!
I did some simple filtering and counting and it looks to me like 90%+ of the LR RWD users have VINs and 11% of the LR AWD users have VINs. Is this true?? If so, it sure relieves a lot of anxiety!
(thank you for all of work gathering data!)

 

[Troy]

@Trips, there isn't a version with just the All Entries tab but if the file doesn't load, you could try one of the other files. There are 4 identical spreadsheets. The links are in the opening message.

@fnce_prof, LR VINs are assigned pretty quickly these days. Find your name on the VIN Queue tab and watch how that table changes over time.

@Dayfu, see the survey tab.

@1deepthink, correct. The LR queue is much smaller. There are 167 LR buyers waiting for a VIN compared to 759 LR-AWD. The 'VINs' tab has some charts. But that's just the people who have entered their data. I estimate 7,849 LR and 35,673 LR-AWD VIN waiters in real life.

 

[Toadmanor]

Well, I did it!

Just placed my order and deposit for Model 3 Long Range, with RWD 18" Aero Wheels and in Silver Metallic with Enhanced Auto Pilot.

Now the wait begins.

 

[njsrikar]

Well, I did it!

Just placed my order and deposit for Model 3 Long Range, with RWD 18" Aero Wheels and in Silver Metallic with Enhanced Auto Pilot.

Now the wait begins.

welcome to the club!!

 

[kiartu]

Hey Troy,

Do you want me confirming VIN on the spreadsheet... if I *haven't* actually gotten the VIN? I'll explain: Edit button is gone, finance is approved, etc. But my IDA is withholding the VIN until it's been inspected sometime *hopefully* this week.

I'm assuming that if the account VIN trick still worked... I'd already have the VIN. But alas...

What date should I use? Finance/Call from Tesla? Or later when they give me the VIN and schedule delivery?

Thanks!

 

[Toadmanor]

Troy, I ordered today and placed my information in the spreadsheet. I did not have a reservation so marked the No Reservation on the input sheet. However, the spreadsheet Column F does not have any data for my entry. Is this correct?

Toad