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Model 3 Reservation Prediction thread

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by rdalcanto, Feb 11, 2016.

  1. rdalcanto

    rdalcanto Member

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    I am trying to come up with an educated guess on Model 3 reservations. I bet every Model S owner knows at least 5 people that would love a Tesla, but can't afford a Model S. Many Model S owners probably intend on getting a Model 3 for a family member. With 100,000 Model S owners, I predict at least 200,000 reservations by the end of April, and 500,000 by end of 2016. Any other guesses?
     
  2. Fallenone

    Fallenone Active Member

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    Andrea said she estimated Tesla has maybe one million test drives so far. I think converting half of them to reservation holders is not that hard right?
     
  3. CmdrThor

    CmdrThor Member

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    There are a lot of people who will want a Model 3 eventually but won't necessarily want to let Tesla sit on $1,000 for years. My prediction would be 50,000 in the first few months and 100,000 by the end of the year. The low $1,000 price will help drive reservations from people who aren't quite sure whether they will actually purchase the vehicle though.
     
  4. Chickenlittle

    Chickenlittle Active Member

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    Would agree except for one factor, it's already been a long wait and most realize they will need to reserve early to get a chance for the federal tax rebate
     
  5. eloder

    eloder Member

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    Tesla has that Apple cult factor going on to some extent, in my opinion (and I'm caught up in it) so that's why I'm personally leaning on the side of it will defy expectations.

    Perhaps the Model 3 in-store reservation (glorious marketing decision, by the way) will give us the best initial indication.
     
  6. beeeerock

    beeeerock Active Member

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    Much will depend on what it looks like and what sort of performance numbers are promised. I expect both will be quite positive, because Tesla has shown no interest in building boxes like their 'competition' (term used very loosely!).

    I've never had a negative response from anyone I've taken for a drive. In fact, just the opposite - everyone has wanted a Model S but for the obstacle of the price. The idea of the Model 3 has always been the enthusiastic second choice.

    Obviously, everyone has their own budget and their own automobile life cycle... so some people simply won't be in a position to put money down right away. And many more will want to see how the car turns out - reliability, drive-ability etc. But given the fact that pretty much everyone I've taken for a spin has been interested in buying a Model 3, I expect the demand will be quite amazing. So much so that I'm planning to drive 350 km to be able to pony up at the nearest Tesla store. I don't want to be back a year in production because I waited for the next day to do it online!
     
  7. larmor

    larmor Member

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    I predict a large company needing a fleet or uber will pick up 100k cars. I think 500k mark come by mid 2016.
     
  8. FredTMC

    FredTMC Model S VIN #4925

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    Just thought I'd point out the obvious. 100K reservations = $100m. So, if tesla gets 500k reservations that's $500m cash to tesla.

    Ummm. That's ummm HUGE
     
  9. larmor

    larmor Member

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    That's a rounding error for apple or google, just sayin...
     
  10. FredTMC

    FredTMC Model S VIN #4925

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    totally true. But it's also almost half of Tesla's existing Cash On Hand. Tesla is only a $20B mkt cap

    it also speaks to concerns about Tesla's capital de-risking for scaling up for Model3 production

    it also translates to $25B in future revenue on those 500k cars (@ 50k avg selling price)
     
  11. Krugerrand

    Krugerrand Active Member

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    I'd predict that for North America. But reservations are being accepted globally...
     
  12. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

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    I was thinking easily 100,000 within days and a million by 6 months. I think there are easily 10 people who want a 3 for every Model S owner and $1000 is pretty reasonable IMO.
     
  13. Bimbels

    Bimbels GoldMember

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    I am more conservative as of today - I'm definitely a Tesla fanboi (girl) I don't see pre-launch reservations as high as others have speculated. Some current Tesla owners, and those who have been coveting but needed a lower price point - yes. But Tesla is still unknown to a LOT of people. Many who know are still wary of leaping into an EV. Those people aren't going to buy sight unseen IMO.

    The first thing people say about my MS is wow it costs a lot. But the next questions all revolve around range, charging, time added to road trips. These unknowns are daunting for many people. I think increased presence with superchargers as the network grows will help. Even though they aren't needed as much as people assume, shaking the "gas station down the street" idea isn't as easy for everyone else. It's a different way of thinking when planning trips and will take time to adjust to.

    Elon mentioned on the ER call that he would be open to advertising for the M3. I think getting the word out there not only by seeing the car on the road, being able to see in stores and test drive, but also education via advertising will help further the transition for some. Those people will need to see/feel/drive the M3 and feel comfortable with their driving habits/charging options.

    I do believe it will happen. And assuming the product is as amazing as we are hoping, I think it will be (relatively) dramatic at the reveal, with people like me and those who have been waiting for a Tesla for years rushing to order. But I'm guessing less than 100K reservations before the launch. Probably less than 70K. Regardless, I think it will be good overall and once the M3 is on the road and people see it in the wild, in the years following launch, deliveries will grow exponentially.

    That said, I hope I'm wrong and reservations are nuts. That'll get the rest of the industry talking.
     
  14. Newb

    Newb Member

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    I also think every reservation count above 100k is nuts. My guess is 20k within 24 hours and 80k by the end of the year (that would be X reservations times 4 to 5, roughly speaking).

    The Tesla fan base is growing worldwide but Tesla Motors is still unkown to the masses. We need more videos going viral, and perhaps, we also need more fan-made ads in the traditional media (magazines, TV, cinema, etc)

    To add, traditional auto-makers (and their mass media friends) will continue to talk Tesla down (at least this is what's happening in Germany) and spread fear and doubt about Tesla's future, with regards to Tesla's balance sheet (losses), production & QC problems and what not. Then again, most media outlets will point to the many delays of the Model X launch and slow ramp up, and question the delivery estimates.

    So, I expect lots of feat mongering a la "You pay one grande now and you'd probably get your car in 3-4 years time, and not next year".

    This will all have a negative impact on actual reservations. Don't expect crazy numbers here.
     
  15. Johann Koeber

    Johann Koeber Member

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    All your reservations (no pun intended) seem valid.

    There are over 100.000 Tesla owners out there now.

    If each of those just reserves one M3 or has a friend that reserves an M3, that will give you over 100.000.

    So I voted for more than 100.000 in 2016. This will finally help the stock price and give Tesla credibilty in the market (suppliers, banks etc.) Even in Germany where the ETA will pobably be latter half of 2018, I expect a lot of reservations.
     
  16. uselesslogin

    uselesslogin Enthusiast

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    Hmm, good point. I would almost think 300,000 reservations then considering that point. But we need to be honest, we have no idea. But I am thinking the number will be high enough to shock the industry. I don't think they understand how much people want this car.
     
  17. Hogfighter

    Hogfighter Professional Lurker

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    100,000 in the first week is my prediction. SO many people have been waiting for this car.
     
  18. pmadflyer

    pmadflyer Member

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    Person A: "did you hear that (engineer friend) got an electric car?"

    Person B: "Yeah, so did (doctor friend), says it's the safest car out there."

    Person A: "I'm going to have to look into that."
     
  19. Troy

    Troy Member

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    #19 Troy, Feb 12, 2016
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2016
    I calculated that only the first 17,500 Model 3 buyers in USA will get the full federal tax credits. More details HERE. My guess is, number of reservations will exceed this within days after online reservations open on the 1st of April. If Tesla comes out says, "We have 40,000+ global reservations", you are already too late for full tax credits. You might get half ($3750 USD).
     
  20. Cebe

    Cebe Member

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    I think the website will crash on April 1st, when everybody hits it. By the time all is said and done, within a week, easily six digits.
     

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