I wouldn't expect the production rate to be increased in the first or second year. They need to prove to themselves they can sustain 20,000 cars first before investing in an increase. If they hit the 20k per year for a couple years and still have a large backlog, it'll be increased.
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Model S Reservation Tally
- Thread starter Joel
- Start date
I wouldn't expect the production rate to be increased in the first or second year. They need to prove to themselves they can sustain 20,000 cars first before investing in an increase. If they hit the 20k per year for a couple years and still have a large backlog, it'll be increased.
Ok, my last post in this thread as I hate seeing that a new post has been added, exciting my inner self, then to my dismay and excitement to look at a new number update, I'm confronted with a random post by someone, which can become annoying. So sorry for being that annoying someone.
1 important thing to keep in mind with the reservation tally is those 246(someodd) people who have been transferred over to sigs, are not additions, just transfers. On top of those, there are a number of people who were sig res holders that downgraded, they would have been given a P number, which would be another duplicate. So in essence, when someone drops a reservation to a standard res, they could potentially be adding two false hits to the reservation tally. I'd assume, based off the 246 possible deferrals/cancellations/downgrades, we probably have around 500 false positives in the overall tally.
Yea, that's what michiganmodels "gross" vs "net" number is trying to accomodate.
with the couple of visits I have made to the Bellevue WA store, there were people signing checks each time! Space X's successful mission and the early release and excellent reviews of the S helped peak our interest and secure our reservation... there is a nice momentum building with this company, Elon Musk is proving to be a bit of a superstar with a level of magnetism not unlike Steve Jobs. I think Tesla is hitting a sweet spot with the S. After 18,000 EV miles on the Leaf, I can say that the S has surmounted virtually every shortcoming of previous EV's I've looked into and I think it's going to pay off with a rush of buyers as the word gets out, especially from the coming test drive events.
So it's been a couple of weeks since the first deliveries. Do we have any word yet on Tesla having made others? Assuming that they're making one salable Model S per day I would assume that they've got something like 10 more ready to go, right?
gg_got_a_tesla
Model S: VIN 65513, Model 3: VIN 1913
WhiteKnight
_____ P85 #549 _____ Sig Red / Sig White
I would expect there would be an initial burst of excitement over the first deliveries and test drives of the Model S and they could in fact be logging 110 new reservations per day BUT I would not expect that pace to continue for more than a couple weeks. In the end it is the expansion of stores that will drive increases in reservations.
Elon Musk is on record saying he thinks by 12/31/2012 he will have delivered 5,000 Model S and he'll be sitting on a 20,000 car reservation list at that point (in other words "sell out all of 2013 production by the end of 2012).
Elon Musk is on record saying he thinks by 12/31/2012 he will have delivered 5,000 Model S and he'll be sitting on a 20,000 car reservation list at that point (in other words "sell out all of 2013 production by the end of 2012).
Kipernicus
Model S Res#P1440
I was at Menlo Park on Saturday and saw a family pick up # 10,160
It's nice how the system issues a number on the spot these days.
It's nice how the system issues a number on the spot these days.
Vger
Active Member
It would be great if you could include a graph in the lead post with each update that shows the trend over time. I sense that the curve has bent up sharply lately. I would love to see the whole trend history!
Vger
Active Member
It's about two weeks out of date now, but perhaps of interest...
Model S Reservation and Delivery Tally
Citizen-T
Active Member
Here is the graph of the data I keep. The red line is worldwide reservations, the blue is US.
I think we will see 20k worldwide in October ( possibly just US reservations alone). This looks like it will grow like a bacteria to me :smile:
then the stock will follow the curve
then the stock will follow the curve
Citizen-T
Active Member
Rifleman
Now owns 2 Model S's!!!
We are getting closer to the 55 cars per day average that will be needed to sell 20,000 cars a year!
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
And that's a 30-day average...the first drives were just ~20 days ago. We should see that moving average jump up a bit in about 1-2 weeks.
Also, just to point it out: Musk said they need to sell ~8,000 Model S's/year to make a profit. 22 per day. That's a really good sign when the reservations at this point significantly exceed the profitability margin...
Now the wait begins...
WhiteKnight
_____ P85 #549 _____ Sig Red / Sig White
Just to be clear, I think Elon said they need to sell 8,000 per year to be cash flow positive. You can be cash flow positive and still lose money on a GAAP basis if you have large Depreciation and Amortization expenses (representing cash already spent in prior periods). Which Tesla clearly has with the large cost of developing Model S, building out their factory, etc.
Pretty soon you will need to show a delivered line, and see how it encroaches (if it does) on the orders.
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