Model 3 Reservation Guess Lottery

[Krugerrand]

I have absolutely no idea. So pulling random numbers from the nether region....

Week: 21,500
Month: 42, 500
Year: 207,500

 

[nwdiver]

WOW... most of us really missed on the low side... only ~30k on the first day? What was I thinking?

 

[vjason]

Hard to guess based on traffic to this site. Raleigh had 4 people register in the tracker, yet over 200 were there by 10AM. The earliest on the tracker was like 8:45AM, and there were probably 100 people there before that.

Raleigh has a tech-heavy presence (enough to warrant both (separate) sales and service centers), but is not a huge city. Of the early arrivals (I was #9) only 1 was an existing owner. I felt that having over 200 show up by 10AM was pretty impressive, and more were coming in as a left. Many late arrivals as there was simply not enough parking available and many had to park far away.

WOW... most of us really missed on the low side... only ~30k on the first day? What was I thinking?

 

[X Fan]

Early signs are very promising.

In person/employees: could see 40K today.
Online: Add another 30K and

70K in one day is possible.

 

[doubeld]

Ok, I am closing the polls at 8:30PDT so get your final guesses in now! With at least 100 people reserving at each store, we're probably talking minimum 15,000 from in-store reservations only, but who knows. And I hope that we can actually find out what our reservation numbers are.

 

[Yuri_G]

Week: 500k
Month: 1 million
Year: 2 million

I think this is the rate people will be reserving with online reservations factored in. I have no idea how Tesla will manage those kinds of numbers, however.

 

[Kenypowa]

Week 750,000
Month 1.25 million
Year 3 million

this is total pipe dream but I think today's in store line up blew past even the most optimistic estimate.

 

[AdamSM]

Week: 200,000
Month: 250,000
Year: 600,000

 

[c041v]

I'm updating too. With a lot of employees getting first in line and previous owners getting the ability to jump in front of everyone else, I think the uptake will be much bigger.
I sure hope we get reservation numbers listed... doesn't look like any of the employee Model 3 reservations have numbers attached yet.

Week: 35,140
Month: 58,275
Year: 213,980

I ran some quick numbers for the week;

~220 Galleries x 100 ppl/Gallery x 20% multiple reservations = 26,400 for the day in store only
Add another 3,500 for SpaceX/Tesla Employees
Online reservations will probably be around another 20,000 for the day.
I think most of the pent-up demand will be released in the first month, but as word spreads, the reservations will keep ticking up to this supposed cap of 200,000...

So;

Week: 55,000
Month: 80,000
Year: 200,000

Assuming it gets capped.

 

[X Fan]

Based on on-site reports, 100 per store seems low......my son said 90 minute wait at Charlotte this morning

 

[NannerAirCraft]

Week: 125,000
Month: 250,000
Year: 600,000

 

[ccutrer]

There were 300+ at SLC at 10am, continuing to grow. A friend said he "finally got through shortly after 12." I'm gonna say 300 per store today (some stores were obviously fewer, and others more; I was surprised for such a large demand in such a small market here). But I also think it will flatline for most of 1 month and 1 year.

So....

24 hours: 75k
1 week: 125k
1 month: 150k
1 year: 200k

 

[dhanson865]

Week: 65,000
Month: 120,000
Year: 275,000

Model 3 is going to be huge. There are tons of people who want the "cheap Tesla". I also think that a lot of wealthy Model S owners will be reserving 1-3 Model 3s for their children.

True but they'll have to game the system some. It's limit 2 per person on reservations so they'll have to reserve 2 in one name and 1 in another.

I'll go with:

Week 42,000
Month 75,000
Year 113,000

 

[pmich80]

Week: 32,000
Month: 48,000
Year: 95,000

 

[X Fan]

WeeK: 45,000
Month: 75,000
Year: 125,000

 

[Gerasimental]

At reveal event (if mentioned): 50k
Week: 80k
Month: 110k
Year: 250k

 

[masseydnc]

Model 3 is going to be huge. There are tons of people who want the "cheap Tesla". I also think that a lot of wealthy Model S owners will be reserving 1-3 Model 3s for their children.

I'm thinking about reserving two Model 3s myself -- one in NC where I live and one for pick up in Fremont, CA, in case I need to fly across the country to get mine before the $7500 rebate expires, then drive it back across the country. I'd cancel the reservation I don't use and get that $1000 back. I wonder how many other people are doing the same thing and thus inflating the reservation numbers?

 

[EinSV]

My two earlier guesses on other threads were WAY too conservative. I'm going with 350,000 first week (250,000 by the end of the day 4/1), 500,000 first month, 750,000 first year.

 

[Mod3l 4 me]

Well, the spreadsheet for line updates has the total for lines at their peak of 27,333. That's just the US. I'm guessing total reservations will double the peak lines, so about 55K. The demand internationally seemed a lot less. So another 15K is up to 70K in store today.

Another 50K online is my guess so:

120K in 36 hrs (12 hrs store, 24 online)
150K Week
250K Month
450K Year

 

[M0delTree]

Week: 125,000
Month: 200,000
Year: 450,000