Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

[Toadmanor]

I’d be willing to bet you’d get it before the end of the year. Most RWD people have been getting “the call” within weeks.

@Toadmanor, yes, the average time from configuration to delivery for the Model 3 LR is currently 23 days. Here is how you can check the data yourself:

Links to the spreadsheet are in the opening message.

Yes, I see that info but what I can not find is the time from placing an order to configuration.

Thanks,

 

[Troy]

Configuring and ordering are the same thing. I think you might be thinking about reservations. Tesla stopped accepting reservations at the end of June and made the configurator public. Since 26 June 2018, people can go to tesla.com and order (aka configure) a Model 3 instantly. The call @AnarchyEOD has mentioned is about scheduling the delivery. Somebody will call you to arrange the delivery.

 

[Toadmanor]

Configuring and ordering are the same thing. I think you might be thinking about reservations. Reservations were canceled a few weeks ago. People can now go to tesla.com and order (aka configure) a Model 3 instantly. The call @AnarchyEOD has mentioned is about scheduling the delivery. Somebody will call you to arrange the delivery.

So, if configuration and ordering is the same and the average number of days to get delivery is 23 why does Tesla state it takes ~2-4 months for delivery. Something seems fishy. Or, I have just not had enough caffeine yet today!

 

[Troy]

They say 2-4 months for all Model 3 versions but the LRD and P have actually longer wait times than LR. They should change it to 1-2 months for the LR but they might be thinking that this would discourage some people from ordering the LRD or P. Displaying 2-4 months for all versions seems like a marketing tactic.

 

[Toadmanor]

Got it Troy, AND THANK YOU.

TOAD

 

[Randy7fx]

They say 2-4 months for all Model 3 versions but the LRD and P have actually longer wait times than LR. They should change it to 1-2 months for the LR but they might be thinking that this would discourage some people from ordering the LRD or P. Displaying 2-4 months for all versions seems like a marketing tactic.

Troy, great data. Thanks for taking the time to pull it all together. How long is the wait time for a performance model?

 

[AnarchyEOD]

Is "the call" the call to configure?

The call to get financing, delivery...

 

[Troy]

@Randy7fx,

If you mean the wait time for people who have already configured, that depends on reservation date, configuration date, and the color choice. However, if you mean if somebody orders an LRD or P now, then the wait time will be longer than somebody ordering an LR now because there is already a long queue since the configurator went public at the end of June. Tesla has been trying to ramp up AWD production and we saw an increase starting on 6th Aug.

If you check out the production tab, my current estimate is RWD = 1,617/week and AWD = 1,797/week. AWD used to be 1239/week before 6 Aug. So, hopefully, they will start to clear out the AWD waiting list quicker but it is a long list. I mean just look at these 3 tables. They tell the story themselves. On the left, we have the LR table which is almost entirely red. It means those people have already received their VINs. LRD buyers are going to have to wait for the longest.

 

[AnarchyEOD]

It also really depends on color. If you happen to order the flavor (color) of the week you might get one sooner. I configured a white AWD and I think white may have been one of the first batches out. Got my VIN/call in July.

 

[bonaire]

WOW! There is so much info here. I have been watching this for some time.

Test drove a Model 3 last Tuesday. Got "permission" to go ahead and order one yesterday. RWD, LRB, PUP, EAP, color and wheels uncertain.

My question is: if I order in the next couple of days will I be able to get prior to end of December 2018 which would then give me full $7500 tax credit?

What do you folks think...or know?

I would think October and possible end of September.

 

[Dayfu]

I haven’t been tracking this database for very long, but it looks like there are a lot fewer configurations being placed on the spreadsheet than before. Is that because fewer people are ordering them, or is it because people don’t always enter their info immediately? In the last week only 19 people have posted that they have configured their cars.

 

[diamond.g]

I haven’t been tracking this database for very long, but it looks like there are a lot fewer configurations being placed on the spreadsheet than before. Is that because fewer people are ordering them, or is it because people don’t always enter their info immediately? In the last week only 19 people have posted that they have configured their cars.

Most people are not as obsessive as us in tracking these things. Orders aren’t dropping, folks just aren’t adding their data to the sheet.

 

[Troy]

In the last week only 19 people have posted that they have configured their cars.

That's because many people who have configured in the last week haven't entered their data yet. During the last 7 days between 4-10 Aug, 175 people have entered their data which is 25/day or 750/month. It used to be 1,000/month but the current rate is still pretty good.

For some people, it takes time to find the spreadsheet after they configure. Here is a screenshot of the most recent entries. Notice that people who have entered their data on 10 Aug, configured much sooner. On average, it took people 29 days after configuration to enter their data.

If people want to help to make this project more visible to newcomers, they could add a link to their signature. This could help especially if somebody posts lots of messages in this forum. There are 4 identical spreadsheets. The links are in the opening message. People can pick one of them and add it to their signature.

The reddit.com/r/teslamotors/ sidebar used to have a direct link to this project but they bundled my links together under a parent link that opens to a landing page. That made it much less visible. I find that frustrating because the moderator there (/u/110110) has a link on the sidebar to his own spreadsheet which is pretty useless. It shows the top speed of discontinued Teslas. That kind of information is easily available on Wikipedia anyway. It is pretty much a completely useless project that nobody cares about but apparently, it is worthy of a sidebar link and this project is not.

 

[hmerrill3]

Is "the call" the call to configure?

