Model S Reservation Tally

[Norbert]

Yes, as it turns out the Signature numbers are a done deal anyway. From here on out its all about the trendline of the General Production reservations.

Signatures are at an end in the US (and Canada), but this means that GP will take over that dynamic.

Returning to Disco's remarks if we focus on the General Production trendline and look back a year, the increase in reservations is a little less than 7,000 reservations per year. That, as you point out, is a global total without any cancellations factored in.

So while the numbers look promising, we're still less than 35% of the target 20,000 a year.

However if you look at the interpolation for the total numbers (which I do), as it develops currently, then we are at about 50%. And we still only have short test drive impressions, test drives only available to those who already have a reservation, no word-of-mouth from owners yet, uncertainty about volume production, and a waiting time of almost a year, no confirmation from NHTSA about the crash test ratings, no SuperChargers, still unresolved discussion of cupholders, still increasing numbers of shops, etc.

 

[Larry Chanin]

However if you look at the interpolation for the total numbers (which I do), as it develops currently, then we are at about 50%.

Hi Norbert,

Did you mean extrapolate from the more recent reservations rates?

And we still only have short test drive impressions, test drives only available to those who already have a reservation, no word-of-mouth from owners yet, uncertainty about volume production, and a waiting time of almost a year, no confirmation from NHTSA about the crash test ratings, no SuperChargers, still unresolved discussion of cupholders, still increasing numbers of shops, etc.

Yes we know that there are uncertainties, but I'm not sure I follow the point you are trying to make. Do you have an opinion regarding whether these factors will increase the reservation rate or slow it down?

Larry

 

[Norbert]

Did you mean extrapolate from the more recent reservations rates?

Where the interpolated curve is right now (modulo minor fluctuations).

Yes we know that there are uncertainties, but I'm not sure I follow the point you are trying to make. Do you have an opinion regarding whether these factors will increase the reservation rate or slow it down?

As perceived uncertainties are resolved, the reservation rates will continue to increase (unless something unexpected happens). My point is that there are many factors which will improve within the coming months.

 

[PeterW]

547 in 20 days for *only* general production. 27/day, 810/m0nth, 9720/year. Statistically less than optimal sample size. Would be cool if someone could maintain a trend of # of reservations per day. I remember the middle of last year it was about 7 to 9 per day on average. I'd bet there is a steady trend upwards with spikes around events. Lower gas prices could abate the flow, but 20K per year is not far off at 55/day. We are half way there already!

Even at that rate 20,000 units for 2013 is a done deal. They have the rest of this year and all of next for reservations to ramp up to 20k.
More likely IMO is Tesla will have to produce more than 20k units in 2013 just to close the gap between order and delivery.

 

[Morristhecat]

1) Reservation # 353, 2nd July 2012
2) Can
3) General Production

 

[Rifleman]

1) Reservation # 353, 2nd July 2012
2) Can
3) General Production

Welcome and Congratulations!

 

[kevincwelch]

Awesome.

The "known" tally has exceeded 10000.

 

[ryanjm]

My cousin Pat just became Reservation Sequence #10003 yesterday! Congrats to him even though he'll never read this!

 

[ev_norse]

1) Reservation #1033 (my own) & #1034 (my colleague), 4th July 2012
2) Europe
3) General Production

 

[VolkerP]

great first post, ev_norse! welcome to the forum.

 

[100thMonkey]

Region: Seattle area (US)
Model S #10,072
Date Reserved 7/4/2012
General Production
currently thinking the 85 kW pack, panoramic sunroof, sound package, leather,
was told we'd be seeing the car within 10-12 months.

 

[ckessel]

Reservations are really flying post-launch. I wonder what the likelihood is of 2013 being sold out before 2012 finishes?

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Reservations are really flying post-launch. I wonder what the likelihood is of 2013 being sold out before 2012 finishes?

I'd be skeptical, but its a possibility. I haven't looked at the latest reservation totals, but I think its ~13,000ish not counting cancellations. If we ignore cancellations and assume Tesla delivers 5,000 by the end of 2012, that would imply a need for 12,000 reservations by years end, or more than 2,000 units/month. That is really, REALLY far off of the trend line which would make it seem impossible. However, 2,000 units is really a small number in the global market, so its not completely absurd. If Tesla had a real marketing effort and large numbers of showrooms 2,000/month would seem closer to failure than incredible success.

