Model S, Model X, or Model Y?

[E Dizzle]

Here is our scenario. We are a family of 4 needing an EV next spring until the Cybertruck comes out late 2021, about 18 months. We preordered the dual motor with FSD. Our Ioniq hybrid's lease ends in April 2020 and we want to go electric!

So my thinking is I don't want to spend more than $60-65k. That leaves me with 3 choices that have enough cargo space for our family, the Model S is the smallest we could go.

2020 Model Y- new technology, but big hit on depreciation in 18 months

2016 Model S- AP1, depreciation would be less

2016 Model X- AP1, always wanted one, depreciation would be less

I'd love any suggestions/advice. Thanks!

 

[KJD]

I would go for the Model Y to get a new car warranty, and the newest technology.

 

[MichaelP90DL]

The Model X gives you a lot of room and I love the doors. Uber cool to roll up at a 7-Eleven and pop the doors. But you can find various kinds of used Model 3s under $45,000. Lots of them on CarGurus.com.

 

[ucmndd]

I’d be super leery about buying an early Model X. So many build/quality/reliability problems.

 

[E Dizzle]

I would go for the Model Y to get a new car warranty, and the newest technology.

I agree it would be sweet to have the latest technology, but I'm worried about taking a huge loss in 18 months when I trade it in for the Cybertruck. Do you think it would be a huge hit or not that bad?

 

[MichaelP90DL]

Initial depreciation on a new car is usually severe. In your circumstance, where you want to end up with a Cybertruck, you'll take a far softer hit with a used car with no known problems. S, 3 or X. You can also spend far less than you mentioned in your first post.

 

[KJD]

I agree it would be sweet to have the latest technology, but I'm worried about taking a huge loss in 18 months when I trade it in for the Cybertruck. Do you think it would be a huge hit or not that bad?

Really hard to say how much the loss will be, I think the Y will be very popular, but there will be some depreciation for sure.

I would also say that AP1 is going to seem like really old technology 2 years from now, so there will also be some serious depreciation with that choice as well.

 

[Alysashley79]

If it was me I’d go with the S just because the major depreciation will have already happened. That being said. My guess is that when the Y comes out the Older S values will drop again as people make the move to trade from S to Y.

I love my S and wouldn’t ever drive a 3. But I would drive the Y.

 

[E Dizzle]

I’d be super leery about buying an early Model X. So many build/quality/reliability problems.

The ones I'm looking at on ev-cpo are mostly 75D's with vins in the 17,000 range. Would a later built 75D be better?

 

[Rogue Synapse]

I’m not sure you can count on having a Model Y soon after the end of your lease in April, especially if you haven’t already secured a spot in line. They’re saying first deliveries “late 2020” for Model Y, and even though there are several convincing rumors that production will begin earlier in the year, there will still be several hundred thousand preorders they will have to get through before you’d get yours.

I agree with others that if you’re really planning on getting rid of the interim car after you get a Cybertruck, you’d take a pretty unfavorable depreciation hit with such a short ownership period of a new car compared to a used car with the steepest depreciation already priced in.

Of the used Teslas that have enough space for you (assuming Model 3 doesn’t), I think your budget will only probably get you the shorter-range, initial production Model X which were fraught with build quality and reliability issues. I think your budget would get you a much more solid Model S, so that’s my recommendation, though take it with a grain of salt coming from this Model S owner posting on the Model S forum.

 

[Galinette]

Go for a S : lowest depreciation, lowest number of problems on falcon doors, etc...

As other said you won’t have an Y early 2020 and you should be prepared for having a cyber truck in 2021 as well.

 

[Alysashley79]

The ones I'm looking at on ev-cpo are mostly 75D's with vins in the 17,000 range. Would a later built 75D be better?

do you mean 170,000 vin? with Tesla go for your budget first. Your must haves and then wants. Personally as long as Tesla is still giving tier warranty with used cars I’d go with them. Just gives you more peace of mind during your couple years. 75,s are great. P85ds are even better.

one last thing there’s time. There’s Tesla time. And then there’s Elon’s time. The three don’t ever happen a the same time. I’d be willing to bet the first cybertruck won’t roll off until 2022.

