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AlanSqB
Dog Chauffeur
Honestly, all tax credits for other manufacturers should expire at the same time Tesla's do. Its ridiculous that others have been able to sit on the sidelines for so long now and will be able to "swoop in" and offer cars with a tax credit, potentially undercutting the few companies who actually innovated and made an early investment.
I don't the incentive was envisioned to fruition when it was written. My guess is that most people didn't honestly think anyone would reach 200k EVs. One manufacturer makes 50k and fails, another makes 30k and fails, etc. This outcome was probably not anticipated.
Tam
Well-Known Member
boiler81
Member
Guess I should feel lucky. After waiting 4.5 hours in line and reserving, I got a handshake from the store manager and photo taken by the sales rep. after reserving. I guess that was my receipt
Tam
Well-Known Member
CuriousG
Active Member
There are no other cars out in the same class as the Model 3. The Bolt is scheduled for later this year. By your same definition it is vaporware too.
Why would I be drooling? I already have a Model S.
I have never stood in line for an iPhone so no need to put others in the same category.
So what do you guys think the actual amount of people actually buying the car? I know Elon kept using the word 'order' in his Tweets, but the fact is that he mean 'pre-order'.
I bet there are a LOT of people that joined in just because of the hype. $1k is definitely not a small change, but I feel there's enough people that can afford not to have that amount of money on their bank account for the next few years (especially with the super low bank interest these days). There are also the number of people that find out that they can reserve 2 cars, and do so impulsively on the spot.
And we also don't know what's going to happen the next two years. I'm betting we'll see number of people drop out depending on their current situation. My guess is that 50-60% of pre-orders actually turn into sales, and that's me being optimistic.
I bet there are a LOT of people that joined in just because of the hype. $1k is definitely not a small change, but I feel there's enough people that can afford not to have that amount of money on their bank account for the next few years (especially with the super low bank interest these days). There are also the number of people that find out that they can reserve 2 cars, and do so impulsively on the spot.
And we also don't know what's going to happen the next two years. I'm betting we'll see number of people drop out depending on their current situation. My guess is that 50-60% of pre-orders actually turn into sales, and that's me being optimistic.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
And how many more people do you think will start placing orders as it gets closer to launch time?
Snow Drift
[Off-Road Assist] Activated
I assume the order rate will drop to next to nothing between now and the production reveal (event 2), followed by another drop until the production cars reach consumers driveways late 2017/early 2018.
brucet999
Active Member
Another factor that will affect peoples' wait times will be Tesla's policy to give build schedule priority to cars with more options included. S70s tend to take longer in the queue than do S85s and they wait longer than P85s. Tesla will likely favor more heavily loaded configurations on the Model 3 as well.
Yes the rate of orders is likely to drop off, but the total will continue to grow. By the time the Model 3 production line starts working in late 2017 (if all goes well) I can envision the reservation total could exceed 400,000. At which point people will start seeing Model 3's on the road and then in the showrooms and the order rate could accelerate. That is why I think Tesla will announce a second factory location in a year or two, and start building the second factory soon after announcing it. Simultaneously, Tesla will announce a second Gigafactory location.
@diamond.g - apology I don't recognize that number. Again, it was just a guess on my part. Some articles on line suggested that priority was given to employees, follow-by existing Tesla owner, west cost resident, and east cost. I have a funny feeling they might increase their price. I am not talking about with options but just the base version.
Snow Drift
[Off-Road Assist] Activated
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
No email or Reservation # in My Tesla.
I reserved at Pasadena on 31st around 12:30pm.
As of last night (4/1), cc charge was still pending.
CC Company says they are just waiting for Tesla to process it.
I hope reservation priority is not related to when you get the Reservation #
Either of you still waiting? Still nothing for me. My credit card charge is finalized and complete, but I've heard not a peep from Tesla. Guess it's time to start calling around.
No they won't, quite the contrary. Tesla is unlikely to exceed 200K US sales until they are already shipping the Model 3 in volume.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
To close the loop on this, in case either of you are still waiting, I called the main US sales number about 30 minutes ago and spoke to someone who took down my information and said he would "pass it to the team looking into these". Within 30 minutes of hanging up I got my email and the RN now shows up in MyTesla with a reservation date of 3/31.
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