Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

[Pandamoanium]

When trying to decide between the LRD and P3D, people usually think about differences such as free supercharging, 4.4s vs 3.4s 0-60, track mode, stronger brakes, etc. but instead of focusing too much on these details, I would recommend thinking about the ownership duration. Considering how quickly Tesla changed from Model S P85+ without Autopilot to P85D with AP1.0 and Insane Mode and then to P90D and P100D with AP2.5 and Ludicrous Mode, it might not be the best choice to buy the top of the line version for a long time, let's say 4 years or longer. I think 2018 LRD for 2 years + 2020 LRD for 2 years is a better choice than 2018 P for 4 years. But if somebody is planning to buy the P version for only 2 years, then that's an excellent idea too.

@ColoradoDave, I disagree with the idea that changing your order would delay your delivery because LRD and P orders by reservation holders are processed in random order. What the person said was true for LR orders a few months ago.

Based on my calculation, the delivery estimate for reservation holders in Colorado is
8 Sep- 25 Oct for P3D,
8 Sep - 23 Oct for LRD.
Any day between these two dates is equally likely.

Is there a difference in VIN for performance models? They did that before in the past for S and X, not sure if it is the same for the 3. I've been seeing some comments of people and their VINs, mine is around 74XXX which seems like one sitting there since there are over 100K model 3's now.

 

[Troy]

Is there a difference in VIN for performance models?

No. The only difference is between RWD and AWD (LRD & P) which is the 8th character. RWD has A and AWD has B. More details here: Tesla Model Year 2018 VIN Decoder

I've been seeing some comments of people and their VINs, mine is around 74XXX which seems like one sitting there since there are over 100K model 3's now.

VIN assignments are not sequential because Tesla wants to obscure the day to day production numbers. Therefore, for example, cars produced on the same day might have a VIN in the 50,000 range or 75,000 range. If you get a low VIN, it doesn't mean your car was produced a while ago and it was sitting in a parking lot. See the chart 'VINs vs manufacture date' in VINs!B87 here.

Btw, Tesla is not over 100K Model 3's now. Total production so far is 73,421 Model 3s. See the Production tab here. Tesla is intentionally picking VINs from a wide range to obscure the actual production numbers.

 

[Pandamoanium]

No. The only difference is between RWD and AWD (LRD & P) which is the 8th character. RWD has A and AWD has B. More details here: Tesla Model Year 2018 VIN Decoder



VIN assignments are not sequential because Tesla wants to obscure the day to day production numbers. Therefore, for example, cars produced on the same day might have a VIN in the 50,000 range or 75,000 range. If you get a low VIN, it doesn't mean your car was produced a while ago and it was sitting in a parking lot. See the chart 'VINs vs manufacture date' in VINs!B87 here.

Btw, Tesla is not over 100K Model 3's now. Total production so far is 73,421 Model 3s. See the Production tab here. Tesla is intentionally picking VINs from a wide range to obscure the actual production numbers.

You’re awesome! I appreciate the info. I’ll go through and work on getting mine added.

 

[ColoradoDave]

When trying to decide between the LRD and P3D, people usually think about differences such as free supercharging, 4.4s vs 3.4s 0-60, track mode, stronger brakes, etc. but instead of focusing too much on these details, I would recommend thinking about the ownership duration. Considering how quickly Tesla changed from Model S P85+ without Autopilot to P85D with AP1.0 and Insane Mode and then to P90D and P100D with AP2.5 and Ludicrous Mode, it might not be the best choice to buy the top of the line version for a long time, let's say 4 years or longer. I think 2018 LRD for 2 years + 2020 LRD for 2 years is a better choice than 2018 P for 4 years. But if somebody is planning to buy the P version for only 2 years, then that's an excellent idea too.

@ColoradoDave, I disagree with the idea that changing your order would delay your delivery because LRD and P orders by reservation holders are processed in random order. What the person said was true for LR orders a few months ago.

