Wiki Model 3 Reservation Tally

[Wiki]

Date/Time	Tally
2016-05-15	373,000 (2)
2016-04-13	392,000 (1)
2016-04-07 10:21	325,000
2016-04-02 23:59	276,000
2016-04-02 07:00	253,000
2016-04-01 19:26	232,000	2016-04-01 10:23	198,000	2016-04-01 09:11	180,000
2016-03-31 20:30	115,000

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(1) Electrek reported by Tesla VP BusDev at AVERE E-mobility Conference as near 400k, assuming 392k (conservative estimate)

(2) SEC filing Tesla Motors - Prospectus Filed Pursuant to Rule 424

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From Thread: Chart for Model 3 Reservations (Cumulative and Hourly) with Interactive version here: https://goo.gl/6Ykex8

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From tmoz. Orders in Hundreds of Thousands. Orders = 325,000(1-exp(-hours/29hrs)). Rsquare goodness of fit is 0.996

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As per Tweet timeline. (Note: time is not to scale)

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[Paul Carter]

Elon has been tweeting the tally of the reservations received so far. The 2nd post is a wiki that I'll keep updated as numbers are released.

 

[MikeC]

Great idea, but it looks like the X-axis intervals are evenly spaced even though the time between each X-axis point varies? This would result in an inaccurate curve.

 

[Paul Carter]

Great idea, but it looks like the X-axis intervals are evenly spaced even though the time between each X-axis point varies? This would result in an inaccurate curve.

I'll try and normalize the time period in my next update. Added a table of the data for now.

 

[SCW-Greg]

One has already been started...
Chart for Model 3 reservations — cumulative and hourly

 

[Paul Carter]

One has already been started...
Chart for Model 3 reservations — cumulative and hourly

Thanks, I'll see if we can get included in the tracker and would be good to add that to a Tally thread.

 

[Pshooter]

Nice job. However, is it possible that the dates for the 115,000 (4/1) and 180,000 (3/31) are incorrect?

 

[BravoSarah]

@elonmusk just posted: 276k Model 3 orders by end of Sat

 

[Paul Carter]

Nice job. However, is it possible that the dates for the 115,000 (4/1) and 180,000 (3/31) are incorrect?

Thanks, Fixed (had 2nd and 3rd dates mixed up). Waiting on the mods to make the 2nd post a wiki so I can update the graph and table.

 

[xmetal]

That is pretty amazing! I was at the store 2 hours before opening and based on the spreadsheet here that had only 3 other people from the forum, I wasn't expecting much. When I got there 4 min after the doors to the mall opened, I was already about 20th in line and it swelled to hundreds. Clearly this car has been what a lot of people want and the genius $1000 reservation is low enough that people in the target demographic are easily on board.

By a napkin-based calculation, assuming that most stores processed through people at a roughly similar rate, with the number of stores in my timezone, I think I am in the first 1000, which is nice to consider. Seems like this was one of those times that sleeping in would have a pretty hefty long-term result. Of course being EST I'll have a longer wait anyways.

 

[Merrill]

How will Tesla manage to produce that many vehicles when they are having a hard time getting 10,000 to 20,000 model X delivered. It is great that that many want a model 3 but they will need to change lots of things as they exist today to do that.

 

[eloder]

How will Tesla manage to produce that many vehicles when they are having a hard time getting 10,000 to 20,000 model X delivered. It is great that that many want a model 3 but they will need to change lots of things as they exist today to do that.

You mean like making a car that has no falcon wing doors, no auto-extending handles, a very simple interior, made mostly of steel, a traditional notchback trunk, no panoramic windshield, and no instrument panel?

 

[Beryl]

How will Tesla manage to produce that many vehicles when they are having a hard time getting 10,000 to 20,000 model X delivered. It is great that that many want a model 3 but they will need to change lots of things as they exist today to do that.

Among other things, they will need to increase manufacturing staff. Great for USA job seekers.

 

[TFHutch]

I expect with 250,000 orders today, there may additional manufacturing facilities around the world built or bought.

 

[Ed Hart]

I need a new electric car, a smaller one to go with my S. Pondering the Bolt vs 3 (with tough firmly in cheek). The Bolt might be very practical, but if we asked Chevy how many reservations it has for the car, I will be it is a very small number....if any....and those are probably shifting!
I just heard that Model 3 reservations are close to 290,000.

 

[Lerxt]

Tesla is going to be doing a massive hiring expansion to prepare for production very soon. Not to mention raising capital...

 

[J3diMast3r]

Latest tweet from Elon (from over 12 hours ago):

"276k Model 3 orders by end of Sat"


Source: Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[AlexT]

...I just heard that Model 3 reservations are close to 290,000.

Source?

 

[jbcarioca]

Putting this in context, BMW produced 476,792 3-series in 2015. Imagine Tesla pre-selling 276,000 by Saturday night? That really beggars belief. More than 55% of the 3-series annual sales done in less than a week!

 

[Breezy]

Just a suggestion, but I think "zero" should really be at 10AM daylight saving time in Sydney on March 31, when the first stores opened for reservations. That was 3/30/2016 23:00 UTC.