Model 3 Reservation Guess Lottery

[doubeld]

It looks like the estimations got bigger and bigger the closer to the reveal we got, but the earliest somewhat accurate guess was Dave Garaffa with 120,021 (back in January). So far that will be one of the closest guesses for the 1-week time frame! NannerAirCraft/ccutrer/M0delTree with 125k estimates will be close, as well as Mod3l 4 me with 150k/week (but 120k for 36hrs will be close).

Not many of us have our reservation number/sequences yet, so I don't know what we'll have to go by, other than Elon saying over 115,000 as of the reveal event.

 

[NannerAirCraft]

Welp my week estimate looks like it's already been passed.

 

[Jhsq]

Latest figure on Electrek is 150 000 and based on the google trends results, this might get very interesting before the year ends. I doubt even Elon Musk's wildest dreams would have guessed this.

 

[Monsieur X]

232,000 reservations confirmed by Elon on Twitter as of 22:00 Friday

 

[dauger]

I think it's great that the actual reservation counts exceeded everybody's estimates, and the takeaway is:

These results unequivocally confirm that there is a demand (perhaps a pent up demand) for the right EV solution (e.g., Model 3 + Supercharging) at the right price. No other automaker offers, or has plans to offer, anything like what Tesla offers.

Unfortunately for TM's larger goals, the incumbents act like they're oblivious. Maybe they really are oblivious.

 

[hcsharp]

I think it's great that the actual reservation counts exceeded everybody's estimates,
...

Excuse me?

 

[dauger]

Excuse me?

Okay, okay, sorry. Everyone except hcsharp (and a rare handful of others?). I didn't see your prediction until today, but I wouldn't have believed it at the time, despite being pro Tesla (check the link in my sig if you're skeptical).

The results just seem like complete validation of what we see in EVs' future success.

 

[hcsharp]

Okay, okay, sorry. Everyone except hcsharp (and a rare handful of others?). I didn't see your prediction until today, but I wouldn't have believed it at the time, despite being pro Tesla (check the link in my sig if you're skeptical).

The results just seem like complete validation of what we see in EVs' future success.

Thanks for the correction. I'm proud of the fact that I predicted fairly accurately the reservation success. I hope we get an update today on the one-week count.

 

[doubeld]

So out of all of these responses, only 16 people had guessed that there would be over 325,000 reservations within one year.

Props for hcsharp for guessing really close early on with his 290,000 guess, although he changed it to 434,000 to beat ratsbew - you called it!
However, it was a late entry, and perhaps with a bit of news coverage gave him a good help - but EinSV came in really close with 350,000. Two other pretty high guesses, but we all pretty much low-balled it!

EinSV - you've got mail!

 

[hcsharp]

Props for hcsharp for guessing really close early on with his 290,000 guess, although he changed it to 434,000 to beat ratsbew - you called it!

Did I win the prize behind the curtain?

prolly not, but thanks for mentioning my name!

 

[EinSV]

So out of all of these responses, only 16 people had guessed that there would be over 325,000 reservations within one year.

Props for hcsharp for guessing really close early on with his 290,000 guess, although he changed it to 434,000 to beat ratsbew - you called it!
However, it was a late entry, and perhaps with a bit of news coverage gave him a good help - but EinSV came in really close with 350,000. Two other pretty high guesses, but we all pretty much low-balled it!

EinSV - you've got mail!

While I commend you doubled for running a 'clean' lottery, I really can't accept this honor. I will happily concede the crown (and prize) for the first week's guess to hcsharp. I would never have imagined in January that Tesla would get anywhere close to 300K reservations in the first week, but hcsharp nailed it. I am in awe!

 

[NicoV]

24 hrs: 50k
week: 100k
month: 200k
year: 500k

I'm going to explain my reasoning instead of just posting numbers.
By end of march there will be between 100k-150k Model S or X owners. They know there is no risk in giving Tesla a couple of thousand dollar/euro for a registration. This is even more true for people outside the USA: there will be (tens?) of thousands of model E produced before the the first one is delivered outside the USA, so there isn't even a risk of getting a car with child diseases. A fair amount of Tesla owners will want an extra car within 3 years, they know they need to register on day 1 to get their car within 3 years (My Model S hasn't been delivered yet, but I will reserve a Model 3 on day one because I have to replace my 16 year old Toyota Corolla in a couple of years). Add to this the people who want a Tesla but can't justify the price of an X or S, they will also register on day 1. Considering these 2 groups of buyers, 50k will probably be conservative.
Fast forward 1 week. By then it's in the news how many preordered model E's there are. Anyone hesitating will place their rgistration.
Witihin a month, lease companies will register cars by the hundreds or the thousands out of fear of not getting anything to lease within 2 years of release. (In my country, lease companies are already predicting that Model 3 will be a big hit with company lease cars because of the fiscal situation of EV cars).
After a month, most people registring will be people that still have some doubts or people that just heard about Tesla).

Amazing that my estimate, which was considered wildly optimistic by a lot of people when I posted this, proved to be a shamefull underestimation....

 

[hcsharp]

While I commend you doubled for running a 'clean' lottery, I really can't accept this honor. I will happily concede the crown (and prize) for the first week's guess to hcsharp. I would never have imagined in January that Tesla would get anywhere close to 300K reservations in the first week, but hcsharp nailed it. I am in awe!

stop it you're making me blush

 

[doubeld]

I don't see there being more than 100,000 Model 3 reservations by the time deliveries start.

Was just going through this thread again for posterity and a good laugh. I really wished we could have got a 1-year reservation count.

 

[Bluejuice]

Week: 25000
Month: 50,000
Year: 100,000

I'll be the first one to happily eat crow and admit I WAAAAAAYYYY underestimated. Should have known better with Tesla & Elon Musk.

 

[dhanson865]

Week: 25000
Month: 50,000
Year: 100,000

I'll be the first one to happily eat crow and admit I WAAAAAAYYYY underestimated. Should have known better with Tesla & Elon Musk.

and I guessed

Week 42,000
Month 75,000
Year 113,000

higher than you on every count but still comically wrong on every one as well. I can't even remember my exact thoughts on why I guessed so low vs actual. My entire mental view of the situation has changed so much.

It will be interesting when not employees start configuring and we see people posting reservation/confirmation numbers.

 

[hcsharp]

I got my prize! I've been away for a couple of weeks and just returned to this goody box worthy of true Canadian generosity! Kudos to the OP