Based on my calculation, the delivery estimate for reservation holders in Colorado is
8 Sep- 25 Oct for P3D,
8 Sep - 23 Oct for LRD.
Any day between these two dates is equally likely.

@Troy Thanks - very useful info

 

[XisBest]

I ordered 8/16 and found out yesterday got delivery date of 9/7. White on white fsd autopilot awd. Not P.

I am soooo excited but almost equally anxious about issues. A buddy was supposed to pick up yesterday but during inspection something in door was rattling or making noise so they have to order part and kicked him to tuesday.

Love that they found and are fixing. I hopeq if anything large or small gaps, paint, noises can get fixed prior to me having to tske delivery. #scared

 

[zamboni52]

When trying to decide between the LRD and P3D, people usually think about differences such as free supercharging, 4.4s vs 3.4s 0-60, track mode, stronger brakes, etc. but instead of focusing too much on these details, I would recommend thinking about the ownership duration. Considering how quickly Tesla changed from Model S P85+ without Autopilot to P85D with AP1.0 and Insane Mode and then to P90D and P100D with AP2.5 and Ludicrous Mode, it might not be the best choice to buy the top of the line version for a long time, let's say 4 years or longer. I think 2018 LRD for 2 years + 2020 LRD for 2 years is a better choice than 2018 P for 4 years. But if somebody is planning to buy the P version for only 2 years, then that's an excellent idea too.

@ColoradoDave, I disagree with the idea that changing your order would delay your delivery because LRD and P orders by reservation holders are processed in random order. What the person said was true for LR orders a few months ago.

Based on my calculation, the delivery estimate for reservation holders in Colorado is
8 Sep- 25 Oct for P3D,
8 Sep - 23 Oct for LRD.
Any day between these two dates is equally likely.

Day 2 Reservation holder. Placed my P3D+/MSM/White Interior/EAP/Referral code order on Mon, 27 Aug. Called Tesla on Tues, 28 Aug because my edit button went away and I was asked to complete my trade-in information; she said I had a VIN assigned but she couldn't tell me over the phone and that my ISA would contact me. Got an email from my ISA that night to confirm some details about delivery, financing, registration, trade-in, etc. Wed, 29 Aug received a call from Tesla regarding availability of charging options in my garage and if I was interested in solar panels. Also, received a follow-up email that said to expect arrival mid-next week (delivery in Littleton, CO). I responded that I will be selling my trade-in myself and to remove it from my account. I should have everything complete now. Strange thing is I asked several times and they haven't disclosed the VIN to me. Thoughts on this??

 

[Pandamoanium]

Day 2 Reservation holder. Placed my P3D+/MSM/White Interior/EAP/Referral code order on Mon, 27 Aug. Called Tesla on Tues, 28 Aug because my edit button went away and I was asked to complete my trade-in information; she said I had a VIN assigned but she couldn't tell me over the phone and that my ISA would contact me. Got an email from my ISA that night to confirm some details about delivery, financing, registration, trade-in, etc. Wed, 29 Aug received a call from Tesla regarding availability of charging options in my garage and if I was interested in solar panels. Also, received a follow-up email that said to expect arrival mid-next week (delivery in Littleton, CO). I responded that I will be selling my trade-in myself and to remove it from my account. I should have everything complete now. Strange thing is I asked several times and they haven't disclosed the VIN to me. Thoughts on this??

Sounds very similar to me. Maybe we will be on the same day? For now though I do not have a date.

 

[desiGeek]

@Troy What happened here ? The published version of your spreadsheet is showing the below

Q3 estimate went down from 51K+ to 28K+

 

[systemBuilder]

My vin will come on September 26th, 2018. Why do I think so?

I ordered an AWD PERF with a reservation.
Tesla started VINing these cars on July 19th (roughly, according to spreadsheet)
tesla has averaged 2.75 VINs per day since then (110 cars VINed so far).
My order is 192 out of 285 orders in the spreadsheet (cut/paste into emacs, sub TAB->CR, count lines)
Therefore it will take 69 days for my VIN to arrive, from July 19th.
Which is September 26th, 2018. I hope.