 

[Chuq]

So when the Cybertruck comes out, you're going to sell this car? Probably not worth buying a car for 18 months. If you really need to, and it really needs to be a Tesla, get the oldest, cheapest Model S you can find.

 

[E Dizzle]

do you mean 170,000 vin? with Tesla go for your budget first. Your must haves and then wants. Personally as long as Tesla is still giving tier warranty with used cars I’d go with them. Just gives you more peace of mind during your couple years. 75,s are great. P85ds are even better.

one last thing there’s time. There’s Tesla time. And then there’s Elon’s time. The three don’t ever happen a the same time. I’d be willing to bet the first cybertruck won’t roll off until 2022.

Sorry, I should have clarified. I was looking at Model X's with vins in the 17,000 range. The Model S were all above 155,000 vins. I agree buying used through Tesla makes the most sense for having the warranty. Thanks for the feedback!

 

[E Dizzle]

So when the Cybertruck comes out, you're going to sell this car? Probably not worth buying a car for 18 months. If you really need to, and it really needs to be a Tesla, get the oldest, cheapest Model S you can find.

I know it's not the best financial decision, but I'm tired of driving gas and we're ready to start practicing what we preach. lol It seems like a used Model S has the best bang for your buck when it comes to options and reliability.

 

[bob_p]

Assuming you are going to keep the vehicle for more than a few months, depreciation on all of the options should be the same, since long term depreciation appears to average about 2% per month (unless Tesla does another significant price decrease or increase).

Tesla is currently showing a few 2018 X 75Ds, starting at $68K - which would have AP2. By next April, these vehicles should depreciate another 10%, reaching the OP's price range.

 

[maximizese]

A year ago I would have learned towards a used Model S as the best value given it's relatively lower price, unlimited Supercharging, free connectivity, and SOC 10-80% in just 45 minutes. However a lot has changed where the Model S might not be all that it once was. Of course, paying for connectivity IMHO is not a big deal at all (you don't get something for nothing), free Supercharging also isn't a huge deal unless you road-trip over 10K miles a year, but the kick in the pants is the longer and slower Supercharging sessions as a result of the new software update. The latter is not an issue if you seldom Supercharge/road trip but it is discouraging that the older Model S is losing capabilities.

I would strongly consider trading in our 2013 MS85 for a Model Y if the interior is at least halfway between the S and the 3. I would love to have more range and faster Supercharging rates, but not many of my friends and family would be thrilled to ride in a Model 3 interior.

 

[geoffmanley]

So when the Cybertruck comes out, you're going to sell this car? Probably not worth buying a car for 18 months. If you really need to, and it really needs to be a Tesla, get the oldest, cheapest Model S you can find.

I agree with this, additionally the warranty issue should be moot since you will only keep it for 18 months. Any used car you buy through Tesla will be warrantied for the entire time you have it, unless you put crazy miles on it. If you buy through a private party, I would only get it if it has the extended warranty. I'd be inclined though to go with an X, I love the look and the extra interior space.

 

[Rogue Synapse]

I would strongly consider trading in our 2013 MS85 for a Model Y if the interior is at least halfway between the S and the 3. I would love to have more range and faster Supercharging rates, but not many of my friends and family would be thrilled to ride in a Model 3 interior.

Pretty sure that the Model Y interior is going to be fairly identical to Model 3.

 

[E Dizzle]

Assuming you are going to keep the vehicle for more than a few months, depreciation on all of the options should be the same, since long term depreciation appears to average about 2% per month (unless Tesla does another significant price decrease or increase).

Tesla is currently showing a few 2018 X 75Ds, starting at $68K - which would have AP2. By next April, these vehicles should depreciate another 10%, reaching the OP's price range.

Thanks for the response. Another question I have is it worth it to get a S90D over S75D even though the 90 batteries are known for worse degradation? There are a lot of 90D in the 53-58k range through Tesla.