But for now, I expect sales to develop on the established trend. As we move into 2013 a variety of "Car of the Year" awards will be in play and I'd be a bit surprised if Tesla doesn't win some biggies. Those types of awards have the potential to shift a trend, much more than regular reviews will. Until then the critical path will likely be new store openings. In both the long and short term those will do more to drive sales growth than any other factor.

 

[Thumper]

I just posted on the corporate site this info. In the last 9 days, the reservation rate has been 110 per day. If it keeps up, we will have 19,525 new reservations in addition to the current 12,647. If 5,000 cars are delivered by years end, we would still have 27,172 pending reservations by Jan. 1 2013 and an additional 40,150 sales in 2013. We will need 3 shifts and weekends if TM is going to make a dent in the sales backlog!

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

I just posted on the corporate site this info. In the last 9 days, the reservation rate has been 110 per day. If it keeps up, we will have 19,525 new reservations in addition to the current 12,647. If 5,000 cars are delivered by years end, we would still have 27,172 pending reservations by Jan. 1 2013 and an additional 40,150 sales in 2013. We will need 3 shifts and weekends if TM is going to make a dent in the sales backlog!

Wow. 110/day is outstanding.

I've been out trolling every Model S thread or comment section I come across for the last couple of weeks, and Pro Tesla comments seem to dominate. When I look at the economics of the car, its convenience, features and performance vs its competition I've always felt it should be a star performer and win a lot of sales from the E Class and 5 Series markets. Selling 20,000 next year doesn't even look like a lift based on the pre-launch order trend, and the 35,000 unit goal for 2014 also looks simple when you factor in Model X numbers.

But if Tesla manages to sustain 2,000+ unit reservations per month with only 20+ stores, 20 first drive reviews and 20+ cars on the road that would officially throw down the gauntlet against luxury ICE manufacturers. It could easily result in near term abandonment of ICE R&D in those vehicle classes, because nobody will want to invest in developing new power plants for a technology that will struggle to hold market share in the next decade.

 

[DrComputer]

We stopped by the Santa Monica store after participating in the 4th of July parade in our Roadsters and they said they've been averaging 30 reservations a day since the store opened a week ago. That's just from one store.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

I just posted on the corporate site this info. In the last 9 days, the reservation rate has been 110 per day. If it keeps up, we will have 19,525 new reservations in addition to the current 12,647. If 5,000 cars are delivered by years end, we would still have 27,172 pending reservations by Jan. 1 2013 and an additional 40,150 sales in 2013. We will need 3 shifts and weekends if TM is going to make a dent in the sales backlog!

Haha.. I got so blinded by the reservation rate I didn't see your comment about manufacturing.

It's not so terrible as that. The major time waster on the Model S production line is changing the tooling for different car configurations. Every time you change you want to produce as large of a batch as you can, because you can do that quickly. So to some extent there is a lot of slack in the system at the low 80 car/day rate they suggest is their goal. Increased sales means you can increase the batch size and production rate. I don't know the actual limits of the Tesla operation, but I wouldn't be surprised if they could at least hold the line with existing plans, even at a reservation rate of 110 cars/day.

And within limits, maintaining a healthy wait list can be a good thing. It forces people to commit to a reservation, even if they aren't certain they will purchase Model S, if only to give themselves the option to get it in a reasonable time. It's a lot easier to actually close a sale once you are in possession of a customer's money.

 

[todd6678]

Just based off the spreadsheet I've been keeping I'm seeing more of a 31-33 daily reservation rate. I'm not counting Hong Kong just yet, it seems very sketchy.

Just to touch on the production numbers. If Tesla can manage the 5k by the end of the year, they could easily manage 50k next year. Ramping up is not much of an issue at the nummi plant. I kind of assume they would do 20k and keep demand up a bit.

 

[brianman]

Just based off the spreadsheet I've been keeping I'm seeing more of a 31-33 daily reservation rate. I'm not counting Hong Kong just yet, it seems very sketchy..

Yah, my chart showed ~30 per day.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Just based off the spreadsheet I've been keeping I'm seeing more of a 31-33 daily reservation rate. I'm not counting Hong Kong just yet, it seems very sketchy.

Just to touch on the production numbers. If Tesla can manage the 5k by the end of the year, they could easily manage 50k next year. Ramping up is not much of an issue at the nummi plant. I kind of assume they would do 20k and keep demand up a bit.

30+/day is more in line with my expectations and what I had heard. 50,000/year would not be much of a stretch at all, though they would need to add a second shift or spend money on the +4 hour overtime rate for California. That would increase capacity by ~50% and can be done immediately, though I would only want to do that on an interim basis to give me flexibility on building out a second shift.