This assumes first-come, first-server ordering which isn't guaranteed, but it's all I have right now to go on.

 

[systemBuilder]

The 3rd party bank loan paid in full to Tesla and cash are similar to me. Let's talk Tesla financing vs cash... For a company looking to make themselves profitable going forward as of last quarter, I'd imagine business sense would be to make cash paying customers a priority. That along with their highest revenue generating Model 3s which they are already prioritizing. I believe Tesla is putting financed orders on the back-burner, unless I'm told otherwise.

And one small correction, I just logged into my Tesla account and they changed the delivery estimate to the end of September.

This is nonsense Tesla can do the loan (which they flip right away to an MBS buyer) or another bank can do the loan or the customer can pay cash, ergo, Tesla pockets the cash a day or two after the sale of the car.

 

[Sneakerbuddy]

Troy -

Any interest in adding a "rejected/recalled VIN" feature to the spreadsheet or the TMC Forums? Seems that many buyers are experiencing either notice from Tesla that their VIN will not be ready and getting a new VIN right before delivery; or, they are seeing their car and rejecting it upon delivery (often for paint issues). The rejected VIN feature would help people track that their VIN has had some history and be part of assuring that every customer gets a quality car.

 

[ZachShahan]

Hi, @Benihect. Linking the dots in the VIN Queue tab in column H:O to entries is complicated. Instead, I recommend using filter views if you want to see for example VINs that were assigned yesterday. Here is a video that explains how you can filter and sort the data.

In addition, I added some pre-saved filters to file #3 here. On the top menu, click Data > Filter views > VIN Date=today-1 to open that specific filter. If you want, you can save that link and open the sheet directly into this filtered view.

Why do you consistently get "disagree" votes here? What the H?

 

[Out4aDuck]

Why do you consistently get "disagree" votes here? What the H?

Incredible! There are some serious haters out there.
Speaking for the other 99%, your work is nothing short of sensational, Troy.

 

[Pandamoanium]

Two weeks from placing the order to it landing at my SC. Is this becoming common or there's some underlying information...

 

[ZachShahan]

Two weeks from placing the order to it landing at my SC. Is this becoming common or there's some underlying information...

Looks very common: Model 3 Order Tracker (Published Web Version)

 

[N54TT]

Against @Troy odds....Edit button is gone!!! And I can now enter loan information. 8/1 order, non owner, non reservation. P3d+ Black on Black, EAP. Tesla’s new “by late September” seems to be more likely.

 

[neroden]

I had gotten that impression from your VIN Queue table, but was hoping that BS wasn’t happening as much now. There is no logic to their delivery system except maybe that they are sending X number of cars to each delivery location and then those get matched randomly to buyers. It’s a total slap in the face to people who reserved early. The other spreadsheets people are using to track show more bias toward day, but they have less overall data than you I believe. What I keep hoping is that Tesla sees this issue and the week to week VIN numbers start leaning toward early reservations. Unfortunately, without a reservation date column in your spreadsheet one can’t look at that trend.

I also want to know how far away Tesla is from actually shipping all the cars (or at any rate all the cars with currently-in-production configurations) to the first-day reservationists. The current situation does seem manifestly unreasonable to the early adopters who still don't have their cars, and I would like to keep track of how bad this customer relations fiasco is.

 

[EV-Rev]

I got vin and it’s 69xxx delivery scheduled for September 21st
Hope not a “refurb” but based on reading other posts it’s hard to really tell.
After waiting 2 plus years you would think 3 more weeks would be easy!

 

[hmerrill3]

@Troy did you change something on the spreadsheets? I've edited my entry several times in the past, but now that I need to update delivery status the edit link will not pop up.

 

[brandonee916]

Howdy Troy... in regards to your comment. I think there is a problem at Tesla as well... they provided me VIN 22147 by phone couple weeks ago, however no delivery date. When I tracked the VIN it shows the vehicle being delivered in Dallas, TX and not in CA. I'm thinking they gave me the wrong information. I'll update when I receive new info from Tesla.