Model 3 Performance/Ludicrous Waiting Room

[Raptor911]

Its not mandatory to have a signature here.

As for your "put your order in your signature" , the people who would likely be willing to do that probably already have that data in the tracker that was setup by someone.

I understand it is mandatory. It is helpful to all to see what folks ordered and when they ordered and not having to look them up on the tracker.

It is just a suggestion

 

[ArrghMatey]

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Thats a perfectly reasonable assumption, yet, I have been here on TMC since late 2018, and have never seen any real indication that orders of Tesla follow any sort of First in First Out / "I got in line first" methodology. Geographical proximity? Sure. I have seen people who ordered a vehicle 6-7 weeks before someone else, who live in the same general region, talk about their orders and getting vins at roughly the same time.

Will be interesting to see if this tracker data ends up showing something different, but I dont think so. I think that when people really dig into it and start getting vins, people are going to find that its not really going to matter much if someone in Denver ordered 10 minutes after ordering became available, and someone else ordered two weeks later, if both of those people have similar orders (like both having black interior, or both having white interior) they are going to end up getting vins and their cars at roughly the same time.

I feel guilty saying it, but I hope this is true! hoping to ride @KGinCO 's coattails with a similar pull-in for White/Black in Colorado!

 

[mikelipino]

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Thats a perfectly reasonable assumption, yet, I have been here on TMC since late 2018, and have never seen any real indication that orders of Tesla follow any sort of First in First Out / "I got in line first" methodology. Geographical proximity? Sure. I have seen people who ordered a vehicle 6-7 weeks before someone else, who live in the same general region, talk about their orders and getting vins at roughly the same time.

Will be interesting to see if this tracker data ends up showing something different, but I dont think so. I think that when people really dig into it and start getting vins, people are going to find that its not really going to matter much if someone in Denver ordered 10 minutes after ordering became available, and someone else ordered two weeks later, if both of those people have similar orders (like both having black interior, or both having white interior) they are going to end up getting vins and their cars at roughly the same time.

Haha I had to check, but yeah I joined TMC in 2018 too (!) when I bought my current M3LR that I'll be trading in or selling. What a wild ride! I recall back then EDDs shifted by like 6 months, so the current movement a few days here and there is actually a pleasant surprise for me. Admittedly I'd fallen off TMC for a while there because my car worked fine, so I can't speak to how good Tesla's production planning is doing.

Back when I worked in manufacturing, production planning needed solid historical data to develop an accurate statistical model. In 2018 there was no real historical data (especially with how much they were scaling production), so EDDs were all over the place. Arguably now they have a better grasp of production, but this still represents a new line, and some downstream "weirdness" (EPA sign off, firmware) is preventing the model from being accurate E2E, so I still believe they're doing FIFO in production runs to minimize switching costs

E.g. let's say production runs are 500 units, and there are 400 Day 0 orders each for white and black interiors. Run 1 is for white int. Day 1 another 400 each orders go in, and 100 additional white interiors go into Run 1. So to black int users it looks like Day 1 white orders jumped the line. But then due to "weirdness" only 300 white units make it to showrooms before Run 2 (black int) starts, the 200 unfulfilled white int orders get shifted back with the default 30-day window, and the 500 black int orders are shifted up with a shorter window since it's the current run. Limited data now, but so far I think above matches current experience. I think you're right the data in the sheet will prove or disprove above, but it'll certainly be interesting to see

 

[gavinmp4]

Ordered 4/23, confirmation email 12:16 PM EST.
White/White.
Raleigh, North Carolina.

RN121540XXX.
EDD1: May - June
EDD2: June
EDD3: May 27 - June 30
EDD4: May 22 - June 19

Been at EDD4 for 12 days. It’s now the 22nd and no shift, no VIN. What’s supposed to happen from here? La-la land?

 

[Spye007]

Nice! Loving seeing these black interiors getting moved up! Hoping that means maybe there’s plans for black interior productions soon. Where you from/when order?

SG/black here ordered 4/23 in the evening in Midwest state. Went from 7/6-8/13 to 5/30 - 6/13 just a bit ago. No VIN yet and I know nothing set till you get one, but how do you not get excited from getting the EDD moved up? Lol and why would they even bother to move them up if there wasn’t any possibility that they’re thinking it could be sooner? I guess I’m just hopeful wishing.

I ordered the morning of release very early. 12153 and I live in Corvallis Oregon

 

[CheddarChiz]

My EDD went from "May 21 - June 4" to "August 1 - September 12". Like, what the fck?

