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Model 3 Reservation Guess Lottery

Like so many others out there, getting super stoked for March. Model 3 release, cat ski trip, and oh yeah, having a baby :biggrin:. But we all want to know how many reservations there are going to be!!
I doubt they'll have a hit counter on their web site, so we'll have to have another thread that are for reservations so that we can get a good handle on date of reservation and what the sequence is to that date. I can't offer much, but since I'm setting up this thread, I'll throw a prize someone's way if they are really close to the actual.

Let's have three date ranges. One post per person please. I'd say no edits will be allowed after any "official" specs of the car get released.

Guesses for:
  • One week after the reveal (let's say the first day up until midnight does not count, so if the release is March 31st @ 21:00 -0800, the one week will end April 7th at midnight, PST)
  • One month after the reveal
  • One year after the reveal


some guy
Jan 24, 2013
Week - 5,800
Month - 16,500
Year - 127,000

pent up demand is already there. Longer term it's all about what the car "looks like", right? Mass market & all that. I'll probably reserve early. We should all be lobbying hard for a pickup truck already.

Lots of initial excitement for enthusiasts and during the media frenzy surrounding launch. Some people will come later due to word of mouth. Deposits will flatten because most people won't be inclined to reserve too far in advance of production, but will wait until production ramp is well along and delivery times are in the two-month range. Highly dependent on what the required deposit amount is.


Well-Known Member
Feb 17, 2013
United States
24hrs; 30k
Week; 100k
Month; 500k
Year; 1M

If the M3 can dominate its segment like its big bro dominated... Tesla is going to have a hard time keeping up with demand.

I like the way you think! I too am very optimistic about the Model 3.

Quite optimistic indeed! Looks like I am the most pessimistic one here. I am not taking into account 24 hour estimates as I think it will be hard to determine real-time reservations. Especially if the reservations need to be manually processed or if they're done in batches.
Week: 65,000
Month: 120,000
Year: 275,000

Model 3 is going to be huge. There are tons of people who want the "cheap Tesla". I also think that a lot of wealthy Model S owners will be reserving 1-3 Model 3s for their children.

Notice: if you already own a Tesla, you're not allowed to reserve/order a Model 3 until mine's delivered! :wink:

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