Since you now configure at order, the "call" (which could also be an email) is to confirm your configuration which occurs immediately before your VIN has been assigned.

I believe my VIN has been assigned three times, the first immediately after I configured got changed when I changed colors. The second got changed either when there was an issue with the original car or there was mismatch between my schedule and when they could first deliver the car. It would appear from my experience they match cars specs AND delivery dates to orders as I suspect my VIN got changed this last time because I couldn't take delivery during a 5-day period this month.

 

[Randy7fx]

@Randy7fx,

If you mean the wait time for people who have already configured, that depends on reservation date, configuration date, and the color choice.

Thanks Troy. I reserved April 1, 2016. Configured August 5th. Performance, FSD, Standard Black with white interior, no performance upgrade. In Charlotte, NC and not a Tesla owner. What does this all mean for potential delivery dates? Thanks so much.

 

[wcorey]

WOW! There is so much info here. I have been watching this for some time.

Test drove a Model 3 last Tuesday. Got "permission" to go ahead and order one yesterday. RWD, LRB, PUP, EAP, color and wheels uncertain.

My question is: if I order in the next couple of days will I be able to get prior to end of December 2018 which would then give me full $7500 tax credit?

What do you folks think...or know?

I'd almost bet no. However, I did notice yesterday, if not the day before, Tesla is not promising w/i 4 months delivery, nor are they ranking RWD faster delivery than AWD. I suspect what happened is they did a full court press to empty the RWD backlog. Now they are doing a full court press to empty the AWD backlog. And, think about it, people have been waiting over a year for their AWD, someone ordering today would jump in front of the line? AWD reservations were told they'd take delivery this year. Best case, it'll be a squeaker. 4 months is mid December. Right now I am not seeing any advertised delivery 'promise' but if it's 5 months...that would be next year.

 

[Troy]

What does this all mean

It means this is pretty much a wait-and-see situation. The last few days have been very slow for the Performance version. If you look at the VIN Queue tab columns H to O, no Black Performance received a VIN. If we look at all colors, only 9 people reported VINs for the P version between 4-10 Aug compared to 26 for the LRD. Maybe there is a shortage of one of the components that go into the P version. Hopefully, the next week will be better for the P.

By the way, I have just updated the production numbers. Based on the latest data, I changed it to RWD = 1,747/week and AWD = 2,016/week. The previous estimate was RWD = 1,617/week and AWD = 1,797/week. Tesla is definitely increasing AWD production.

 

[Toadmanor]

I'd almost bet no. However, I did notice yesterday, if not the day before, Tesla is not promising w/i 4 months delivery, nor are they ranking RWD faster delivery than AWD. I suspect what happened is they did a full court press to empty the RWD backlog. Now they are doing a full court press to empty the AWD backlog. And, think about it, people have been waiting over a year for their AWD, someone ordering today would jump in front of the line? AWD reservations were told they'd take delivery this year. Best case, it'll be a squeaker. 4 months is mid December. Right now I am not seeing any advertised delivery 'promise' but if it's 5 months...that would be next year.

Well, this is not good. If I do not get the $7500 I should not order one now. The largest factor is that I have a vehicle lease today that does not expire until May 2019. The numbers with a $7500 tax credit allow me to feel better about having two vehicles for 5-6 months. I just mowed my lawn came in to place my order a saw this. Such a difficult decision.

 

[Troy]

@Toadmanor, I think there is a pretty good chance your car will be delivered in September. My best guess is 25 Aug-15 Sep.

On 1st Aug, Tesla released this shareholder letter. It says they are planning to produce 50,000-55,000 Model 3s in Q3. Based on my calculation, if they continue at the current rate, they would finish Q3 around 48K. That means we should expect a slight increase in production. However, even if we assume no increase, RWD production is still strong enough to clear out the current waiting list quickly.

This table is from the VINs tab here. It shows that RWD is less than half of total production but it is still around 48% and doesn't decline too sharply. It's not like they are shutting down RWD and switching completely to AWD.

There are 141 days until the end of the year. So far, nobody has ever waited 141 days between configuration and delivery. The average wait time for people who configured after July 1st is 23 days. After June 1st, it's 28 days. The wait times are getting shorter, not longer.

 

[wcorey]

Well, this is not good. If I do not get the $7500 I should not order one now. The largest factor is that I have a vehicle lease today that does not expire until May 2019. The numbers with a $7500 tax credit allow me to feel better about having two vehicles for 5-6 months. I just mowed my lawn came in to place my order a saw this. Such a difficult decision.

Personally, I think people buying a car premised on getting a rebate is a fools errand. Buy a car because you want that car. If you are contractually bound to your lease agreement until May that will wipe out any tax credit. That said, the SR $35,000 M3 will be available next year, perhaps even later this year. Again, there are people who have reserved the SR battery version over a year ago. The other thing to consider is, if you want the LR RWD M3, the tax credit, if your order does slide to Jan, is still $3575 or there abouts plus whatever your state gives you. For people getting priority on their order, they may be existing or previous owners. There are lots of reasons for some less than first in first out. Yes, there are some told 3-5 months that got it within a month, Tesla deliberately warehoused RWD cars until into July to force full rebate through end of year. It doesn't appear they are giving expected delivery anymore but if they do you'll see that before you give them $2500 with your order.
I worked in a company once that gave workers outstanding year end bonuses. I knew one couple that routinely bought on a bonus that hadn't come yet. One year the bonuses didn't come at all and they were fearful they'd lose their home.