Hahaha I think I'm done worrying about this constantly for now and will just check once a day.

Good luck to everyone!

 

[12B4A]

It really is best to turn off the OCD until you get the VIN assignment notification.

 

[Parelem]

Mine (Day 0, UR/B, Chicago) just got adjusted from 5/29-6/26 to 5/30-6/13 (delayed a day but shortened). Assuming that EDDs are tied to a statistical production planning system and not say, lotto ping pong balls, I'd venture to guess that they're planning on a production run of black interiors. With some of the white interiors in contrast being delayed with the ~30 day window, I think it's reasonable to assume they're alternating runs to meet the existing orders using FIFO, and that runs in the closer future have tighter windows than ones further in the future

I would assume this is likely the case. Different exterior color, but same EDD for me, also in Chicago.

 

[TulsaCoker]

My EDD went from "May 21 - June 4" to "August 1 - September 12". Like, what the fck?

Hahaha I think I'm done worrying about this constantly for now and will just check once a day.

Good luck to everyone!

Curious, have you clicked on earlier pickup available?

 

[xianking]

You're all going to love your car and be thankful you waited. You'll mostly forget about the wait once you sit in your car for the first time. As a matter of fact, the wait will make actually sitting in your car for the first time even better. Don't let it upset you. This is the closest you get to Christmas as an adult.

 

[M3PDenver]

most people SOC is going to be around this

Sure, advertised 2.9 may not be.

 

[CheddarChiz]

Curious, have you clicked on earlier pickup available?

Yeah, no Performance trims. Seattle has not gotten any movements so far from what I've seen. No love from Tesla, I guess.

 

[MikeyC]

Some of these dates into end of September seem very delayed. Do we think the Fremont fire may have affected this?

 

[Gasaraki]

Does anyone else find themselves not only checking for EDD updates on their app, but also clicking the "earlier pickup available" inventory link HOPING to see a Performance pop up available??? Ahhhhhhhh this will all be worth it though!

I don't dare touch anything like that because my date for May 25 - June 22 hasn't moved for weeks. Not about to mess that up playing around and accidentally changing config or something.

 

[ColdFyre22]

Just stopped by SC Miami Gardens and they have a display one. The SAs know absolutely nothing lol…

You take any pictures? I may have to head out there tomorrow or Friday.....

 

[Raptor911]

So I'm in a very tricky situation right now and looking for advice..

I ordered a LRM3 white on white back in early Feb when they had FSD and never received the order. I eventually changed the order to the performance stealth gray and white interior with a delivery range may 21-june4 to qualify for the tax credit and also still be eligible for fsd transfer. Problem is, I love the white on white look and the new performance looks so good in white in my opinion.

Since I'm locked into the og pricing, I considered white ext with black interior, but the white seats just look so much better to me. What are y'all's thoughts in the white interior in the new performance? Should I just cancel my order and wait for them to drop the price for all colors to qualify for tax incentive and allow fsd transfer (if they ever will) again?

the white interior does look good BUT I am not sure about the interior white doors. It looks like a suede material and how dirty will they get? Will they be easy to clean?

 

[Gasaraki]

Anyone notice the Tesla website site got updated and the model 3 performance now shows a 303 mile EPA est range? Not sure if someone else already commented it..lots of pages of discussion

Remember the posts where people thought it was going to get 260 miles? I was like, shut the front trunk. Why would the range drop that much.

 

[Gasaraki]

SO..... if the M3P on staggered 20".P235, P275 5.0" ride heigh (2023 had 82KWhr batt) now gets 303 EPA
and
the M3LR on 19" P235 all around 5.4" ride heigh, 82KWhr gets 305 EPA

With the wider tire patch, larger diameter wheel, and added front and rear aero forces but reduced cross-section. Is the new rear motor more the efficient difference than the legacy rear motor. Every thing but the .4" dropped ride height is working against EPA effiecnice yet its nearly the same..
am I missing something or is the performance also the long range? (or could it just be the magical KAF reduced friction )

I thought the LR has a smaller usable battery. LG vs. Panasonic.

 

[Lampras]

You take any pictures? I may have to head out there tomorrow or Friday.....

No, I didn’t. I just opened the door and tried out the new seats. It was parked outside, next to a white Model X.

 

[CheesyWhales]

My EDD tightened up a bit. May 25th through June 3rd. Grey/White in the Orlando area. Here’s hoping for the weekend.